Posted on 11/03/2004 4:40:50 AM PST by miltonim
Once again, exit polls (search) received a black eye in the presidential election.
By the time most of the polls closed in precincts across the country Tuesday night, real numbers began to suggest that the early estimations that had been so upbeat for Sen.
John Kerry were over-inflated — so much so, that FOX News Channel decided to quit using the exit poll results Tuesday evening, calling them inaccurate and unreliable.
All suggested unusually strong numbers for Kerry Early numbers looked so positive for Kerry that FOX News analyst Jim Pinkerton, at 3:30 p.m. EST, said, "I think it looks good for angry Democrats."
NBC News' David Gregory said Bush "appeared subdued," while ABC News' Terry Moran noted the president had expressed a "rare sense of doubt."
Later on FOX News, analysts talked openly about how some actual results contradicted exit polls numbers.
"Either the exit polls are completely wrong or George Bush loses," FOX News analyst Susan Estrich said. By midnight, Bush was declared the winner in Florida, though throughout the day the state had been predicted a winner for Kerry.
Similar predictions in Ohio were also found to be wrong as the state was put in Bush's column.
"We began noticing there was some very odd things," in the polls, Bush spokeswoman Karen Hughes told FOX News.
"We knew there were some problems from the get-go."
One Republican strategist told FOX News that "in the beginning of the night, we were asking how we could have been so far off.
"I bought a box of Kleenex. But I didn't open them," he said. Exit polls did elicit some news about voters' moods, which suggested that neither candidate had a clear mandate on the issues.
(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...
Zogby's reputation should rightfully be in tatters.
As Brit Hume pointed out last night, exit polls were created to gather data on voting demographics, issues and trends, and were not intended to be a predictor of final voter percentages.
Speaking of polls, where is John Zogby today?
In a cave with Osama?
OK..I'll accept that, but why do we have to discuss that data before the election is over..
Wrong. It is the biggest loser.
They should be actively ignored.
"I didn't see Estrich on FNC after it started becoming apparent that Bush had Ohio. She made two laughably false predictions in a ten minute period. I guess she decided to go get drunk somewhere, though she might have been already."
She was higher than a kite.
You'll find this interesting..Last night, I went for a run at about 6PM..had Mark Levin on the Walkman. that's when everyone was sooo down about the exit polls, especially from PA..Levin had a caller from PA, who said there was an exit poller outside his precinct. The caller said the poller just stood by the car, did NOT approach anyone.people had to walk up to them to be polled, and they had to fill out a mutli-page questionaire......no way would I do that..and hardly a representative sample..
The public analysis will be quiet, superficial, or both.
Sabato was definitely very angry about the exit polling. He said someone needed to be held accountable because all the news stations got the same information and were reporting it as a runaway for Kerry--19 point spread in Pennsylvania, Florida for Kerry, Virginia too close to call, etc.
I remember coming in and reading Free Republic at approx. 3 p.m. yesterday. It was definitely a downer after Drudge reported the first exit polls on his site.
Thank goodness the mods pulled several threads after the Drudge thread concerning exit polls, which did help lighten the mood at FR. But before that it was definitely one of confusion and a sense of dread.
Our guy came through. We won. Let's hope that Kerry at 10 a.m. will realize that fact and concede the election to Bush.
ABSO-FREEKIN-LUTELY. THIS WAS THE LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE MSM TO GRAB IT FOR THEIR FRENCH-MAN.
TOTALLY TOTALLY PLANNED !!!!
When you consider how much we won and how much was against us... it is truly a miracle !
The PRAYERHADEEN
So that is where Mike Wallace got his script from....
These people need to make sure they put their clothes on before they go on camera today, cause they sure were stripped naked last night.
Sabato is hardly the impartial observer he claims to be. He called the race wrong for more than six months, and certainly took a beating on the composition of the Senate and House. Hopefully, he will be shunted off to PBS or some minor radio station in Charlottesville.
That is all it was and it was all too predictable. As soon as I heard that there was going to be exit polling and that the results were going to be known on election day I knew that the goal of the polling was to give a boost to Kerry and that the results would be favorable to Kerry. This was the final piece in the MSM plan to win the election for the Democrats. That's all it was and nothing more and it failed.
Not really. They were constantly mentioned and commented upon into the early morning hours, especially by Brit Hume. Very disappointing. Seems like this little analysis report is a CYA piece by FNC.
Sabato is getting on my last nerve.
Just saw him on CBS say Kerry needs to make a gracious concession, BUT, he hastily added that President Bush needs to be a gracious winner. He went on to say it's "both sides of the spectrum".
There is zero evidence that President Bush would behave boorishly and in less than the best interests of this country.
Here are the three reasons I think the exit polls were skewed:
1. Intentional skewed polling- no explanation needed
2. Inaccurate responses- unlike in the polling booth, the exit poll is not very private. Imagine a couple conservatives going to the polls with liberal acquaintances, and the whole group being exit polled at once. Given the usual reaction of rabid liberals to conservatives, I'd not be surprised to see large numbers of people who voted Bush to mumble "Yeah, what she said..." after their friends are asked. I'd also not discount intentional inaccurate answers just for the sheer fun of screwing with the exit poll organizations: "For President? I voted Prohibition party!" said while wearing a Budweiser t-shirt.
3. Here's what I think had the greatest effect- unlike past years, when early exit polls may have convinced some on the apparent losing side to stay home, it instead galvanized more people to be sure to stand in the long lines and be sure their vote was cast.
Maybe the exit pollsters only went to heavily Democratic precincts (the better to propagandize you with, my dear...)
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