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Final Gallup 49-47

Posted on 10/31/2004 5:11:07 PM PST by VAGOP

Just reported by Aaron Brown on CNN-


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: gallup; gwb2004; kewl; polls
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To: VAGOP

Why don't they make these polls a little more confusing and contradictory? It's starting to look like November 2000. I wonder if some of these pollsters have any idea what is going to happen.


161 posted on 10/31/2004 6:20:15 PM PST by rdl6989
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To: VAGOP

I like these results. W. is far enough up to handle the supposed allocaiton of incumbents even with skewed weekend data. Bush wins big.


162 posted on 10/31/2004 6:20:30 PM PST by KrazyEyezKillah
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To: Illinois Rep
Ohio Zogby Bush +3 Gallup Kerry +4
Penn Zogby Kerry +5 Gallup Bush +4
FL Zogby Kerry +1 Gallup Kerry +3
WI Zogby Kerry +7 Gallup Bush +8
IA Zogby Kerry +2 Gallup Bush +6

It is stupid and insane. If there was ever an election cycle that is going to prove once and for all that polls are useless and the pollsters don't have a clue and are jerking our chains for profit, this is it.

Polls are junk science.

163 posted on 10/31/2004 6:22:06 PM PST by DestroytheDemocrats
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To: ambrose

Tie goes our way


164 posted on 10/31/2004 6:22:16 PM PST by trubluolyguy (Where do bigots get the idea that God is as close minded as they are?)
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To: Neets

No one is winning this in a landslide


165 posted on 10/31/2004 6:23:07 PM PST by trubluolyguy (Where do bigots get the idea that God is as close minded as they are?)
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To: All
Sick of talking about polls?

In case anyone's interested, Ann Coulter was on Real Time w/ Bill Maher, and it will be repeated tonight at 12:25am on HBO.

Ann got in some excellent shots at the weenie-libs.



166 posted on 10/31/2004 6:25:12 PM PST by HalleysFifth
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To: OneTimeLurker

That would be the point my friend


167 posted on 10/31/2004 6:26:12 PM PST by trubluolyguy (Where do bigots get the idea that God is as close minded as they are?)
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To: All

For those of you that believe polls, yes, I'm a sceptic since no poll can claim 100% accuracy, this is a good result, imo.

If it's a weekend poll, that Bush is tied in RV, and up to in LV is more than I would expect.

Also, Harris (not interactive) and Mason Dixon are the other two supposedly right up there with Gallop in polling credibility. Harris apparently nailed 2000 closer than anyone. Mason Dixon nailed the state results in 2002 better than anyone.

But, like I said, I look at all polling with salt, good or bad for my guy.


168 posted on 10/31/2004 6:27:20 PM PST by Soul Seeker
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To: VAGOP

THE story that
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John Kerry's Discharge
He won't sign Form 180
What is he hiding?

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he was stripped of all of his famous but questionable Navy awards and medals.

And the kicker? The evidence is on his website!"

http://worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=41200

BUT
ABC, AP, CBS, CNN, FOX, MSNBC, NBC, NY Times
made sure you knew about the "Bush" documents.

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http://www.gulflive.com/opinion/mississippipress/index.ssf?/base/opinion/109904493874180.xml

THE Next Smoking Gun - the "proof"

http://www.combatvetsagainstkerry.com/proof.htm

Kerry's Military Discharge. What's Kerry Hiding?

http://www.humaneventsonline.com/blog-buzzcut.php?range=10/24/2004+-+10/30/2004

Kerry's Dishonorable Discharge

http://www.townhall.com/columnists/markalexander/ma20041023.shtml

Editorial Comments about Kerry's Discharge

http://www.combatvetsagainstkerry.com/dischargeeditorials.htm

Kerry Military Discharge Deception, look at the online documentation!

http://www.combatvetsagainstkerry.com/discharge2.htm

Mystery Surrounds Kerry's Navy Discharge

http://www.nysun.com/article/3107

The original article, posted 9/24/04

http://www.combatvetsagainstkerry.com/discharge.htm

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Tick, Tick, Tick, Tick


169 posted on 10/31/2004 6:27:36 PM PST by 68-69TonkinGulfYachtClub (Nov 2 : Remember the 58,000 + Names on the Wall)
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To: ambrose

I'd love to plunk down about $1000 bucks on it being a tie. I've done several of those interactive maps and it looks real plausible.


