And the next president will be ... ? PACKERS-REDSKINS GAME ON SUNDAY WILL TELL YOU

Kentucky.com ^ | Fri, Oct. 29, 2004 | Joseph White

[Andy from Beaverton]

Posted on Fri, Oct. 29, 2004

 

And the next president will be ... ?

PACKERS-REDSKINS GAME ON SUNDAY WILL TELL YOU

By Joseph White

ASSOCIATED PRESS

ASHBURN, Va. - This election season, Washington Redskins cornerback Fred Smoot has a predicament faced by many NFL players: a Democrat's background and a Republican's income.

"They turn Republican. I see it all the time," Smoot said. "It all goes back to changing your economic value."

Smoot, a black from modest means in Mississippi, has decided to choose his roots over his pocketbook. He is supporting John Kerry for president.

"When you go into a higher tax bracket, all of a sudden you don't want to vote for this candidate because he's going to raise taxes," Smoot said. "I thought about it. I'm not going to solely vote for this candidate just because he's going to save me a couple of dollars and it not turn out to be the best thing for me or my country."

That, however, presents Smoot with another dilemma: For Kerry to win, the Redskins have to lose on Sunday -- at least according to a bizarre statistical correlation that's been accurate for seven decades.

"We've got to win this game no doubt, but I'm hoping John Kerry can kind of reverse the curse," Smoot said. "I'm wishing him luck, man. This is the millennium for all trends to be broken."

Since the Redskins became the Redskins in 1933, the result of the team's final home game before the presidential election has correctly predicted the White House winner. If the Redskins win, the incumbent party wins. If they lose, the incumbent party is ousted.

"It's kind of amazing," Coach Joe Gibbs said. "You wouldn't think something like that would line up that many times."

Gibbs said the statistic doesn't really mean anything, but he can at least pretend that it does -- because he's solidly in the Bush camp.

"Hopefully we'll have a lot of people pulling for us," said Gibbs, who voted when he traveled to his North Carolina home over the bye weekend.

Kerry's vice presidential candidate, John Edwards, has been quoted as saying he's rooting for the Packers. While no doubt thankful for the endorsement, Green Bay Coach Mike Sherman is concerned about more rudimentary matters, such as the health of quarterback Brett Favre.

"It's going to take a lot more than Packers fans to determine the outcome of an election," Sherman said.

Redskins win, incumbent wins -- a history

Since 1933, when the Boston Braves were renamed the Redskins, the result of the team's final home game before the presidential election has always correctly predicted the White House winner. If the Redskins win, the incumbent party wins. If they lose, the incumbent party is ousted. An election-by-election recap:

1936: Redskins (in final year in Boston) defeated Chicago Cardinals 13-10 on Nov. 1. Franklin Roosevelt won re-election over Alf Landon on Nov. 3.

1940: Redskins defeated Pittsburgh Pirates 37-10 on Nov. 3. Roosevelt won re-election over Wendell Willkie on Nov. 5.

1944: Redskins defeated Cleveland Rams 14-10 on Nov. 5. Roosevelt won re-election over Thomas Dewey on Nov. 7.

1948: Redskins defeated Boston Yanks 59-21 on Oct. 31. Incumbent Harry Truman (who assumed office after Roosevelt's death) defeated Dewey on Nov. 2.

1952: Redskins lost to Pittsburgh Steelers 24-23 on Nov. 2. Dwight Eisenhower defeated Adlai Stevenson on Nov. 4, returning the Republicans to the White House for the first time in 20 years.

1956: Redskins defeated Cleveland Browns 20-9 on Oct. 21. Eisenhower won re-election over Stevenson on Nov. 6.

1960: Redskins lost to Cleveland Browns 31-10 on Oct. 30. John Kennedy defeated vice president Richard Nixon on Nov. 8.

1964: Redskins defeated Chicago Bears 27-20 on Oct. 25. Lyndon Johnson (who assumed office after Kennedy's death) defeated Barry Goldwater on Nov. 3.

1968: Redskins lost to New York Giants 13-10 on Oct. 27. Nixon defeated Hubert Humphrey on Nov. 5.

1972: Redskins defeated Dallas Cowboys 24-20 on Oct. 22. Nixon won re-election over George McGovern on Nov. 7.

1976: Redskins lost to Dallas Cowboys 20-7 on Oct. 31. Jimmy Carter defeated Gerald Ford (who assumed office after Nixon's resignation) on Nov. 2.

1980: Redskins lost to Minnesota Vikings 39-14 on Nov. 2. Ronald Reagan unseated Carter on Nov. 4.

1984: Redskins defeated Atlanta Falcons 27-14 on Nov. 5. Reagan won re-election over Walter Mondale on Nov. 6.

