Posted on 11/21/2004 11:45:29 AM PST by TapTheSource
China Rapidly Modernizes for War With U.S.
Alexandr Nemets Tuesday, Aug. 10, 2004
During the last several months, there have been numerous hints in the Chinese and Taiwanese media indicating that war is more likely than believed here in the West.
Some strategists suggest that the 2008 Olympics scheduled for Beijing constitute a key benchmark, after which a war may be possible. However, it is clear that both nations are preparing for a conflict in the near term, and that 2008 may not be as pivotal as some experts believe.
In fact, China’s media have been repeating the mantra in their news reports that the People’s Liberation Army is preparing to gain a victory in this “internal military conflict in a high-tech environment.”
Chinese war planners have studied carefully the recent U.S.-Iraq War, a war that demonstrated to PLA strategists that U.S. military might is derived from its technological superiority.
China’s military experts conducted similar studies after America’s first Gulf War. One military study written by two Chinese colonels entitled “Unrestricted Warfare” suggested that China could not compete with America’s technological prowess.
Instead, China had to develop “asymmetrical” warfare to defeat the U.S. in any conflict.
Interestingly, “Unrestricted Warfare” became an instant best seller in China after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. In the 1998 book, the Chinese colonels suggested that a successful bombing by Osama bin Laden of the World Trade Center would be an example of this new “unrestricted warfare” concept.
Apparently, China feels much better positioned after the recent Iraq War and wants to challenge the U.S. on a technological level.
Almost instantly after the Iraq War, in May 2003, China’s President and Communist Party General Secretary Hu Jintao declared at the party’s Politburo meeting the necessity of “active support of national defense and modernization of the army.”
Hu emphasized the need for further integrating information technology (IT) into the PLA and mobilizing China’s entire scientific and technological potential for PLA’s needs.
As a result, the PLA’s modernization in these areas has accelerated significantly.
Since the second half of 2003, the PLA has been engaged in the latest stage of its RMA – Revolution in Military Affairs – program, which was officially announced by the chairman of China Central Military Commission, Jiang Zemin, in his speech on Sept. 1, 2003.
He emphasized that that PLA should transform itself into a “smaller and much smarter science- and technology-based army.”
Jiang defined the major tasks of new PLA reform as follows:
Reducing PLA’s ranks, primarily ground forces, by 200,000.
Maximizing IT and other advanced technologies – including nanotechnologies, space technologies, electromagnetic weapons, etc.
Improving the educational and qualitative training of PLA servicemen.
Transforming the PLA into an “army of one” that is comparatively smaller and of very high quality, similar to the U.S. Army.
Acquiring the most advanced weaponry.
The Russia Connection
During 2003 and 2004, Russia – jointly with Belarus and Ukraine – has been a major source of advanced weapons for the PLA.
According to official figures from Russia’s weapons export state monopoly, Rosoboronexport, Russia’s total weapons export in 2003 approached $5.7 billion, making Russia the second largest arms exporter after the U.S. (Please note that China is arguably the leading arms exporter in quantity of arms transported, as its weaponry is considerably less expensive than that of the U.S.)
China has purchased 38 percent of Russian arms exports, or around $2.2 billion.
If one takes into account the weapons deliveries from Belarus and Ukraine to China, along with “double use” nuclear and space technologies supplied by Russia to China, then Chinese real arms imports from greater Russia would, in my estimation, be $4 billion.
Clearly, Russia and her allies have been a huge factor supporting the PLA in its rapid modernization and planned confrontation with the U.S.
3-Pronged Strategy
The PLA has been following its “three-way policy” of advanced weapons acquisition.
This three-pronged strategy calls for China to gain technologically advanced weaponry through (1) imports, (2) joint (Chinese-foreign) weapons R&D, and (3) independent weapons R&D within China.
The details of this mechanism were given in the article “China’s military affairs in 2003,” published by the Taiwanese journal Zhonggong yanjiu (China Communism Research) in February 2004.
According to Taiwanese experts, though weapons import and joint R&D still play the major role in PLA modernization, the role of “independent R&D” has been increasing gradually.
Appointed in March 2003, new Chinese Defense Minister (former chief of Defense Ministry’s Armament Division) Col.-Gen. Cao Gangchuan was personally in charge of this work.
He has tried to decrease China’s dependence on Russian arms and increase the share of advanced weapons imports from Germany, France and Israel.
China also is engaged in joint weapons R&D projects with EU and NATO countries, including R&D of mid-range air-to-air missiles and highly precise satellite positioning (Galileo project).
