Posted on 10/29/2004 11:19:38 AM PDT by Bonaventure
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - If the historical performance of the Dow Jones industrial average is an indicator, John Kerry will be the 44th President of the United States.
According to a study by the Hirsch Organization, publishers of the Stock Trader's Almanac, if the Dow loses more than 0.5 percent of its value from the end of September to Election Day, then an incumbent president is going to lose his job. The Dow has lost 0.75 percent of its value over the past month.
This predictor has been true without exception every four years, from 1904 to the present, according to Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac and president of the Hirsch Organization.
On September 30th, the Dow closed at 10,080.27. It closed Thursday at 10,004.54. For President Bush to win re-election, the Dow would have to reach 10,412.92, or rise a 4.1 percent gain of 408 points, by Tuesday's close if this indicator is on the mark.
(Excerpt) Read more at money.cnn.com ...
The chicken bones in my last night's dinner say Nader... go figure.
True enough. However, there are also several other indicators that supposedly "guarantee" Bush will be re-elected, based on historical precedent.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
They're desperate!!
Well, crap.
That's it, I'm done...Bush is now OBVIOUSLY going to lose so I don't think I'll even bother to go out and vote.
NOT. Geez, get a life...
Historical doesn't cut it after 9.11. Hysterical would be more appropriate.
until 2004!
My tea leaves trump your chicken bones and say it's Mickey Mouse by an ear!
CNN says Dow says Kerry wins. CNN will probably bring in fortune 500 tellers on Monday night swearing that Kerry will win.
This kind of prediction works very well until it stops working. Don't worry about it.
Somebody's struggling with math at CNN.
0.5% on a Dow hovering around 10,000 is 50 points.
If the Dow is down 0.75% since the end of September, that's 75 points. For it to only be down 0.50% by election day means it has to go up 25 points.
The Dow was at 10,080 at the end of September. To be down 0.5% by election day it would have to be at 10,030. If it's at 10,005, I think it's quite possible that it just might struggle up by 25 points in the next two trading days.
Some Kerry supporter at CNN can't do math.
You are right, at first glance, that math doesnt seem to add up...
I guess these "experts" have also forgotten that sitting senators DO NOT GET ELECTED president.
Rarely, if ever . . .
We never had the damn market manipulated by DEM Billionaires before!
Go to NEWSMAX and do a search and you'll find out that a group of Dem Billionaires met on how to BRING DOWN Pesident Bush!
That kinda breaks the theory, doesn't it?
10,080.27 * 0.995 = 10029.86
These indicators are ridiculous, of course. But if CNN is going to use them, it should use them properly.
If the incumbent wins provided the Dow drops no more than 0.5% from September 30 to election day, and if the Dow stood at 10,080.27 on September 30, then isn't Bush in the clear as long as the Dow closes above 10,029.87 on Monday?
Woops - I read that wrong. I thought it was true with the exception of four years...
i guess we should just cancel the election on tuesday, saving the gov't lots of money and simply crown kerry as emperor
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