Posted on 12/23/2004 8:24:16 PM PST by hole_n_one
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Thu Dec 23, 5:40 PM ET
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By JOHN ANTCZAK, Associated Press Writer
LOS ANGELES - There's a 1-in-300 chance that a recently discovered asteroid, believed to be about 1,300 feet long, could hit Earth in 2029, a NASA (news - web sites) scientist said Thursday, but he added that the perceived risk probably will be eliminated once astronomers get more detail about its orbit.
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There have been only a limited number of sightings of Asteroid 2004 MN4, which has been given an initial rating of 2 on the 10-point Torino Impact Hazard Scale used by astronomers to predict asteroid or comet impacts, said Donald Yeomans, manager of the Near Earth Object Program at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena.
No previously observed asteroid has been graded higher than 1.
On Friday, April 13, 2029, "we can't yet rule out an Earth impact," Yeomans said. "But the impact probability, as we call it, is 300-to-1 against an impact."
The asteroid was discovered in June and rediscovered this month.
"This is not a problem for anyone and it shouldn't be a concern to anyone, but whenever we post one of these things and ... somebody gets ahold of it, it just gets crazy," he said.
"In the unlikely event that it did hit, it would be quite serious. We're talking either a tsunami if it hit in the ocean, which would be likely, or significant ground damage," Yeomans said.
Its estimated size has been inferred from its brightness, which assumes that its reflectivity is similar to other asteroids that have been observed. At about 1,320 feet in length, it would have about 1,600 megatons of energy, Yeomans said.
Asteroid 2004 MN4 takes less than a year to go all the way around the sun and on each orbit it passes by Earth's orbit twice, Yeomans said. It is also nearly on the same plane as Earth's orbit.
The asteroid will be visible for the next several months and the NEO program has alerted its network of ground-based observers to include 2004 MN4 in their searches.
Yeomans said there have now been about 40 observations, first from the observatory at Kitt Peak, near Tucson, Ariz., and this month from Australia and New Zealand.
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On the Net:
Near-Earth Object Program: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov
It's true, Torino scale 4 now.
2004 MN4 Impact Risk
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html
What is remarkable is that the media makes a big story out of tiny rocks that come nowhere close to impacting the earth on a regular basis, and yet here is a rock the size of a small mountain with a real possibility of impact and the media hasn't said a word. I'd think they would be loving this.
They will love to blame it on GWB!
They were 1:300 just yesterday.
Yep. Then they were 1:64. Now they are 1:43.
Those odds are based on the margin of error on the orbital path, the center-line plus or minus a certain amount in two dimensions. The cross-section of the probable path is getting smaller as our measurements are becoming more precise, and the earth is still inside that path cross-section and a larger target as a percentage of that cross-section.
JPL and NASA have been given priority time on our deep-space sensor nets (including US Space Command assets if I am not mistaken) to develop a very precise orbital model of this rock. With this much effort being put into the measurement, eventually the orbital path cross-section will be smaller than the diameter of the Earth and we can say with a high degree of certainty whether or not it will hit the planet and roughly where if it does. We'll have a second chance to make fine-tuning corrections in 2013. Interesting stuff.
I would point out that based on the orbit of this rock, that it will be a regular recurring threat.
I would point out that based on the orbit of this rock, that it will be a regular recurring threat.Good point. 38 close passes over a 50 year period -- assuming of course it doesn't hit the Earth on one of the earlier passes. ;') Regardless, this should revitalize the US space program. I mean, who else has the resources to save the Earth from this? :'D
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LOL, I'll be 82 in 2029 so I don't think I'll worry either.
LOL! Maybe Social Security will be straightened out by then.
A more poignant observation is that there is a hell of a lot of rocks of this size that we haven't even noticed yet and we've only started looking. The rock in question is US State size obliterating event. Not a showstopper for life as we know it, but a serious inconvenience for anyone who catches a piece of it.