1988: Redskins defeated New Orleans Saints 27-24 on Nov. 6. Vice president George Bush defeated Michael Dukakis on Nov. 8.

1992: Redskins lost to New York Giants 24-7 on Nov. 1. Bill Clinton unseated Bush on Nov. 3.

1996: Redskins defeated Indianapolis Colts 31-16 on Oct. 27. Clinton won re-election over Bob Dole on Nov. 5.

2000: Redskins lost to Tennessee Titans 27-21 on Oct. 30. George W. Bush defeated Al Gore on Nov. 7.

2004: Redskins host Green Bay Packers on Sunday. Bush faces John Kerry on Tuesday.

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Sunday

Green Bay at Washington

When: 1 p.m.

Records: Packers 3-4; Redskins 2-4

[The Hound Passer]

In a normal year I might hold to such superstition. In a year where Boston dispensed with the curse, smashing all sorts of records (good and bad ones) to do so, its hard hold to such coincidences that winning a ball game could be tied to winning an election.

[faithincowboys]

The difference I think is that Carter was a Southerner and did well in the South. Kerry won't do well in the South. Had Jimmah not painted himself as a Souhtern Moderate, Ford would have won.

[usslsm51]

As sure as Boston Red Sox would not win the world series. As sure as the time Florida, Florida State and Miami all lost on the same weekend.

[BlindGuardian]

GreenBay: 20

RedSkins: 14

4th Qtr, 4:40 left to go.

RedSkins mounting a comeback. This game is starting to lean toward to RedSkins.


*Edit* GreenBay had the ball but it was intercepted by the RedSkins, 3:51 left to go!

[RedWhiteBlue]

It's time to put this silly myth to bed.

Amen. Just like the belief that the party of the incumbent President always loses seats during midterm elections. We saw how that went in 2002.

[xp38]

Exactly...corelation doesn't mean causation.

[Defiant]

Another way to look at is like this:

There are 2 parties seriously vying for the White House, and each has a more or less 1 out of 2 chance of winning. Some years one has an advantage and some years the other, but for the sake of ease of analysis, let's say it's a 50/50 proposition.

You put 1000 people in a room, each flipping a coin once every 4 years. Dozens of those people might come up with a pattern that could be said to identify the winner. When one gets heads, the Republicans always win. When one gets heads, the Democrats always win. When one gets tails, the incumbent always wins. When another gets tails, the challenger always wins.

So, all those people assemble in 2004 for their quadrennial coin flip. The one whose flip is always heads when the incumbent party wins is about to toss his coin in the air. Are you nervous for President Bush? Or is it just a coin toss, with a 50/50 chance of being heads or tails?

[mabelkitty]

This is good, though.
I'm hoping that the Packers win, the Dems are overconfident, and their desperate GOTV efforts will be stunted.

[xp38]

They are saying we can blame or credit the election outcome on the Packers or Skins. Somehow I will refrain and give blame or credit to the candidates, their policy positions and the party organizations.

[Defiant]

But, but, but...the guy did his research! It's been right every time! Surely that means that it is an accurate predictor? I mean, seriously, the odds are 1 in 130,000. Don' t be so skeptical. :)

[sporkgoddess]

Hahaha, according to my brother Favre (a Bush fan) tried to throw the game... he threw 3 interceptions, two of 'em consecutive

[Byron Norris]

This is pointless. Why are we speaking football on a political board? This has no implication on the election ... if you believe this stuff then you really are a fool. Lives are at stake with this election and if Bush loses I do believe we are all doomed. Kerry at the helm is bad ... bad.

[brewcrew]

And John sKerry is most likely putting some stock in this outcome of this game.

It's hell to be superstitious. ;^)

[Soul Seeker]

Well, I can't speak for everyone, but yesterday? I stated I wanted Green Bay to win.

I'm not a big believer in superstitution. It naturally follows the best way to destroy this superstitution is for G.B. to win, and Bush to win.

Also, Kerry insulted G.B. Just as he insulted the Red Sox. I think it fitting justice to have "middle America" kick D.C.'s (RedSkins) butt. LOL

[Novel]

Well, a team from PA broke New England fans' hearts today. I'm hoping voters from PA will break Kerry's heart on Tuesday.

[Byron Norris]

True and if anything is an indicator ... Wisconsin is a swing state and DC well ... DC is a joke. You'd probably get shot if you voted for Bush there ... one city where I always live in fear when I pass through .. but seriously, I think this has no implication on who is going to win. This is about destiny and I think all and all, this is in God's hands.

[G Larry]

This will be the 2nd "Curse" lifted in a 7 day period.

[swheats]

Consider this as just one more method of predicting or projecting a winner that failed under the Bush Administration.

Anybody remember VNS (voter news service) it ended also during G W Bush run for president. Networks found it to be unreliable in giving a projected winner.