The Air Force
China believes that in a conflict with Taiwan, air dominance will be key to a quick victory.
The PLA has been beefing up its PLA Air Force (PLAAF) and aircraft troops of the PLA Navy (PLAN).
Reportedly, by the end of February 2004, the PLAAF purchased from Russia 76 SU-30 MKK fighters belonging to the advanced “4 plus” generation.
PLAN air troops obtained 24 even more advanced SU-30 MKK fighters.
There is no data regarding future deliveries of the “finished” SU-30 from Russia to China; however, the Chinese aircraft industry is more or less capable now of producing the SU-30 as well as other fighters belonging to the fourth generation, or close to this level.
Dramatic modernization of China’s First Aviation Industry Corp., or AVIC-1, from 2001 to 2004, is of principal importance here (the data in this account are given in the above-mentioned article in the Zhonggong yanjiu journal).
Four major companies are developing China’s jet-manufacturing capability. Interestingly, each of these companies recently underwent radical modernization and upgrading, including advanced equipment obtained from Europe’s Airbus, claiming the help is for “cooperation in passenger aircraft production.”
Shenyang Aircraft Corp. continued, in the past year, to produce SU-27 SK (J-11) heavy fighters from Russian kits at a rate of at least 25 units annually, and the share of Chinese-made components surpassed 70 percent.
The same company now prepares SU-30 MKK (J-11A) fighters for manufacturing.
In the frame of “independent R&D” within China, the Chengdu Aircraft Corp. has mastered the serial production of medium J-10 fighters and FC-1 light fighters. These planes reportedly can match the U.S. F-16 fighter.
Here are some other developments in China’s air wing:
Guizhou Aircraft Corp. developed the advanced Shanying fighter-trainer, while Xian Aircraft Corp. mostly finished developing the new generation of FBC-1 (JH-7) long-range fighter-bomber, which became known as JH-7A.
Other enterprises, belonging to AVIC-1, mastered production of KAB-500 guided bombs and several kinds of air-to-air and air-to ground missiles.
By the end of 2003, the new generation of Flying Leopard, i.e., JH-7A, was being tested. This fighter-bomber’s weapons include new air-to-air and air-to-ground missiles of beyond-vision range, guided bombs, etc. This aircraft is adapted for anti-radar reconnaissance, effective low-altitude strikes against large naval vessels, and general strikes of ground-based and naval targets.
By the end of 2004, as a result of supply from Russia and increased fighter production at AVIC-1 subsidiaries, the number of advanced fighters of various kinds in PLAN air troops and the PLAAF – including SU-27 (J-11), SU-30 (J-11A), J-10, FC-1, Shanying, FBC-1 (JH-7) and JH-7A – could surpass an estimated 400 units. The Sea Component
China also sees its navy as critical in any successful assault on Taiwan.
The PLA Navy (PLAN) has numerous Chinese-Russian projects under way this year and next, including:
Purchase of two Russian Sovremenny destroyers, equipped with improved ship-to-ship supersonic cruise missiles (SSM) Sunburn 3M80MBE of 240 km range. Initially, Sunburn had a range of 160 km. However, in 2001-2003, Raduga Design Bureau in Dubna (about 150 km north of Moscow) designed, under PLAN’s orders, a much more lethal version of SSM.
Very probably, serial production of new SSM would be mastered in China, so it would be installed on two Sovremenny destroyers, purchased by PLAN in 1999-2000, on Chinese-built Luhu- and Luhai-class destroyers as well as Jiangwei-class frigates. According to media reports in the Hong Kong and Taiwan media, two new Sovremenny destroyers could be transferred to PLAN before the end of 2005.
Purchase of eight Kilo submarines, equipped by “super-advanced” 3M54E (CLUB-S) submarine-launched anti-ship missiles. In 2003, China already obtained 50 missiles of this kind, which would greatly improve PLAN’s striking capacity. China intends to organize production of these missiles. They probably also could be used on Chinese-built conventional submarines of the Song class.
New Kilo submarines could enter PLAN service in 2005 or the first half of 2006. (Information regarding destroyers and conventional submarines was repeated in several articles in Zhonggong yanjiu in January 2003 through February 2004 and in multiple media reports from Hong Kong during the same period.)
