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To: tortoise

They were 1:300 just yesterday.


104 posted on 12/25/2004 11:10:18 AM PST by txhurl
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To: txflake
They were 1:300 just yesterday.

Yep. Then they were 1:64. Now they are 1:43.

Those odds are based on the margin of error on the orbital path, the center-line plus or minus a certain amount in two dimensions. The cross-section of the probable path is getting smaller as our measurements are becoming more precise, and the earth is still inside that path cross-section and a larger target as a percentage of that cross-section.

JPL and NASA have been given priority time on our deep-space sensor nets (including US Space Command assets if I am not mistaken) to develop a very precise orbital model of this rock. With this much effort being put into the measurement, eventually the orbital path cross-section will be smaller than the diameter of the Earth and we can say with a high degree of certainty whether or not it will hit the planet and roughly where if it does. We'll have a second chance to make fine-tuning corrections in 2013. Interesting stuff.

I would point out that based on the orbit of this rock, that it will be a regular recurring threat.

105 posted on 12/25/2004 2:49:39 PM PST by tortoise (All these moments lost in time, like tears in the rain.)
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