Posted on 11/21/2004 11:45:29 AM PST by TapTheSource
China Rapidly Modernizes for War With U.S.
Alexandr Nemets Tuesday, Aug. 10, 2004
During the last several months, there have been numerous hints in the Chinese and Taiwanese media indicating that war is more likely than believed here in the West.
Some strategists suggest that the 2008 Olympics scheduled for Beijing constitute a key benchmark, after which a war may be possible. However, it is clear that both nations are preparing for a conflict in the near term, and that 2008 may not be as pivotal as some experts believe.
In fact, China’s media have been repeating the mantra in their news reports that the People’s Liberation Army is preparing to gain a victory in this “internal military conflict in a high-tech environment.”
Chinese war planners have studied carefully the recent U.S.-Iraq War, a war that demonstrated to PLA strategists that U.S. military might is derived from its technological superiority.
China’s military experts conducted similar studies after America’s first Gulf War. One military study written by two Chinese colonels entitled “Unrestricted Warfare” suggested that China could not compete with America’s technological prowess.
Instead, China had to develop “asymmetrical” warfare to defeat the U.S. in any conflict.
Interestingly, “Unrestricted Warfare” became an instant best seller in China after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. In the 1998 book, the Chinese colonels suggested that a successful bombing by Osama bin Laden of the World Trade Center would be an example of this new “unrestricted warfare” concept.
Apparently, China feels much better positioned after the recent Iraq War and wants to challenge the U.S. on a technological level.
Almost instantly after the Iraq War, in May 2003, China’s President and Communist Party General Secretary Hu Jintao declared at the party’s Politburo meeting the necessity of “active support of national defense and modernization of the army.”
Hu emphasized the need for further integrating information technology (IT) into the PLA and mobilizing China’s entire scientific and technological potential for PLA’s needs.
As a result, the PLA’s modernization in these areas has accelerated significantly.
Since the second half of 2003, the PLA has been engaged in the latest stage of its RMA – Revolution in Military Affairs – program, which was officially announced by the chairman of China Central Military Commission, Jiang Zemin, in his speech on Sept. 1, 2003.
He emphasized that that PLA should transform itself into a “smaller and much smarter science- and technology-based army.”
Jiang defined the major tasks of new PLA reform as follows:
Reducing PLA’s ranks, primarily ground forces, by 200,000.
Maximizing IT and other advanced technologies – including nanotechnologies, space technologies, electromagnetic weapons, etc.
Improving the educational and qualitative training of PLA servicemen.
Transforming the PLA into an “army of one” that is comparatively smaller and of very high quality, similar to the U.S. Army.
Acquiring the most advanced weaponry.
The Russia Connection
During 2003 and 2004, Russia – jointly with Belarus and Ukraine – has been a major source of advanced weapons for the PLA.
According to official figures from Russia’s weapons export state monopoly, Rosoboronexport, Russia’s total weapons export in 2003 approached $5.7 billion, making Russia the second largest arms exporter after the U.S. (Please note that China is arguably the leading arms exporter in quantity of arms transported, as its weaponry is considerably less expensive than that of the U.S.)
China has purchased 38 percent of Russian arms exports, or around $2.2 billion.
If one takes into account the weapons deliveries from Belarus and Ukraine to China, along with “double use” nuclear and space technologies supplied by Russia to China, then Chinese real arms imports from greater Russia would, in my estimation, be $4 billion.
Clearly, Russia and her allies have been a huge factor supporting the PLA in its rapid modernization and planned confrontation with the U.S.
3-Pronged Strategy
The PLA has been following its “three-way policy” of advanced weapons acquisition.
This three-pronged strategy calls for China to gain technologically advanced weaponry through (1) imports, (2) joint (Chinese-foreign) weapons R&D, and (3) independent weapons R&D within China.
The details of this mechanism were given in the article “China’s military affairs in 2003,” published by the Taiwanese journal Zhonggong yanjiu (China Communism Research) in February 2004.
According to Taiwanese experts, though weapons import and joint R&D still play the major role in PLA modernization, the role of “independent R&D” has been increasing gradually.
Appointed in March 2003, new Chinese Defense Minister (former chief of Defense Ministry’s Armament Division) Col.-Gen. Cao Gangchuan was personally in charge of this work.
He has tried to decrease China’s dependence on Russian arms and increase the share of advanced weapons imports from Germany, France and Israel.
China also is engaged in joint weapons R&D projects with EU and NATO countries, including R&D of mid-range air-to-air missiles and highly precise satellite positioning (Galileo project).
The Air Force
China believes that in a conflict with Taiwan, air dominance will be key to a quick victory.
The PLA has been beefing up its PLA Air Force (PLAAF) and aircraft troops of the PLA Navy (PLAN).
