I think the Bin Laden tape is hurting Bush because Bush is not mentioning the weakness demonstrated by it.
He is letting the media spin it as a failure.
Last weekend, the Bush team said that the race would tighten and then mid week turn into a six point Bush lead..this happened, a la Newsweek etc.
The Bush people said not to worry about polls out this weekend as Republicans always poll poorly on weekends.
Voila.
Believe me the Osama tape is not hurting Bush and he is mentioning it.
It's the AP/WashPost poll...that's what the problem is, plus it is the weekend!
Team Bush doesn't want to appear to be politicizing the tape.
Notice that Kerry did not go up, only Bush went down. Evidently, Kerry gained no support and Bush had supporters away from their homes on the weekend.