170 posted on 10/31/2004 6:29:08 PM PST by L`enn
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To: picturefan
CHILL .....

TAKE A BREATH EVERYONE, and look at the facts. The best Kerry can do in any of these poll is get a TIE.

I just went to RCP and looked at their national poll history back to the 1st of September. Their have been 78 national polls during the last 2 months. Here is the breakdown of those 78 national polls.

Buhs has led in 59 of these polls (largest lead +16)

Kerry has lead in 5 (largest lead +4)

14 Ties

Bush was at 50% or higher in 26 of these polls (54% highest)

Kerry was at 50% 1 time.

Bush has been in the 48-51% range for several weeks now. Kerry's range has been in the 45-47% range.

Antyhinng can still happen, and as many have said, it's all about getting out the vote now. I still think it will it up with Bush winning 5-7%, and 320 EV's.

171 posted on 10/31/2004 6:30:21 PM PST by gswilder
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To: Cedric

I am one of the few people that believe the DUI had nothing to do with the slide. I think it was bad polling. That is what has me nervous this go around. I'd like to think that these professional pollsters have sharpened their pencils since 2000 and their real goofup of the 2002 midterm races. Some here think they allow their biases to show through, and perhaps they do, but I think they are more driven by a drive to be accurate as that translates to dollars in their pockets.


172 posted on 10/31/2004 6:32:22 PM PST by L`enn
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To: Soul Seeker

Thing about Presidential Polls, when was the last time there was an election upset for President? 2000 one could argue but it really wasn't. It was a dead heat most the way. The closest thing to a Presidential Election upset in my lifetime was 1980 when Reagan tarred Carter when it was supposed to be somewhat close.
In my lifetime I have seen a lot of state races end in upsets. Pataki over Cuomo, Cuomo over Wilson., Ventura in Minnesota, Nethercutt over Foley. Presidential elections hold true to form for the most part.


173 posted on 10/31/2004 6:36:21 PM PST by L`enn
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To: VAGOP; Admin Moderator

Please correct the title. The information is WRONG.

The title needs to be: Final Gallup 49-49


Unfortunately, the real numbers are as above, NOT 49-47.


% GEORGE W. BUSH 49
% JOHN KERRY 49
% RALPH NADER 1
Oct 29 - 31, 2004
Based on Likely Voters


Here is the link to confirm:

http://www.gallup.com/election2004/


174 posted on 10/31/2004 6:39:15 PM PST by FairOpinion (GET OUT THE VOTE. ENSURE A BUSH/CHENEY WIN.)
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To: Illinois Rep
I'm a packin' now!!! Live in Maryland, but that ain't south. It's only a hop, skip and a jump to VA!!! Oh hell, now I got to start unpackin'! Why? Because I have faith that Dubya's the winner come the 2nd.
175 posted on 10/31/2004 6:41:28 PM PST by rjmeagle (Do Not Cast Pearls Before Swine (Dems)!!!)
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To: GottaLuvAkitas1

The final Gallup in 2000 was Bush 47 Gore 45.


176 posted on 10/31/2004 6:41:31 PM PST by Moby Grape
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To: VAGOP

If Bush was down in Florida, he would be living there for the past week and through Tuesday. I highly doubt that tis is accurate or shows what Bush sees in his internals.


177 posted on 10/31/2004 6:42:09 PM PST by TennTuxedo
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To: VAGOP
Gallup Internals: Men: Bush 54 - Kerry 40 Women: Bush 44 - Kerry 50

14 - 6 = 8

Even if you have slightly more women than men, Bush wins the election by at least 5 %


178 posted on 10/31/2004 6:43:44 PM PST by af_vet_1981
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To: Impeach the Boy

"The final Gallup in 2000 was Bush 47 Gore 45."

I was wondering about this earlier.
Thanks!


179 posted on 10/31/2004 6:43:57 PM PST by GottaLuvAkitas1 (Ronald Reagan is the TRUE "Father Of Our Country".)
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To: FairOpinion

The title is correct. Gallup came out with 49 to 47 LV final. They then added two percent to Kerry's numbers representing their belief (guess) that the last undecideds will break Kerry's way. The title is correct.


180 posted on 10/31/2004 6:45:54 PM PST by MMkennedy
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