[Mikey_1962]

If we take IA WI & OH we don't need FLA.

[Alberta's Child]

I would have that by now most of us would have learned to ignore these polls. There is such a wide discrepancy from one poll to another that they've become largely meaningless.

Any polling organization that wants to be taken seriously should offer a $10 million contribution to the charity of the winning candidate's choice if their final pre-election results are off by more than a single percentage point.

[gridlock]

That gets the President to 269. A 269/269 tie moves it to the House of Representatives.

OTOH, if the President takes HI or NH, it would put him over the top.

[CatOwner]

"If we take IA WI & OH we don't need FLA."

Bingo! As dreary as it has been reading the latest polls numbers the last couple of days, President Bush still have more ways to win this election than does Kerry.

[JLS]

Let's see:

FL + OH = 20 + 27 = 47

OH + IA + WI = 20 + 7 + 10 = 37

So lets see:

South-FL = 100
SW/Mount+AK = 105 [Including NM]
IN + MO + WV = 28
Total = 233
269 - 233 = 36

So yes OH + IA + WI means Bush is reelected even without FL in this senario.

[KwasiOwusu]

"If we take IA WI & OH we don't need FLA"

True, but Quinnipiac has Bush ahead by 8 points just today.
I can't see how Fox can have Bush behind by 5, while Quinnipiac has Bush ahead by 8.
That is a difference of a massive 13 points!
Doesn't make sense, especially when you look at Mason Dixon and Rasmussen who have Bush ahead by an average of 4.5%.

For now, I'd go be the average at Realclearpolitics and say Bush will win Florida.

[chimera]

OTOH, all it would take is Bush holding everything he had in 2000. Just take FL and OH and we're in. That's all it comes down to. Do as well as we did last time. Surely that should be possible for a sitting President.

Heck, we don't even have to do as well. We can still lose NH and come out ahead because of reapportionment. And I think we have a decent shot at picking off NM from the Gore column. That gives us a little breathing room.

I've been saying all along, to the Bush team, please, just please do what it takes to win OH and FL. That's the ballgame right there.