IYHO, WHAT WAS KERRY'S BIGGEST MISCALCULATION?

11/3/04

[Liz]

Clearly, the Kerry campaign machine paled next to the brilliant assault commanded by Bush and Karl Rove.

I would say the number one miscalculation was that the Kerry people severly underestimated the burning desire in the American electorate for the restoration of moral values.

It was significant---and redounded in Bush's favor---that ballot questions in 10-12 states to outlaw same sex marriages brought out committed Christians in droves.

These Christians came out to vote for traditional marriage and overwhelmingly drove the vote home for Bush.

Also significant was the Bush effect in Black churches ---normally Dim strongholds.

GWB's strong moral commitment resonated in those churches by strongly religious Black believers who wanted no truck with gay marriages. Our Black co-religionists had also been betrayed by Rev Jesse Jackson and his extra-marital fatherhood.

[Nataku X]

Here's what I posted at a lefty-ish message board.

Early this year, I was committed to voting third party due to Iraq, Medicare, amnesty, the drill. So were many other Republicans. For a while there--you could not discern the difference between FreeRepublic and Democratic Underground... we all hated Bush.

Slowly, but surely, the rumblings of the lunatic leftists started in late spring, and started in full force as Michael Moore's movie came out.

Gawd. You wonder why Bush won. I'll tell you why.

You leftists scared and angered the **** out of us, and it has nothing to do with Rove or whatever. You did that on all your own.

Here's what angered us. Being told over and over that as a country we're evil, stupid, fat, selfish, illiterate. Having Michael Moore, Al Franklen, and other foreign pundits rubbing it in our faces repeatedly that we're stupid, fat, and ignorant... and then expecting that we'd be moved to vote for them. The message from the Democrats was a clear "America should be more like Europe".

Let me tell you, as someone who grew up in the heart of the evangelical community, this did NOT play well with Christians at all. Sweden's jailing of that preacher got a whole lot of play in the evangelical media, as well as EU/Canada's hate speech laws. That's what caused the Christian/Catholic turnout.

Face reality... your candidates are unwinnable because they are out of the mainstream, and furthermore, they put Europe and Canada on a pedestal high over America. Bill Clinton was a right-of-center Democrat. Joe Lieberman was a right-of-center candidate, and would've routed yesterday. But, instead, you guys choose those nutting ravers, and you allowed Michael Moore to define yourself. It wasn't Karl Rove who defined you as nutjobs. It was Michael Moore.

I looked at what the left is concerned about. The Left says they want to fix Iraq, health care, etc... but never said how they want Iraq to end, or how they would provide health care without sacrificing quality, competition, and with a minimal tax payout. Instead, I see that the left was directing their energies to>:

- My Pet Goat.
- Bush's bulges and earpieces.
- http://www.environment2004.org/ Bush made hurricanes happen.
- http://www.georgethemenace.org/
- Halliburton.
- LIHOP.
- Forging memos for CBS.
- Going through every minutae of his National Guard service.
- Kitty Kelley... Bush is gay, had an abortion, etc.

You'll no doubt howl how wrong I am, but the election spoke for itself:

You guys were winning handily with Clinton and the "New Democrats" strategy.
You guys got trounced big for using Kerry, the most liberal senator in the Senate, with the backing of Michael Moore, etc.

Feel free to test out my theory by nominating Joe Lieberman in 2008. I'll be the first to campaign for him.

[Libertina]

Being himself.

[Wolfhound777]

His secret plan

[Ditter]

I agree with you. Running on his Viet Nam record brought the Swift Vets out and they killed him.

[Southack]

"Excellent post... By the way, thanks for your incredible optimism even throughout the most difficult times (i.e.- Bush's awful 1st debate). It was EXTREMELY helpful"

Thanks, and you are welcome. It was easy to be optimistic out here in the Heartland. Yes, Bush's presentation was awful in that first debate, but JFK's blunder was uttering "global test."

