Posted on 12/02/2004 9:50:21 AM PST by MikeEdwards
As entertainment, I have always particularly enjoyed any television show or movie about space voyage. There’s something compelling about a group of people, dependent on a space ship to carry them to or from danger. It is, as any Star Trek fan will tell you, "the final frontier." It is also largely absurd. Particularly when it involves billions of dollars this nation can ill afford to throw at a space program that robots could perform better than people.
Recently, I read an article by William Tucker, The Sober Realities of Manned Space Flight, that was published in the December 2004 edition of The American Enterprise magazine. Tucker began by noting that President Bush’s suggestion of a 280 million-mile manned space flight to Mars was a good idea. It is, in fact, an astonishingly bad idea, but even Presidents have a right to have bad ideas. "A quick NASA calculation," noted Tucker, "revealed that the Mars effort would cost nearly $500 billion over 30 years." Now take that figure and double it. Any estimate like that which is provided by a government agency--any agency--is usually wrong by a factor of two, three or higher.
I was quickly reminded of the spectacular and tragic failures of two Space Shuttles, one when it was launched and the second when it was returning to Earth. "The Space Shuttle was originally supposed to break even and fly every two weeks," said Greg Klerkx, the author of Lost in Space, a critique of NASA. Instead, "it ended up costing $500 million per launch, and flying four or five times a year." You should think of the Space Shuttle as a very expensive truck used to ferry cargo to the International Space Station. . . . .
(Excerpt) Read more at canadafreepress.com ...
If the author wants to talk about a waste of billions of ill-affordable dollars, let's start with the Canadian gun registry.
Robert Zubrin also said that a simple, bare-bones manned trip to Mars might cost as little as 30 Billion. Double that for 60.
Choose your expert.
...but people kind of miss the point of such an venture. It is not so much the actual flight itself, but the technology invented and created that affects our everyday lives (i.e. creation of the microwave, Tephlon, et cetera).
Science needs a kick in the butt to excel, whether it is War or a deadline mandated by the government. Loose government grants at universities and laboratories only produce the need for more time and government grants.
Careful - there are a whole bunch of NASA freaks here who will spend any amount of money in an attempt to gain some sort of national pride out of useless space flights.
A rat done bit my sister Nell
There in lies the problem. Ask Dick Rutan what he thinks it would cost.
bump
Manned spaceflight will continue to advance to the extent that the old NASA mindset relaxes it's stifling grip on it and lets free enterprise do what it does best.
Then the "impossible" becomes plausible.
MARS: the 51st state
"The Moon? Mars? Forget About It! "
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1292352/posts
Perhaps it's just me, but I'm not sure this guy has the best perspective from which to view the future.
I'll admit that the prospects of Star Trekkian starship voyages seem pretty remote any time within the millennium, but any time someone says, "It costs too much money and it's so unsafe and it has problems we haven't yet solved and therefore never can, and besides, stupid President Bush likes the idea," I want to roll up my sleeves and say, "Well, let's get to work building the sucker."
Using the $1 trillion over the course of 30 years number, that works out to be around $33 billion a year.
That is admittedly a lot of money. However, if we take an objective look at what it would be spent on, it seems that a case could be made that it would be much better spent here than in other places (yes, yes, I know, it is better that government not spend the money at all... but I'm just saying this for the sake of argument).
Sometimes the value of what we do should be judged by the side benefits. Space exploration has enormous side benefits. The research and development that would result from such a program could have enormous benefits for society as a whole. In addition, since human space exploration is a massive effort, it could be argued that such could have a positive impact on the economy as well. From the standpoint of America as a society, landing on the Mars would have an effect similar to that of landing on the moon - it's not something one sees every day, which has a tendency to unite people.
I am not sure whether the plan for human space exploration is feasible, but there certainly seems to be much that could be desireable in such an endeavor.
OH NO, we shouldn't do that! Someone could get KILLED!!!
Geez, what a whimp.
And it'll be a RED state. ><
That "NASA calaculation" was for a totally different program and done 15 years ago. It has subsequently been inflated by the hostile and the ignorant. For an excellent dissection and rebuttal of this cost canard, see Whispers in an echo chamber.
mike,
I agree. And so does CP Cavafy:
ITHACA (not to be confused with the city of evil)
C.P. Cavafy
translated from modern Greek by Rae Dalven
When you start on your journey to Ithaca,
then pray that the road is long,
full of adventure, full of knowledge.
Do not fear the Lestrygonians
and the Cyclopes and the angry Poseidon.
You will never meet such as these on your path,
if your thoughts remain lofty, if a fine
emotion touches your body and your spirit.
You will never meet the Lestrygonians,
the Cyclopes and the fierce Poseidon,
if you do not carry them within your soul,
if your soul does not raise them up before you.
Then pray that the road is long.
That the summer mornings are many,
that you will enter ports seen for the first time
with such pleasure, with such joy!
Stop at Phoenician markets,
and purchase fine merchandise,
mother-of-pearl and corals, amber and ebony,
and pleasurable perfumes of all kinds,
buy as many pleasurable perfumes as you can;
visit hosts of Egyptian cities,
to learn and learn from those who have knowledge.
Always keep Ithaca fixed in your mind.
To arrive there is your ultimate goal.
But do not hurry the voyage at all.
It is better to let it last for long years;
and even to anchor at the isle when you are old,
rich with all that you have gained on the way,
not expecting that Ithaca will offer you riches.
Ithaca has given you the beautiful voyage.
Without her you would never have taken the road.
But she has nothing more to give you.
And if you find her poor, Ithaca has not defrauded you.
With the great wisdom you have gained, with so much experience,
you must surely have understood by then what Ithacas mean.
The two don't necessarily have to be linked. Private enterprise is capable of this and more with investors WILLINGLY contributing capital.
Burt Rutan has begun that process with the White Knight. Assuming government doesn't stick its regulatory nose into things, economical space travel could very soon become a reality.
It is not a question of whether we should send robots or men to explore this place or that. In perspective, it's not even a question of expense. It is the inherent desire of man to explore, to reach out. We seek that as much as we seek freedom. Exploration of the unknown is a subset of that freedom and cannot be extinguished. It is a vital part of who we, man, are.
Agreed, There are other aspects, too.
Ponder the implications of a Chinese manned Martian landing in 6-10 years -- before us. People too quickly forget the benefits of exploration, not to mention the benefit to the country in ways not always measurable.
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