Slight Bush Margin in Final Days of Campaign

Pew Institute ^ | 10/31/04 | Pew Institute

[nj26]

President George W. Bush holds a slight edge over Senator John Kerry in the final days of Campaign 2004. The Pew Research Center's final pre-election poll of 1,925 likely voters, conducted Oct. 27-30, finds Bush with a three-point edge (48% to 45% for Kerry); Ralph Nader draws 1%, and 6% are undecided.

The poll finds indications that turnout will be significantly higher than in the two previous presidential elections, especially among younger people. Yet Bush gets the boost Republican candidates typically receive when the sample is narrowed from the base of 2,408 registered voters to those most likely to vote. (Among all registered voters, Kerry and Bush are in a virtual tie: 46% Kerry, 45% Bush).

[rushmom]

The lowlife DUI charge, so typical of your Democrat party, threw most pollsters off last time.

[ambrose]

Compare apples to apples. 46 to 43 is without undecideds allocated. With undecideds, Pew's final 2000 numbers were 49 for Bush, 47 for Gore.

No more or less accurate than the much vaunted Zogby.

[AmericaOne]

Txsleuth wrote:

"You talk about being doomed. Fox News had a dang NEWS ALERT to announce that Washington won and that maybe this means we won't have to wait until Tuesday - Kerry wins!!

I kid you not they actually put that information, during a time of terrorist threats, up as a NEWS ALERT -- these media people do not have a clue."


Roger Ailes e-mail address:

roger.ailes@foxnews.com

[reformedliberal]

:)

[reformedliberal]

Oh, please. 75% of America has no idea of who or what f'n is because the media keeps it under wraps and derides anyone who speaks the truth.

I am more encouraged by the fact that despite being opposed by the entire left, internationalist establishment of the world, Dubyah is in the lead.

I would be more encouraged if more people would think in terms of how we overcome the inculcation. Here, we have organized a Young Conservative group and are in process of turning an informal remedial history education project into a book club so we can expose our 20-somethings to the truth. Tiny steps, but positive ones.

Have you worked on the BC04 campaign or on other R ticket campaigns this year? I have. There are a lot of good hardworking patriots out there. If we fight hard and still lose, we may fight the loss, if it is due to fraud.

It ain't over til its over and it won't be over even then. When the left lost because Reagan won twice and Bush41 won once, they regrouped and organized and they won again with Clinton, twice. We also regrouped and organized over those 8 years and we won in 1994 & 2000 & 2002.

I will have a real crash and burn if we lose this one, but I won't quit and neither will most of us and we will take it back.

If we lose: RESIST. If we win: build on it and work for a more knowledgable America. The pajamahadeen has exposed the media. A new generation of conservative students are taking on the academy. A new GOP/RNC fights fraud and lies. We will have to re-fight this battle every 2 years. Get used to it.

[Ramrod]

The internals of these Pew Research Polls have been very illuminating. For example, Men who are fathers support Bush 61 to 35. Non-Father males split 48-47.

Married people support Bush 56 to 39 and Unmarried men and women support Kerry 56 to 36.

Folks who seldom/never attend church support Kerry 62 to 31, while once a week attenders support Bush 55 to 40.

I happen to fit into all the categories that support Bush big time, and I have a lot of friends who live in Blue States (think SF Bay Area) who also fit into all those categories. So I like to use this information with them to make them feel like they aren't the only ones who would be supporting Bush. Most other married church-attending dads also support Bush. It kind of puts a bit of peer pressure on my friends to counteract the very-liberal Bay Area culture

[yellowhammer]

Also last time the Nader vote was up around 3% in most polls and it ended up around 1%. Most of that went to Gore. So the real problem last time was the polls overestimated Nader support. This time Nader is around 1% so that's not going to be a problem this election.

[rwfromkansas]

Pray for most of the newly registered KErry Dems to NOT go vote. He has more of an edge with them. If there are more Kerry registered voters than the likely voters, Kerry may eke out a narrow win.

Heavens I hope that doesn't happen.

[faithincowboys]

Anybody watching 60 Minutes? Good Lord!!!! This is unreal.

[rwfromkansas]

No, thank goodness.

[lasereye]

Have you made a prediction?

[fortheDeclaration]

Isn't it 37% Democrats, 34% Republicans?

[ambrose]

Bush wins 51 to 47%

[jwalsh07]

"As in previous polls, Bush's supporters are much more enthusiastic than those backing Kerry. In fact, Bush registers a higher percentage of strong supporters in the final weekend of the campaign than any candidate since former President Ronald Reagan in 1984. Fully 39% of likely voters support Bush strongly, while 9% back him only moderately. Roughly three-in-ten likely voters say they support Kerry strongly (32%), and 13% back him moderately, a pattern more typical of recent presidential candidates."

Intensity check.

[Mad_Tom_Rackham]

When both turnout and the probable decisions of undecided voters are taken into account in Pew's final estimate, Bush holds a slight 51%-48% margin.

Adding 1-2 points to the Kerry total (expected vote fraud), yields: Bush 51%, Kerry 50%, Nader 1%.

[Excuse_My_Bellicosity]

Idiot press. I'll bet they called Reagan vs. Mondale a squeaker on Nov. 1st, too.

[lasereye]

That doesn't measure the intensity of anti-Bush sentiment among Kerry voters though, or people voting for Kerry out of fear - social security for example.

[jwalsh07]

True enough.

[Freepdonia]

I'm glad to have been one of the Republicans picked for the poll yesterday. :-)

[rightinthemiddle]

Fox News is becoming another MSNBC. It's a shame. I think they're bowing to the pressure of the liberal elites (snide comments at cocktail parties) and the demonstrators at the RNC.