Construction of “093 project” nuclear attack submarines and the “094 project” strategic nuclear submarine, using Russian plans and technology, at Huludao (a port city in northeast Liaoning province) military shipbuilding plant. By the end of 2005, PLAN would have in its service at least two “093 project” and at least one “094 project” nuclear submarines. Reportedly, Russia had to make significant improvements in design and weapons of these submarines, in accordance with Chinese customers’ requirements.
Along with Russian contracts is the construction of a new generation of destroyers, frigates and conventional submarines at modernized shipbuilding plants in Dalian, Shanghai, Qingdao and Wuhan cities. An upgraded PLA could be capable pf establishing sea control around Taiwan in 2008.
Aso important is the fact that both the PLAAF and PLAN would be equipped, by 2008, with perfect military information technology systems, more precisely by C4ISR (command, control, computers, communication, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) systems, which would make the use of the listed weapon systems much more effective.
And given the reliability and accuracy of ballistic missiles, you don't do sufficient damage to the target areas unless you're using nukes.
Congratulations, you've just wasted a bunch of money to accomplish nothing except pissing off the Taiwanese and alerting them to the impending invasion.
Ok... so Taiwan is alerted. What is Taiwan's response?
They're still independent, and their troops go to maximum alert. China has just managed to look like both maniacally crazy and completely ineffective.
Hiding troops on flights can be done. You ground the current plane and send a transport plane in its place. Coordinate the flight dispatcher and set the transponder to match the expected squack code.
Problem is, you have to send far more flights across the Strait at one time than actually cross the Strait in reality. One planeload of troops doesn't accomplish anything except (a) alert the defenders that you're up to no good and (b) get those troops killed without accomplishing anything, because when the plane gets within sight of the airfield, it will be ID'd as hostile and shot down. (Troop transports do not look like airliners.)
Ok, you say beach landings are out of the question? How exactly?
Because China doesn't have enough combat sealift to do beach landings under fire.
China probably doesn't have enough LSTs or pure military vessels to do a amphibious assault. But they do have a bunch of container ships. You can fit alot of equipment on those. I wouldn't be surprise if the Chinese figured out how to put Russian IADS on ships.
Container ships? To unload a container ship, you need an intact port. The Taiwanese port facilities are prewired for destruction.
The big question on the ship landings
1. Can you do it without satellite detection?
No.
2. How fast can you off-load on the beach?
Not fast enough. Container ships can't unload on a beach; they need a container port.
3. How fast can you get out of the staging area?
Not fast enough. They'll be dead on the ship.
4. US subs? (will they act at all)
Taiwan has submarines.
And one has to assume that the US will act; we are the United States, not France.
5. US carrier battle groups in the area? (again if they act at all)
Almost irrelevant, given the other massive problems with the concept. But if a US carrier group is in the area, it's the whipped cream and maraschino cherry on the ChiCom bad-karma hot fudge sundae.
6. Will the Taiwanese air force survive the missile barage to assist in repelling the naval landing?
Yes, unless the ChiComs use nukes. And if the ChiComs are willing to use nukes against Taiwan, Russia will be likely to incinerate Beijing to prevent the ChiComs from getting any ideas about doing the same to capture Siberia.
Reprinted from NewsMax.com
War With China
Charles R. Smith
Friday, Nov. 21, 2003
Battleground America
China has declared a global war. China has openly named its foes, warning them to come into line or face terrible retribution.
China's recent threat against Taiwan is only one of many opponents that China is prepared to destroy. China openly warned Taiwan that the red state will re-unite with its long-lost brothers and sisters even if the People's Liberation Army has to kill everyone on the island.
"If the Taiwan authorities collude with all splittist forces to openly engage in pro-independence activities and challenge the mainland and the one-China principle, the use of force may become unavoidable," said Wang Zaixi, Chinese vice minister of the Taiwan Affairs Office.
According to Wang, Taiwan will "pay a high cost if they think we will not use force."
The openly belligerent warning is not expected to help global peace. Chinese efforts to shut down Taiwan include threatening to veto the U.N. peacekeeping force for Liberia unless the Liberian government ejects Taiwanese diplomats. Liberia and the U.N. caved in to Beijing's threats.
The actual threat of force is aimed not just at Taiwan but also at its two largest supporters, Japan and the United States. Yet Beijing's growing war machine will not encourage a policy change in Tokyo or Washington except toward more defense spending.
The last similar threat was made by the second in command of the PLA itself. Gen. Xiong Guangkai told Western reporters that China was prepared to vaporize Los Angeles if the U.S. backed Taiwan.
