Posted on 10/31/2004 5:11:07 PM PST by VAGOP
Just reported by Aaron Brown on CNN-
That is indeed a good sign. I've had the feeling for about three to four weeks now that Bush will edge Kerry in the popular vote, but that it'll be close enough that the electoral college could go either way. I haven't really ventured a guess as to how I think the EVs will turn out, except I can say that I have a hard time imagining a Kerry win in Florida, and I think his Ohio numbers are softer than many analysts do.
If my back were against the wall, I would say that Bush will carry both Florida and Ohio, but I wouldn't bet the house on it though.
Exactly. And there is Monday, for the Pentagon, Tommy Franks, etc. to resume straightening out people about the bogus 377 tons missing (of 400,000 tons confiscated) report.
They didn't weight anything, that I am aware of. They said that there were about 2 percent undecided in their final poll.
Gallup has maintained all year long that undecideds break for the challenger, so they applied this belief to their poll and predict that the national popular vote will be 49-49 percent. It's more like they gave the undecideds to Kerry... but I don't think they weighted for partisan ID.
The only time Kerry has led in Gallup was 10/9-10...a Saturday/Sunday poll. Bush's biggest lead was when they threw in a Thursday.
29-Oct thru 31-Oct... Bush +2.... Fri, Sat, Sun
22-Oct thru 24-Oct... Bush +5.... Fri, Sat, Sun
14-Oct thru 16-Oct... Bush +8.... Th, Fr, Sat
9- Oct thru 10-Oct.. Kerry +1.... Sat, Sun
1- Oct thru 3- Oct........... Tie..... Fri, Sat, Sun
This media coverage is really p**'ing me off. They've rigged this to push undecideds to Kerry.
But I still hold to my belief that anyone that undecided at this point in the race is very unlikely to stand in a long line to vote.
I still think this is a Bush +4 race.
The states? Gimme a break. I don't think the pollsters have any idea, especially since all their final polls are on Halloween weekend. I predict they'll be wearing egg-on-face costumes come Tuesday night.
LOL, they added two pounds to the 47 pounds of votes Kerry had. Thats called weighting.
For us down here, we can't figure out what anyone sees in him which is I think prompting some of the panic - if such a loser candidate has close to half the vote, what are we missing down here?
If Kerry wins maybe we should split the nation the South can have Bush..the North can have Kerry and lets see what part of the country prospers and who falls into socialized everything!
He has a chance here.
I agree. It's a business. They are trying to get it right.
Bush won the EV while losing the PV in 2000. He comes into '04 withn a 7 EV built-in cushion. If he wins the PV this time, he'll cruise to an easy victory.
What troubles me is the haunting memory of the 2000 slide. I know it was DUI related but it still happened.
Sure would like to hear that the undecideds are breaking heavily for W.
Weird! How can things change like that?
This poll THROWS OUT PEOPLE WHO HAVE ALREADY VOTED.
BINGO
I'll raise you to 51/47 by throwing in a weather factor.
"Good news for the president in two states Gore carried, Iowa and New Mexico; virtual tie in Ohio, four-point Bush edge in Florida" Mason Dixon
Gallup has Bush 271, Kerry 267...a Bush win.
Based on likely voters, not based on people who have voted early. Gallup is not reporting their early voters results.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/usatodaypolls.htm
From Gallup:
1. (Asked of those who have not already voted) Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates, and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo as independent candidates. Would you vote for:
1-1. (Asked of those who already voted) Who did you vote for in the presidential election?
"^ Beginning with October 22-24 poll, those who indicated they had already voted were asked who they voted for rather than who they would for if the election were held today."
The numbers being reported are for question 1. They are not reporting Question 1-1.
Tonight's Gallup poll question with respect to congressional party preference shows a 4% swing from last week: From 50-47 in favor of Republicans to 48-47 Democrats (see table at USA Today website: http://www.usatoday.com). This indicates that Gallup almost certainly had at least 4% more Democrats in this week's sample. If you adjust the Presidential results for this difference, Bush has a 6 point lead, very similar to last week's results. The higher sampling of Dems would also explain the 5% decline in Pres. Bush's approval rating from last week.
In the history of polling, Gallup has never come out with a tied race in its final pre-election estimate -- just one more footnote for the history books in a history-making campaign.
No need to spin the title.
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