Posted on 11/11/2004 3:43:19 PM PST by datura
| FOCUS ON TURKEY |
Turkey warns U.S. it plans to invade northern Iraq shortly after elections
ANKARA — Turkey's military has begun preparing for what officials warned could result in a major invasion of neighboring Iraq.
Officials said the Turkish General Staff has drafted plans for an invasion by at least 20,000 troops into northern Iraq in early 2005. They said the General Staff has urged approval from the government of Prime Minister Recep Erdogan and discussed the proposed invasion with the United States.
"The current phase is to show the United States that we're serious," a Turkish government source said. "After the Iraqi elections in January, the Turkish military will be ready to move."
The military has called for a massive operation in northern Iraq to prevent Kurdish militias from controlling the area. The General Staff has been particularly alarmed by the reported Kurdish effort to drive out ethnic Turks from Kirkuk, the oil capital of northern Iraq and long claimed by Ankara.
Under the Turkish plan, the military would deploy at least 20,000 Turkish troops in an enclave south of the Iraqi-Turkish border. The force would focus on eliminating the Kurdish Workers Party and ensure the return of Turkmens to Kirkuk.
About 3,000 PKK fighters are said to be based in northern Iraq and have been sending insurgents and weaponry for attacks inside neighboring Turkey.
The United States has refused numerous Turkish appeals to eliminate the PKK strongholds.
On Oct. 14 Erdogan and his cabinet reviewed the General Staff's plan. That meeting, attended by Chief of Staff Gen. Hilmi Ozkok and Defense Minister Vecdi Gonul, discussed the rapid deployment of up to 40,000 troops in northern Iraq.
A scaled-down version of the military plan was discussed in the national security council on Oct. 27. The officials said that over the last week some units have already been deployed along the Iraqi-Turkish border.
Officials said the General Staff has sought to prepare two army divisions to cross the Iraqi border within 18 hours of any approval of the operation.
The first goal of the ground operation, supported by fighter-jets and attack helicopters, would be to destroy PKK strongholds in the Kandil mountains in northern Iraq.
The General Staff has warned the cabinet that Ankara could no longer ignore the Kurdish threat. Officials said the military has determined that Kurds from Iran and Syria have bolstered support for the PKK.
Iranian and Syrian Kurds, they said, have participated in PKK attacks against police and military targets in southeastern Turkey over the last week.
Officials said the General Staff has sought to obtain U.S. approval for the operation in northern Iraq. But Washington has not provided implicit approval.
The Erdogan government has sought to delay any Turkish military operation until after the European Union summit on Dec. 17. The government intends to spare the EU any pretext to delay a date for accession.
Officials said the Peshmerga are digging tunnels and establishing outposts outside Dahouk, near the Turkish border.
Turkey has already gone to war with another NATO country in the past, namely Greece!
"I don't know. Who has a stronger and better military, Turkey or Europe?"
- Hmmmmm. You may be on to something here. Do you suppose the Iraq invasion is just a cover story for Turkey's real intention, which is to strike west. They could be in Vienna in two days and on the channel coast in five.
5.56mm
The oil fields in Kirkuk are worth a lot more than the three billion we provide Turkey a year.
The fact is the USA is on very shaky ground in the middle east. We have a small force on the ground with a huge area to occupy. Turkey has a vital interest in preventing the Kurds from establishing a state, since there are lots of Kurds in Turkey that would secede in a heart beat to join a Kurdistan. Also Turkey has been moving away from a secular state towards a populist Islamic state. Could be, Turkey thinks it could win, regain it lost Ottoman glory and become the Islamic super state. Stranger things have happened, could be UE (France, Germany) see an opportunity to knock the USA down a peg or too and gain influence with the new Islamic super state. All that needs to happen is too defeat the USA forces on the ground while preventing a general war. Should the UE get the UK on board (hard to imagine that) then our supply lines would just to too damn long.
I am just an arm chair general, but I can see the Turks and maybe some Euro's giving this scenario some serious consideration. (Might even have been the plan should Kerry have won). If the game should begin, the out come will depend on the US public's willingness to fight a general war in the middle east. A war that would mean a full mobilization and a draft. Turkey could very well be willing to take the risk. The reward is huge and the risk is 50/50.
I remember reading an article even before the invasion that Turkey will take advantage of a weak Iraq to reclaim land. Not sure if this is what they are talking about, but since they are asking our permission, it may be more than what we know.
Turkey is a muslim nation.
The Turks scapegoat America following (rightfully) Clinton's shafting them after GW1 according to Bush I's promises.
We all know that Turkey is a Muhammadan powder keg.
The EU is using Turkey like one of Saddam Hussein's b*tches...
The EU is not a military alliance. Nato is, Turkey is a member of NATO, France is not!
Might want to check out the following VERY INFORMATIVE NRO link:
http://nationalreview.com/rubin/rubin200408051220.asp
I didn't know we gave them three billion per year but that just makes it worse.
Could get real interesting, now that China and Iran are becoming good buddies.
Good Analysis, but you should discard, in my opinion, any role for Europe. This guys are not the heirs of the Templat Knights, napoleon, El cid, Bismarck... europe is no longer a warfighter.
Perhaps Mr. Erdogan should flip on over to Fox or CNN and watch the fun from Fallujah. You don't want to be on the receiving end when the US military is "spreadin' a little love".
We would have no other option but to fight. If we lose to a Muslim country like Turkey with Germany and France's prodding and planning. We are out of the game. It's a huge gamble, your right. But what would you be willing to risk to become the worlds only super power?
Turkey, IMO, should be considered a write-off...I'm convinced we will discover that the Turks were far more than a relief-valve for illegal Iraqi Oil for Cash bribes and the like, in total cahoots with the EU: betting on the downside of America's liberation of Iraq and hedging their entry into the EU in the balance.
With a backdrop of Muhammadan nationalism, Kurdish Communist terrorism and Kurdish nationalism in the Turkish Muhammadan mindset...
Should be interesting to see who is sleeping / will sleep with whom and how it turns out.
Small price to pay for Europe. They are socialist already and Muslims are over running Europe as we speak.
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