Quite agree. Radioastronomy is used to hunt for sun-side rocks, which are difficult or impossible to spot using visible light (because of the Sun swamping everything else). The Earth gives a come-hither to many an asteroid, tugging at them each time one passes or we pass one. Over time, some of those will come down.
Ten years or so ago, fired by the SL-9 impacts, there was a surge of interest in NEOs. For years thereafter the estimates of the number of unknown rocks was quite a lot larger than it is now. Partly that was due to grant-seeking. But the current accepted estimate of the numbers seems far too low.
I may drop dead while typing this messaiommmgda,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,unnnghhh
The Hazard of Near-Earth Asteroid Impacts on Earth
Frontiers ^ | 4 March 2004 | Clark R. Chapman
Posted on 12/02/2004 10:51:16 AM PST by SunkenCiv
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1292915/posts
Argument for the Cometary Origin of the Biosphere
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1208497/posts
Astronomers unravel a mystery of the Dark Ages
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1070892/posts
Catastrophic event preceded Dark Ages -- scientist
http://www.freerepublic.com/forum/a39b91ca42b27.htm
Celestial Collision
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1216757/posts
Early volcano victims discovered
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1207091/posts
Eltanin Impact Crater
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1248414/posts
Giant asteroid rocked Antarctica
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1248406/posts
Grains Found in Ga. Traced to Asteroid
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1198414/posts
Ice-Core Evidence Challenges 1620 BC date for the Santorini Eruption
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1180724/posts
Impact Event in 3114 BC? The beginning of a Turbulent Millennium
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/816604/posts
In the shadow of the Moon
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1203912/posts
It Came from Outer Space?
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1288537/posts
Peekskill Fireball -- October 9, 1992
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1234499/posts
Professor Says Mayan Calendar Does Not Portend Earth's Doom (2012AD)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/815326/posts
Reworked Images Reveal Hot Venus
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1058128/posts
Shocked Quartz from Chesapeake Asteroid
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1198414/posts
Small Asteroid Passes Between Satellites and Earth
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1307286/posts
Small Comets and Our Origins
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1250694/posts
When the Days Were Shorter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1234919/posts
Another related topic:
More on Asteroid Toutatis Passing Earth Sept 29th, 2004
Space.Com ^ | Sept 28th, 2004 | Robert Britt
Posted on 09/28/2004 5:34:19 PM PDT by missyme
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1229803/posts
The thing that is causing a lot of consternation among the scientists is that they cannot seem to nail down the size. While the official releases put it around 400m, it could easily be as small as a couple hundred meters or as large as a kilometer in diameter (now that would be a country killer).
I'm getting a bunch of NEO scientist traffic on this. Pity there isn't an official thread for tracking this particular asteroid.
four more, and offline I go...
Big comet plunging toward our Sun
Spaceweather.com ^ | 4-16-04 | Orlando
Posted on 04/16/2004 1:17:04 PM PDT by Orlando
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1119037/posts
Comets To Put On Morning Sky Show
BBC ^ | 4-20-2004 | David Whitehouse
Posted on 04/20/2004 6:42:32 PM PDT by blam
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1121469/posts
Flashes, booms reported over Western Washington
Seatle Post Int ^ | 6/3/2004 | AP
Posted on 06/03/2004 5:38:41 AM PDT by Selene
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1146755/posts
Is Earth In Imminent Danger From Inbound Meteors?
Bush Country ^ | 05/02/04
Posted on 05/02/2004 10:11:06 AM PDT by justme346
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1128284/posts
[singing] "swing low, sweet chariot..."
"Pity there isn't an official thread for tracking this particular asteroid."
[sniff] what about this one? Welcome one and all to the unoffficial thread... ;')
1:20 is a mere 5 per cent risk. That's a lot higher (obviously) than the risk of death from flying on a plane, or driving a car, or falling off a stepladder... :'o
not my fault.
Let us all know if there are any official or unofficial updates. The NASA site is holding steady at 1:43 odds.
Tradesports should establish a market in this.
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