Now granted, in the hyper-urban North-East and on the West Coast, differences in style and presentation are often viewed as fatal...but out here in the Heartland we are pretty fogiving of people who stutter, stammer, pause, and misspeak...at least, we're forgiving if such honest mistakes come from someone who is honest, decent, and shares our values.

...And as I said all along, all that GWB had to do was re-win his old 2000 states again this year.

Senator Kerry was no threat to taking away those GWB-2000 states. He was and is a White, liberal, leftist, East Coast, elite attorney...hardly the sort of traits that receive widespread admiration in Fly-Over Country.

Moreover, the Democratic Party leadership was deliberately ignoring the advice being given to them by their few remaining Southern Senators such as Zell Miller and John Breaux...so there was little chance that they would adapt in time to stave off certain defeat.

That's been one of the most revealing "tells" of the current Democratic Party leadership. They've abandoned their old Scoop Jackson wing to such an extent that they give away their obvious disdain for all things not hip, trendy, and Euro-approved. In short, they refuse to listen to people from the Heartland because the current Democratic Party leadership considers them to be inferior.

Current election results, of course, reveal another story altogether...but still their snobbery persists.

[Edgewood Pilot]

The trial lawyer with the fancy hair.

[mad_as_he$$]

DOES NOT UNDERSTAND THE "COMMON" AMERICAN. Oh yea and Lambert field didn't help!

[des]

I think the moral values people voted on are LYING and TREASON. God bless John O'Neill.

[jackbill]

His major miscalculation was to think that he could turn a four month "tour" in Vietnam, several years of trashing out military and 30 years of sucking off of the government teat into a presidency.

One of my greatest thrills today is knowing that this POS has invested 30 years into gaining the presidency - AND HE LOST. It's over for him.

And, as Martha Stewart would say: "That's a good thing".

[Tuxedo]

After giving this a lot of thought, I came up with quite a few things:

1) Choice of Edwards: This did not give Kerry any help electorally. Gephardt was the smart move and would have delivered MO, held IA, and made inroads in OH.

2) Reliance on 527's: Bad idea. The ads were just so below the belt, especially by the Media Fund, that they riled up the Conservative base. Too many of their ads in OH led to fatigue.

3) Not coming clean on Vietnam: He should have apologized to the Vets and opened his record. It would have diffused the Swift Boat ads.

4) Not reining in Teresa: She reminds people of Hillary, and is divisive.

5) Running away from his Senate Record: Showing America that you are afraid of your voting record and being dimsissive about it was a mistake.

6) Relying on anger from 2000: Not enough, and it didn't even get him close in Florida. Massive miscalculation to think people following Michael Moore represented traditional Democrats.

and the big one:

7) Using Clinton lackeys for advisors: They did not have his election in their best interests. They are in the tank for Hillary. Way too polarizing - Lockhart, McCurry, Devine, Backus, McAuliffe.

[Dont_Tread_On_Me_888]

IYHO, WHAT WAS KERRY'S BIGGEST MISCALCULATION?

Making Taxachusetts his home state.

In this election, believeing that 51% of the voting public would see through his lies.

Yes, 49% of the voting public are total morons who would elect a traitor as Commander in Chief.

Kerry miscalculated, however, and believed that nuumber would be 51%, not 49%.

[WestVirginiaRebel]

Running as a war hero and thinking that nobody would find out that he was anything but.

Thinking that we would want to be French, like him.

Being an overall dork.

[des]

Confusing his upriver experience with a movie.

[des]

I think the country did that for him.

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

Overcalculation. He stood for nothing, believed in nothing. He had absolutely no core belief that informed him, so he calculated everything.

[Liz]

You nailed it, but good.

[des]

Especially agree with #7--they are setting us up. HRC wants the war well over by the time she runs.

[Liz]

He campaigned as the person he wanted voters to think he was, but his record showed someone who was just the opposite.

[Doogle]

believing in himself



Doogle

[Liz]

Heheh........thinking he was presidential material was a huge miscalculation.