Reportedly, by the end of February 2004, the PLAAF purchased from Russia 76 SU-30 MKK fighters belonging to the advanced “4 plus” generation.
PLAN air troops obtained 24 even more advanced SU-30 MKK fighters.
There is no data regarding future deliveries of the “finished” SU-30 from Russia to China; however, the Chinese aircraft industry is more or less capable now of producing the SU-30 as well as other fighters belonging to the fourth generation, or close to this level.
Dramatic modernization of China’s First Aviation Industry Corp., or AVIC-1, from 2001 to 2004, is of principal importance here (the data in this account are given in the above-mentioned article in the Zhonggong yanjiu journal).
Four major companies are developing China’s jet-manufacturing capability. Interestingly, each of these companies recently underwent radical modernization and upgrading, including advanced equipment obtained from Europe’s Airbus, claiming the help is for “cooperation in passenger aircraft production.”
Shenyang Aircraft Corp. continued, in the past year, to produce SU-27 SK (J-11) heavy fighters from Russian kits at a rate of at least 25 units annually, and the share of Chinese-made components surpassed 70 percent.
The same company now prepares SU-30 MKK (J-11A) fighters for manufacturing.
In the frame of “independent R&D” within China, the Chengdu Aircraft Corp. has mastered the serial production of medium J-10 fighters and FC-1 light fighters. These planes reportedly can match the U.S. F-16 fighter.
Here are some other developments in China’s air wing:
Guizhou Aircraft Corp. developed the advanced Shanying fighter-trainer, while Xian Aircraft Corp. mostly finished developing the new generation of FBC-1 (JH-7) long-range fighter-bomber, which became known as JH-7A.
Other enterprises, belonging to AVIC-1, mastered production of KAB-500 guided bombs and several kinds of air-to-air and air-to ground missiles.
By the end of 2003, the new generation of Flying Leopard, i.e., JH-7A, was being tested. This fighter-bomber’s weapons include new air-to-air and air-to-ground missiles of beyond-vision range, guided bombs, etc. This aircraft is adapted for anti-radar reconnaissance, effective low-altitude strikes against large naval vessels, and general strikes of ground-based and naval targets.
By the end of 2004, as a result of supply from Russia and increased fighter production at AVIC-1 subsidiaries, the number of advanced fighters of various kinds in PLAN air troops and the PLAAF – including SU-27 (J-11), SU-30 (J-11A), J-10, FC-1, Shanying, FBC-1 (JH-7) and JH-7A – could surpass an estimated 400 units. The Sea Component
China also sees its navy as critical in any successful assault on Taiwan.
The PLA Navy (PLAN) has numerous Chinese-Russian projects under way this year and next, including:
Purchase of two Russian Sovremenny destroyers, equipped with improved ship-to-ship supersonic cruise missiles (SSM) Sunburn 3M80MBE of 240 km range. Initially, Sunburn had a range of 160 km. However, in 2001-2003, Raduga Design Bureau in Dubna (about 150 km north of Moscow) designed, under PLAN’s orders, a much more lethal version of SSM.
Very probably, serial production of new SSM would be mastered in China, so it would be installed on two Sovremenny destroyers, purchased by PLAN in 1999-2000, on Chinese-built Luhu- and Luhai-class destroyers as well as Jiangwei-class frigates. According to media reports in the Hong Kong and Taiwan media, two new Sovremenny destroyers could be transferred to PLAN before the end of 2005.
Purchase of eight Kilo submarines, equipped by “super-advanced” 3M54E (CLUB-S) submarine-launched anti-ship missiles. In 2003, China already obtained 50 missiles of this kind, which would greatly improve PLAN’s striking capacity. China intends to organize production of these missiles. They probably also could be used on Chinese-built conventional submarines of the Song class.
New Kilo submarines could enter PLAN service in 2005 or the first half of 2006. (Information regarding destroyers and conventional submarines was repeated in several articles in Zhonggong yanjiu in January 2003 through February 2004 and in multiple media reports from Hong Kong during the same period.)
Construction of “093 project” nuclear attack submarines and the “094 project” strategic nuclear submarine, using Russian plans and technology, at Huludao (a port city in northeast Liaoning province) military shipbuilding plant. By the end of 2005, PLAN would have in its service at least two “093 project” and at least one “094 project” nuclear submarines. Reportedly, Russia had to make significant improvements in design and weapons of these submarines, in accordance with Chinese customers’ requirements.
Along with Russian contracts is the construction of a new generation of destroyers, frigates and conventional submarines at modernized shipbuilding plants in Dalian, Shanghai, Qingdao and Wuhan cities. An upgraded PLA could be capable pf establishing sea control around Taiwan in 2008.