The most recent threat by Beijing will serve one purpose: It is certain to drive Taiwan's nationhood campaign and its nuclear weapons program into high gear.
China at War With Itself
The fact remains that China is at war with itself. The democracy in Taiwan represents but one of many threats against the brutal communist regime in Beijing. The Chinese Communist party, unable to tolerate any freedom, is at war against its own people, jailing millions of political dissenters in the Lao Gai prison camps.
For example, Chinese cyber-dissident Luo Yongzhong was recently given a harsh jail sentence for subversion. Luo's crime was to post articles on the Internet "attacking the socialist system." Luo published more than 150 articles on current events, including some direct criticism of the Communist government. Lou was given three years in jail for his efforts.
The war against the Chinese people waged by the Communist Party is most evident in its campaign against the Falun Gong. Since 1999, when the party outlawed the spiritual practice, over 100,000 Falun Gong members have been sent to Lao Gai camps.
More than 500 Falun Gong members have been sentenced to prison terms of up to 18 years. Over 1,000 have been forced into mental hospitals, an act condemned by the World Psychiatric Association.
At least 800 Falun Gong members have died while in police custody. Torture and brutal treatment are the norm. Chinese government sources inside China calculate that the actual number of Falun Gong members killed by the police exceeds 1,600.
The Wall Street Journal's Ian Johnson won a Pulitzer Prize with his stories documenting Chinese government abuses, including the case of Chen Zixiu, a 58-year-old woman who was beaten and tortured to death for refusing to renounce Falun Gong.
China at War in America
The war against the Falun Gong does not end at the Chinese border. For those of you who feel safe in America, be warned: The Chinese Communist Party is at work here inside our nation.
Our Constitution is the founding principle and the core of our freedom, including the freedom of speech and freedom of religion. However, Chinese intelligence, military and political officials have already engaged in documented efforts to deny U.S. citizens their rights here inside America.
One case involves Randy Voepel, the mayor of Santee, Calif.
"I received a very strong, very intimidating letter from the Consulate of the Communist Chinese," stated Mayor Voepel during a 2002 interview.
"Dear Mayor, the purpose that I am writing to you today is to discuss with you a matter which is of great importance and grave concern to the Chinese Government and its relations with the United States," stated the letter to Mayor Voepel.
"It is our hope that your City, by proceeding from the overall friendly relations between China and United States and by taking your citizen's interests into consideration, will earnestly consider the request from the Chinese side that no recognition and support in any form should be given to the Falun Gong cult organization, including designating a 'day' or a 'week' to Falun Gong, Falun Dafa or its leader," continued the letter from the Chinese government.
"They came up with a list of things that they either didn't want us to do for the Falun Gong, or things that they wanted us to do to the Falun Gong," stated Mayor Voepel flatly.
'Chilled Me to My Bones'
"I must tell you I have no connection at all to the Falun Gong. From a mayor's viewpoint, these people are a little exercise group, and I was very surprised a national government of the stature of the Chinese People's Republic would go to the length of contacting all the mayors in California. It was just very unsettling to me. It chilled me to my bones."
Mayor Voepel is not the only U.S. official to get a harsh letter, filled with threats, from the Chinese government. New Jersey Congressman Donald Payne was asked by Chinese Embassy officials to withdraw the Falun Gong notice in the Congressional Record.
The mayors of Saratoga and Alhambra, Calif., Seattle, Baltimore and St. Louis all have been asked directly by Chinese Consulate officials to rescind proclamations given in support of Falun Gong.
In February 2001, the Chinese Consulate General of Los Angeles asked Pasadena city officials to make the Pasadena Civic Auditorium off-limits to Falun Gong practitioners.
According to the general manager, Rick Barr: "A day after they called the Pasadena Civic Auditorium, the Consulate dropped off anti-Falun Gong pamphlets. ... What I told them was [Falun Gong] has signed a contract for the auditorium and we do not discriminate based on beliefs."
While many local officials have rebuffed the communist pressure, some have given in without a fight, including the mayors of San Francisco, Seattle, Baltimore and Los Angeles – all of whom in 1999 rescinded proclamations they had issued for the Falun Gong.
China's war against the Falun Gong on U.S. soil not only runs counter to American principles, it is also illegal. The activities of the Chinese government constitute a crime against our homeland, our cherished Constitution and our sovereignty.
The Chinese war against the tiny democracy Taiwan, the Falun Gong, Tibetan monks and cyber-dissidents has begun. The war is one of tyranny against freedom. It has spilled over the vast Pacific Ocean and landed right here in Main Street, USA.
