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Gallup : Bush 49 Kerry 47 LV
CNN ^ | 10/31/04

Posted on 10/31/2004 5:20:29 PM PST by motife

A separate Gallup poll of likely voters indicated a similar split nationwide, with 49 percent choosing Bush and 47 percent taking Kerry -- a virtual tie given the margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Independent candidate Ralph Nader had 1 perc

(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: gallup; gwb2004; kewl; polls
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To: JonDavid

You have the answer. Weekend poll. The last Gallup (+CNN+USA Today) has the same numbers as the last one. Sorry, folks, but the last accurate polls were conducted October 26-28. Anything after that is unreliable.


81 posted on 10/31/2004 6:03:13 PM PST by AmishDude (It's ZOTerrific.)
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To: texasmountainman

Has he updated to reflect this information?


82 posted on 10/31/2004 6:03:59 PM PST by Perdogg (Dubya - Right Man, Right Job, at the Right Time!)
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To: nelibeli

This poll also THROWS OUT PEOPLE WHO HAVE ALREADY VOTED.


83 posted on 10/31/2004 6:04:44 PM PST by jimbo123
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To: flashbunny

Thank you! Why can't people get it through their heads about weekend polling. Some people act is if they're going to be jumping off bridges because of these polls. The glass is half full not half empty!


84 posted on 10/31/2004 6:05:38 PM PST by Moconservative
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To: jimbo123

No poll does that jimbo. They may be wrong, but they are not THAT dumb.


85 posted on 10/31/2004 6:07:33 PM PST by Torie
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To: jimbo123

Most of the early voters went for Kerry. That means its worse.


86 posted on 10/31/2004 6:09:40 PM PST by lasereye
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To: motife
For Gallups final poll, they allocated the undecideds.

The client (CNN) wanted Kerry momentuum, so Gallup had to generate two polls: one for the client and then the real one.

All these geniuses succeeded in doing was to create a greater perception of a close race and thereby increase Republic turnout.

Democrat fraud is already planned and shouldn't be substantailly affected by a perception of a close race.

87 posted on 10/31/2004 6:10:05 PM PST by Praxeologue
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To: Torie

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/usatodaypolls.htm

From Gallup:

1. (Asked of those who have not already voted) Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates, and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo as independent candidates. Would you vote for:

1-1. (Asked of those who already voted) Who did you vote for in the presidential election?


"^ Beginning with October 22-24 poll, those who indicated they had already voted were asked who they voted for rather than who they would for if the election were held today."

The numbers being reported are for question 1. They are not reporting Question 1-1.


88 posted on 10/31/2004 6:12:56 PM PST by jimbo123
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To: lasereye

Bush operatives say they went for Bush. Spin, spin, spin, and then spin some more. Nobody knows.


89 posted on 10/31/2004 6:12:56 PM PST by Torie
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To: jimbo123

You really think Gallup would exclude from aggregate poll numbers those that have already voted? Give me a break. The odds of that happening are zero. Zero. You can write that down.


90 posted on 10/31/2004 6:14:45 PM PST by Torie
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To: motife

Tonight's Gallup poll question with respect to congressional party preference shows a 4% swing from last week: From 50-47 in favor of Republicans to 48-47 Democrats (see table at USA Today website: http://www.usatoday.com). This indicates that Gallup almost certainly had at least 4% more Democrats in this week's sample. If you adjust the Presidential results for this difference, Bush has a 6 point lead, very similar to last week's results. The higher sampling of Dems would also explain the 5% decline in Pres. Bush's approval rating from last week.


91 posted on 10/31/2004 6:16:40 PM PST by picturefan
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To: StJacques

Eliminate the bogus Florida and Ohio data, and it shows no such kerry surge. Too many good polling firms have the same dates polled, and Bush is either even or ahead in Ohio, and all have Bush up in Florida.

LLS


92 posted on 10/31/2004 6:17:16 PM PST by LibLieSlayer (kerry SUCKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
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To: lasereye

52 Bush 47 kerry nationally among early voters (AP, CNN, Reuters). Get your numbers straight.

LLS


93 posted on 10/31/2004 6:19:21 PM PST by LibLieSlayer (kerry SUCKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
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To: Torie

They admitted that the poll numbers being reported on CNN do not include early voters. Read this link:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/usatodaypolls.htm

Once a person votes early, Gallup does not count them in their likely voter results.


94 posted on 10/31/2004 6:19:24 PM PST by jimbo123
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To: WashingtonSource

Anyone know if cnn/gallup did this same adjusting for undecided in 2000


95 posted on 10/31/2004 6:20:34 PM PST by soxfanforbush
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To: jimbo123

I don't think that's true with respect to Gallup's exclusion of early voters. Their footnotes at the USA today site indicate they did include early voters (i.e. they were asked who they voted for rather than who they intended to vote for).


96 posted on 10/31/2004 6:21:45 PM PST by picturefan
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To: jimbo123

You are misreading the poll, but in any event, those who already voted, voted 49% to 47% for Bush, if one believes the poll is perfectly accurate.


97 posted on 10/31/2004 6:24:12 PM PST by Torie
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To: picturefan

The are only reporting LIKELY VOTERS in this poll. They are hiding their results for EARLY VOTERS.


98 posted on 10/31/2004 6:24:24 PM PST by jimbo123
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To: jimbo123

Actually, the only thing that is differnt is how the question was phrased. There is otherwise no distinction between not yet voted and voted.


99 posted on 10/31/2004 6:25:29 PM PST by Torie
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To: Torie

I am not misreading the poll. They are reporting LIKELY VOTERS only.


100 posted on 10/31/2004 6:25:43 PM PST by jimbo123
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