Final Gallup 49-47

[VAGOP]

Just reported by Aaron Brown on CNN-

[Dog]

49?

Nope....

54-47..

[thecanuck]

With that big of a swing in one week, why aren't they proclaiming the 'big Kerry move'. Its almost a declaration that either last week's poll was crap or this one is. To ignore the movement and not try to explain it it telling.

Personally, I felt last week's was crap and they were setting up for a story about how Kerry closed strong. All the polls suggest big resistence for Kerry to go over the top. As a result I think it is still a point or two outcome with Bush on the right side of it.

[RW1974]

The bottom line is that Gallup's final LV survey is B49 K47 but they're predicting a 49-49 tie by giving Kerry 100% of the undecided vote. This is very disappointing behaviour from Gallup and is really a black mark on their reputation.

[Ravi]

Bush in Florida today was a good thing. That should keep Florida safe. On another thread, based on early voting statewide in Florida, Bush was ahead by about 125,000 votes. This is with about 20 - 25% of actual turnout who have voted. I guess they based this on demographics of voters and this was their conservative estimate. Apparently, this was mentioned on local Florida political program. There was a Dem on that panel who heard this and did not disagree. So this leads me to believe we are ahead in early voting. 125,000 lead (conservative estimate) with about a quarter of the populace already voted is going to be difficult for Kerry to overcome.

If about 6.25 million voters vote, that means about 1.5 million or so have already voted. If we have a lead of 125,000, that leaves Kerry only with 4.75 million to make up that difference. That will be extremely difficult.

[Dog Gone]

Well, you've held my hand through '98, 2000, '02, so I guess I'll go with you now. I'm still TERRIFIED!

I will allow you to be nervous, Howlin, but nothing approaching "terrified."

Just a little pep talk here....

Kerry has no appeal in the south. None. The idea that the choice of Edwards would change that is silly at best. Edwards couldn't even win re-election in your state.

So forget the south for Kerry.

The way the states are lined up, Kerry has to draw a Royal Flush in order to win. I'll pass on the obvious follow-up potty joke to merely say that it won't happen.

If I'm wrong, Howlin, please pound on me. I'll deserve it. But I've never been more sure of anything political in my life.

[Terp]

This is another Fri-Sun poll. I guess the polled earlier today when we were all out doing other things.

Weekend Poll. Not to worry folks!!!

[neutrality]

Those are rounded numbers, so it could have been 48.5-47.4 and after adjusting 49.4-48.5

[CWW]

Your right about Gallup allocating the entire 2% undecideds to Kerry. Contrary to the myth, in the last 50 years, the undecided either favored the incumbent or split right sown the middle. There's NO empirical basis for allocating the entire 2% to Kerry.

Gallup may be the Gold Standard, but garbage in, garbage out. This is a total weekend poll 29-31. Add 2-3pts for the republicans and + 1 pt of undecideds and Bush is likey up by 4 or 5 pts.

Election night it will be Bush 52, Kerry 47.

[Illinois Rep]

Try this on for size

Ohio Zogby Bush +3 Gallup Kerry +4
Penn Zogby Kerry +5 Gallup Bush +4
FL Zogby Kerry +1 Gallup Kerry +3
WI Zogby Kerry +7 Gallup Bush +8
IA Zogby Kerry +2 Gallup Bush +6

Try to figure it out!

[deport]

I'm still TERRIFIED!

---

There's not much you can do at this stage except help in the GOTV efforts....

These pollsters are covering their rears as they aren't sure what to make of this election based upon what happened in 2000. VP Cheney made a prediction and I suspect he's got good info from which to make the call.

President Bush has made his last swing through FL.... that should tell you he's confident/comfortable with their internal polls or else their would be major empahsis placed upon it via the President, VP, Laura, or others...

[Ravi]

I hope no more national polls left. Let's just vote.

[Dog]

But I've never been more sure of anything political in my life.

I here you ....and I second that.

Howlin I'm with DG...

[Bungarian]

Rush has been talking about this all week. In a Presidential election the undecideds break for the President. In senatorial races the undecideds break for the challenger.

Still I heard someone on Fox saying the undecided break for the challenger???

[AntiGuv]

Yesterday I predicted 49.5% to 49.3% .. seems Gallup agrees with me!

[GottaLuvAkitas1]

"DO NOT WORRY YOURSELVES TO DEATH...go over to jaycost.blogspot.com and take a deep deep breath
CHILL I SAY!!!!!"

Very good read. Thanks for the link.

[freestyle]

That's insane. Polls suck.

[jwalsh07]

54-47..

Yo Dog, check your math, its gettin' fuzzy. :-}

[Jorge]

Another tied poll.
This is getting ridiculous.

[jwalsh07]

Yesterday I predicted 49.5% to 49.3% .. seems Gallup agrees with me!

Actually not, your prediction fails by a bit. Gallup LV's come out 49-47.

[Dog]

I demand a recount.....get be David Boise.

:-)