There are 2 parties seriously vying for the White House, and each has a more or less 1 out of 2 chance of winning. Some years one has an advantage and some years the other, but for the sake of ease of analysis, let's say it's a 50/50 proposition.
You put 1000 people in a room, each flipping a coin once every 4 years. Dozens of those people might come up with a pattern that could be said to identify the winner. When one gets heads, the Republicans always win. When one gets heads, the Democrats always win. When one gets tails, the incumbent always wins. When another gets tails, the challenger always wins.
So, all those people assemble in 2004 for their quadrennial coin flip. The one whose flip is always heads when the incumbent party wins is about to toss his coin in the air. Are you nervous for President Bush? Or is it just a coin toss, with a 50/50 chance of being heads or tails?
They are saying we can blame or credit the election outcome on the Packers or Skins. Somehow I will refrain and give blame or credit to the candidates, their policy positions and the party organizations.