Posted on 12/23/2004 8:24:16 PM PST by hole_n_one
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Thu Dec 23, 5:40 PM ET
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By JOHN ANTCZAK, Associated Press Writer
LOS ANGELES - There's a 1-in-300 chance that a recently discovered asteroid, believed to be about 1,300 feet long, could hit Earth in 2029, a NASA (news - web sites) scientist said Thursday, but he added that the perceived risk probably will be eliminated once astronomers get more detail about its orbit.
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There have been only a limited number of sightings of Asteroid 2004 MN4, which has been given an initial rating of 2 on the 10-point Torino Impact Hazard Scale used by astronomers to predict asteroid or comet impacts, said Donald Yeomans, manager of the Near Earth Object Program at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena.
No previously observed asteroid has been graded higher than 1.
On Friday, April 13, 2029, "we can't yet rule out an Earth impact," Yeomans said. "But the impact probability, as we call it, is 300-to-1 against an impact."
The asteroid was discovered in June and rediscovered this month.
"This is not a problem for anyone and it shouldn't be a concern to anyone, but whenever we post one of these things and ... somebody gets ahold of it, it just gets crazy," he said.
"In the unlikely event that it did hit, it would be quite serious. We're talking either a tsunami if it hit in the ocean, which would be likely, or significant ground damage," Yeomans said.
Its estimated size has been inferred from its brightness, which assumes that its reflectivity is similar to other asteroids that have been observed. At about 1,320 feet in length, it would have about 1,600 megatons of energy, Yeomans said.
Asteroid 2004 MN4 takes less than a year to go all the way around the sun and on each orbit it passes by Earth's orbit twice, Yeomans said. It is also nearly on the same plane as Earth's orbit.
The asteroid will be visible for the next several months and the NEO program has alerted its network of ground-based observers to include 2004 MN4 in their searches.
Yeomans said there have now been about 40 observations, first from the observatory at Kitt Peak, near Tucson, Ariz., and this month from Australia and New Zealand.
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On the Net:
Near-Earth Object Program: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov
The Cassandras and Jeremiahs are going to go wild reading this.......again!
Well, we are way past due. I don't doubt it may well happen sooner.
If it hits the U.S. it will solve the Social Security problem! (tongue in cheek)
Dooom. Dooom. Doom.
NOOOOOO WE'RE ALLLL GONNA DIEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!
Asteroid to hit earth, destroying planet.
Women and minorities affected most.
I actually went to the Spam Museum this past October - quite a nice little museum!!
You can always check out the impact forces here:
http://www.lpl.arizona.edu/impacteffects/
Given that it won't (in theory) hit the Earth until 25 years from now, how about developing an ion rocket and attaching it to the asteroid to slow it down enough so it can be parked in the gravitational zone between the Earth and the Moon? Given the generally very high quality of minerals you can get out of an asteroid, it might not be such a bad idea.
"Have you heard
It's in the stars
Next July
We collide with Mars
Well did you ever?"
"At 92 i'm not going to be concerned!"
Wrong attitude!
Correct Attitude follows...
Hey Baby, we are all gonna be dead in 2029, who cares what people think, come on baby, just once before the end of the world, just once... Oh baby Oh BABY...
I just love it when you comprimise, so from 2028 to 2029 you will take out the Trash, right?
Impact effects calculator;
http://www.lpl.arizona.edu/impacteffects/
NO worries, John F'n K has a plan.
It reminded you of Algore?
add a space elevator to your ion rocket/park the 'roid idea and we may be able to harvest asteroids quite readily. ;-)
So now if this asteroid hits the earth, we'll never find out who will be declared the winner in the 2004 Washington governor's race.
NY Times: Women and minorities to be hardest hit
Qwinn
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