Replies

My source has responded to the OBL tape
The report will be available on the IntelCenter site
(http://www.intelcenter.com) as soon as it's completed.

IntelCenter
Intelligence Note

Threat of Attack Following OBL Video

5 Nov. 2004
POC: info@intelcenter.com
(http://www.intelcenter.com)

We will be releasing an in-depth analysis of the 29 Oct. video address by Osama bin Laden in the next 12 hours. However, one initial finding warrants immediate release.

Since January 2002, there have been only three direct addresses in audio or video form by Osama bin Laden to the American people. All three of these addresses occurred in Oct. One in 2002, 2003 and now 2004. In both 2002 and 2003, these addresses were followed by signature al-Qaeda attacks within 1-53 days.

With the added effort al-Qaeda exerted to make the 29 Oct. OBL address appear in video, something not done since 27 Dec. 2001, and with English subtitles, there is added concern about its significance. This is compounded when viewed in light of the English spoken address to Americans by Azzam al-Amriki the week before.

Based on this pattern, the variations in the OBL and Azzam al-Amriki addresses and what is known about al-Qaeda's messaging strategies, we believe there is a higher than normal likelihood that al-Qaeda will attempt to execute an attack within CONUS or against US interests abroad in countries other than Iraq and Afghanistan in the next 60
days. There is also a possibility that these attacks will be aimed at American allies, however, the additional emphasis placed on addressing the American people, leads us to believe the greatest risk is to American interests.

ADDRESSEES OF OBL'S AUDIO/VIDEO STATEMENTS
The below bullet list covers audio/video statements made by Osama bin Laden between Jan. 2002 and 1 Nov. 2004. It shows who each address by Osama bin Laden was directed to. Frequently this is pointed out by Osama bin Laden in the first few lines of each statement. There were other written statements issued during this period that are not
reflected here.

- - 29 Oct. 2004 - Americans
- - 6 May 2004 - Ummah and Muslim Brothers
- - 15 Apr. 2004 - Europeans
- - 4 Jan. 2004 - Ummah and Muslim Brothers
- - 18 Oct. 2003 - Iraqi People and Americans
- - April 2003 - Muslim Brothers
- - Feb. 2003 - Palestinians and Muslim Brothers
- - 11 Feb. 2003 - Muslim Brothers in Iraq
- - 12 Nov. 2002 - US Allies
- - 6 Oct. 2002 - Americans

ATTACKS FOLLOWING OBL ADDRESSES TO AMERICANS

- - Following 18 Oct. 2003 Address to Americans:

- - 8 Nov. 2003 - Vehicular Bombing of the al-Muhaya Housing Compound - Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
- - 15 Nov. 2003 - Vehicular Bombings of Synagogues - Istanbul, Turkey
- - 20 Nov. 2003 - Vehicular Bombings of HSBC Bank HQ & UK Consulate -Istanbul Turkey

- - Following 6 Oct. 2002 Address to Americans:

- - 6 Oct. 2002 - Vehicular Bombing of Limburg Oil Tanker - off Coast of Yemen
- - 8 Oct. 2002 - Shooting Targeting US Marines - Failaka, Kuwait
- - 28 Nov. 2002 - SAM Strike & Vehicular Bombing in Mombasa, Kenya
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