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Statement from John Zogby on 2004 Presidential Election Results (CYA spin)
Zogby ^ | 11/3/04 | John Zogby

Posted on 11/03/2004 9:25:29 AM PST by finnman69

Statement from John Zogby on 2004 Presidential Election Results:

“We feel strongly that our pre-election polls were accurate on virtually every state. Our predictions on many of the key battleground states like Ohio and Florida were within the margin of error. I thought we captured a trend, but apparently that result didn’t materialize.

“We always saw a close race, and a close race is what we’ve got. I’ve called this the Armageddon Election for some time—a closely-divided electorate with high partisan intensity on each side."

(more from Zogby coming soon…)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Zogby International Finds: Bush at 49.4%, Kerry at 49.1%

The telephone poll of 955 likely voters was conducted (November 1-2, 2004). The MOE is +/- 3.2


TOPICS: Front Page News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2004finalpolls; 2004poll; 2004polls; finalzogbypolls; polls; polls2004; zogby; zogby2004
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To: finnman69

Thanks for posting that citation. End result - Zogby missed - by a lot.


61 posted on 11/03/2004 9:48:03 AM PST by Fury
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To: LegalEagle61
In 4 years we will remember this and ignore him and others.

Sadly, most won't. Zogby pulls something like this every election (including releasing "final numbers" on the afternoon of Election Day) and yet half of Freepers consider him a reliable pollster.

62 posted on 11/03/2004 9:50:00 AM PST by Dont Mention the War (How important a Senator can you be if Dick Cheney's never told you to "go [bleep] yourself"?)
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To: over3Owithabrain
D'ya think??? :)
63 posted on 11/03/2004 9:58:47 AM PST by colorado tanker ("medals, ribbons, we threw away the symbols of what our country gave us and I'm proud of that")
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To: finnman69

Zogby...don't quit your day job.

Oops, I mean...um...sorry. Have a nice day.


64 posted on 11/03/2004 9:59:45 AM PST by NetSurfer (Funny thing about the election? IT'S THE MORALITY, STUPID.)
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To: finnman69

Zogby this morning: "JFK actually had the 311 electoral votes before he lost them."


65 posted on 11/03/2004 10:01:28 AM PST by Paraclete
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To: finnman69; RWR8189; Cableguy; swilhelm73



Actually, Gallup's FINAL poll was not that bad. It is ONLY their manual
TWEAKING that got them into trouble. They ALLOCATED 90% of the undecided
to Kerry, based on a very small history of past elections.

IF they had allocated them per Pat Caddell and others who contend that
in Presidential Elections, that Undecideds break 60/40 for the INCUMBENT
then Gallup would have been VERY VERY accurate!


Gallup's FINAL poll
Likely voters (unallocated)
49 Bush
47 Kerry
1 Nader
3 Undecided

Final Gallup estimate (with undecided vote allocated) [90% to Kerry]
49 Bush
49 Kerry
2 Nader
--


How Gallup SHOULD have allocated the undecideds - 60/40 to the INCUMBENT
51 Bush
48 Kerry
1 Nader
--


66 posted on 11/03/2004 10:04:53 AM PST by Future Useless Eater (FreedomLoving_Engineer)
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To: finnman69

So much for his "Special Sauce."


67 posted on 11/03/2004 10:05:38 AM PST by SmithL (Vietnam-era Vet: Still fighting Hillary's half-vast left-wing conspiracy)
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To: All

He calls this the "Armageddon Election?"

Maybe for Zogby this is Armageddon....I hope so!


68 posted on 11/03/2004 10:11:18 AM PST by austinaero
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To: finnman69

Bush Country


69 posted on 11/03/2004 10:12:38 AM PST by SuperSonic (Four More Years! For More Years!)
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To: finnman69

Quite a pattern of being wrong there. Overestimating Kerry's support across the board.


70 posted on 11/03/2004 10:13:35 AM PST by Chesterbelloc
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To: finnman69

“We always saw a close race, and a close race is what we’ve got."

Bush 51% 58,527,956
Kerry 48% 54,992,753 diff - 3,535,203
EV 286 - 252 diff - 34
and all the Senate pickups
it really was not so close, if it was reversed it would have been called at Midnight - w/ the chant of MANDATE in the air.


71 posted on 11/03/2004 10:17:54 AM PST by za_claws
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To: Dont Mention the War
....yet half of Freepers consider him a reliable pollster.**

**(according to the latest Zogby poll)

72 posted on 11/03/2004 10:18:42 AM PST by San Jacinto
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To: finnman69
Statement from John Zogby on 2004 Presidential Election Results:

"Hey... I'm a freaking tool, all right? What else did you really expect from me, for pete's sake...?" :)

73 posted on 11/03/2004 10:44:28 AM PST by KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle (I feel more and more like a revolted Charlton Heston, witnessing ape society for the very first time)
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To: finnman69

ZOGBY BEAT DOWN BUMP!


74 posted on 11/03/2004 11:36:04 AM PST by finnman69 (cum puella incedit minore medio corpore sub quo manifestus globus, inflammare animos)
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To: finnman69
We feel strongly that our pre-election polls were accurate on virtually every state.

Which begs the question: how can something so "accurate" be so completely and utterly WRONG?

Idiot.

75 posted on 11/03/2004 12:10:43 PM PST by Prime Choice (Laura Bush is like everyone's sweetheart. Teresa Heinz-Kerry is like everyone's mother-in-law.)
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To: finnman69; All

John Zogby-I was right before I was wrong in 2004


76 posted on 11/03/2004 12:42:13 PM PST by MNJohnnie (Vote Bush 2004-We cannot survive a 9-10 President in a 9-11 World)
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To: finnman69

Being within the margin of error in a few states is one thing, but being on the wrong side of the margin each time is another.


77 posted on 11/03/2004 12:49:02 PM PST by freakboy
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To: freakboy

Zogby went out fo his way to spin his data but I found the final day manipulation using exit polls to be utterly unethical and unprofessional.


78 posted on 11/03/2004 1:10:11 PM PST by finnman69 (cum puella incedit minore medio corpore sub quo manifestus globus, inflammare animos)
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To: finnman69

he's on the way to Arafats hospital bed


79 posted on 11/04/2004 9:20:58 AM PST by rang1995
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To: holdonnow
Great One - you were FANTASTIC on Cavuto...

Your bit yesterday, with the lib reading the talking points (Ok, go ahead, you're on now), where she re-read the same stinking talking points 4 times, was CLASSIC.

Keep up the great work, we appreciate all you do...

By the way, thanks for not letting Mr. Koch get away with his filibuster argument.

You're awesome.

80 posted on 11/04/2004 10:17:54 AM PST by NYC Republican
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