Aso important is the fact that both the PLAAF and PLAN would be equipped, by 2008, with perfect military information technology systems, more precisely by C4ISR (command, control, computers, communication, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) systems, which would make the use of the listed weapon systems much more effective.
They're just a hop, skip, and a jump from San Diego.
The Chinese have had the capability since the early 1980s of putting several fairly massive thermonuclear weapons into cities in the Western US on an ICBM.
However, that would bring massive retaliation that would end the PRC as a functioning society. So that's not going to happen, any more than we had a nuclear war with the Soviets during the Cold War.
Other than that, the answer really is "not much." Unless it's a Tom Clancy scenario where we aid the Russians agains the Chinese in Siberia, we're not going to be fighting a land war against them anywhere.
Despite the frantic hype the PRC Navy and Air Force simply aren't that great.
No ship is absolutely invulnerable, and yes, a Carrier is sinkable, but we've got plenty of those. And destroying one would likely end up with the PRC losing all of their naval and air power-projecting capability in the process.
The PRC is likely to be completely helpless at ASW warfare, and, thus, incapable of projecting power anywhere overseas.
The question is WHETHER they can seize Taiwan, and the answer is an obvious "no."
You assume wrong. There are no easy, glib answers to the mess we're in. Full scale awareness of the problem has to be acheived, and we're no where near that yet. Most people think Wal-Mart is great for America; there's no national outcry demanding alternatives, yet.
It will be highly illuminating to see which way Secretary RICE pushes!
China is doing what any other country would do under the same circumstances.
One would hope that they evolve in their tendencies to run interference against the U.S. for the sake of nationalism, but it is likely that they will not. They will continue to a pain when they can.
As to threats to U.S.security, I believe that is what our nuclear deterrent is for. China is more of a threat to financial security than anything else at this time.
Taiwan is not the trip wire that it once was. I do not see any international support for any confrontation, nor do I see much national support either.
It looks to me like unification is the goal and not just talk anymore. It will be years before that is remotely possible however.
Status quo for now.
The Taiwanese could stop them by themselves pretty well, without us lifting a finger, IMHO.
Response: Hell it will be here. It takes only about 5% of a population to foment severe internal disorder. Five 5% of 40 million Hispanic invaders equals about two million. Lenin overthrew Tsarist Russia with about 250,000. Does not look good.
You mean, the CHINA/EURASIAN/RUSSIAN Alliance.
The Japanese killed 30 million Chinese some 50 + years ago during the expansion of Japans 'Far East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere'. Chinese have a long history and a long memory. Perhaps we're now seeing China's 'Far East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere' taking shape. I hope they don't bomb Pearl Harbor before we figure out this bit of history repeating it's self in the Pacific. Korea has no love for Japan either. Maybe a new 'NATO' type alliance...Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Thailand, Vietnam, Japan, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand or si there something in place that could be reasserted or expanded? SEATO?
Yep self-promotion by Chinese wannabees and their supporters. Just the typical totalitarian - Chinese talking point/negotiating strategy.
China is a basket case politically and economically: floaating yuan sinks to the bottom of the tank, it's crap
You know - other nations have not spent time thinking - when their space has been violated - they have acted. I think perhaps Japan should take the same approach - When you are in the right - you're in the right -
I found it odd - that once China was not held to human rights violations - all the voices speaking out on the other actions by China(South China Sea) fell silent. Money buys a lot these days - but might the final price be paid by the U.S. - for prior actions - and failure to act on current matters - in a firm way - It never hurts to stand the ground for freedom -
Not to harp on the years belonging to Clinton (grin) but I do hope we have "changed" everything that was known to be - Considering what was given away in "public" by him and his foul people - one can only imagine what else was supplied to China, Russia, etc. - And considering McCain and others are pro China - it might not hurt to keep them far away from President Bush - especially since McCain is also in love with all the illegals and might be behind the soft approach being taken -
I also hope we have changed "all" people around our tech. - or at least put the controls back on - the ones that became nothing under that last admin. Beware of anyone having anything to do with those still calling themselves democrats - at the very least -
just my thoughts -
Well, I've stated repeatedly that China will collapse in a violent Civil War/episode of Warlordism long before they're an actual military superpower.
We'll find out over the next 40 years.
Speaking of interesting, you might also want to check out post #13. I am not worried about Red China alone, I am much more worried about the growing Eurasian Alliance which includes Red China, Russia, the EU, and a number of Middle Eastern countries to include Iran. Red China's entrance into Latin America isn't comforting either.
Right now, they don't even have the capability to get an invasion force across the Taiwan Strait. The most they could really do is trade bombs..
I don't think Taiwan is worth a drop of American blood. As far as I am concerned they (the Chinese) can have it.
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