104-104
Its a shame the US was opposed to Taiwan's nuclear program (THANKS CARTER) and look where we are today. The US under Ronald Reagan did have nuclear missiles stationed in Taiwan, mostly 9 megaton versions of the Pershing but those were removed when Ronald Reagan was out of office. A nuclear-armed Taiwan means a peaceful asia. With both China and Korea having nuclear arms, Taiwan must arm itself witn nuclear weapons, even if it does come at the cost of US support (as the US "officially" threatens).
Of course Taiwan probebly already has the bomb. More on that here.
If you haven't see it already, you might also want to check out post #13. We need to wake the conservative movement up on the real danger posed by Communist China/Eurasian Alliance.
I know. The EU is trying hard to lift the arms embargo and create a "counterweight" to the US.
I do the best I can to avoid Chinese-made stuff. It is impossible to completely avoid it BUT we can buy more stuff made in the US and Taiwan.
America has always overcome its opponents. We will prevail even in the face of this. If not we will just take our enemies down with us.
"[As for the United States]->..... for a relatively long time it will be absolutely necessary that we quietly nurse our sense of vengeance .. We must conceal our abilities and bide our time." .....-Chinese(PRC) Lt. General Mi Zhenyu
The PRC is likely to be completely helpless at ASW warfare, and, thus, incapable of projecting power anywhere overseas.
I laugh when I heard "PRC Navy" or "PLAN" because their navy is a joke. Their submarines are laughable at best. Even with the newer russian fighters, the PAAF simply does not have the training of the USAF.
Taiwan's pilots on the other hand are regular winners at Red Flag and often get rave reviews from the American pilots that train with them. A Navy and AF confict would be nothing more than a turkey shoot for Taiwan.
Maybe a new 'NATO' type alliance...Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Thailand, Vietnam, Japan, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand or si there something in place that could be reasserted or expanded? SEATO?
Taiwan already propsed such an alliance.
They have little or no logistics capability to project their current force anywhere beyond bordering nations. They have to upgrade just to be able to demonstrate any ability to project force and be considered a regional or global threat. I know alot has changed in the last 25 years but I was in the Far East when China invaded Vietnam in 79' and they got their buts kicked by a country ravaged by 3 decades of war. The real danger I feel is their ability to develop a low cost manufacturing industry that will put at risk our own industries.
I disagree. Taiwan is a key ally, fellow democracy (if a young democracy) and worth protecting at all costs. China will not stop at Taiwan. They took Tibet and we fell back. They took Xiangjiang and we did nothing. They assisted North Korea and we kicked their @sses back to the 38th parelell but never completed the job. The ChiComs are expanding into Latin America and forging alliances with our newest enemy, western Europe and Iran. By supporting Iran the Chinese also support terrorism. The line must be drawn!
Worthless unless you can actually feed them (China is rife with food and water shortages) and move them (you would need literal millions of aircraft and that would be a turkey shoot) and nothing more than lots and lots of target practice for area-effect weapons like cluster bombs, MOABs, and nukes.
I would rather see a full nuclear exchange than see the US surrender. I hope to g-d the leftists don't cause this country to fold like sPain. Those who would trade freedom for security do not deserve freedom. As the old saying goes, give me liberty or give me death.
Then we must deny them that false sense of security by b*tchslapping them and owning politically and militarily no matter what. Bush has now realized that Putin is nothing more than a KGB thug and is starting to realize that Hu is nothing more than a ChiCom thug: US troops are going back to Taiwan for the first time in 25 years and the US and Japan will establish an airbase very close to Taiwan.
China is also staging a strategic alliance with Brazil, working on a nuclear program. Lula is absolutly hostile to the US. Its a shame that few people know about it and that the lefists in our government are making sure the US is not stopping it.
As insane as it may sound, it should be the US sending container ships loaded with explosives to Chinese ports, supporting proxy-wars against China (Russia and India would come in handy for this), backing insurgencies, etc.
With 1.3 billion people they could wipe us out to the last woman, man and child and have PLENTY of room to colonize.
Africa is another option for them. 50 years and it will be colonized again.
Do you have ANY idea how big the Pacific Ocean is ? It's HALF the planet. A couple of nuclear reactors wouldn't even make it burp.
Typical french "quality" he he he. Still I think that is why the US is so interesdted in the new RAM (Rolling Air Frame) missile to help in anti-ship missile defense."
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