I know how you feel--I don't know whether this is good or bad, but we'll find out soon enough. Either W is doing so poorly that he needs to try to scrap together enough EV to win, or else he's comfortable in the battleground states and is going for a landslide. I doubt very much this is bluff, W and Cheney aren't about to waste any of their valuable time this late in the game if HI and NH were out of reach just to "scare" the other side.
I'm trying not to panic....but don't know why they'd go to hawaii...if we had our base down, we don't need it.
"trying not to panic....but don't know why they'd go to hawaii...if we had our base down, we don't need it."
That is a good point. However... merely getting the base down has never been Rove's strategy. Rove seems to put a premium on getting minority votes, or unexpected votes. Hawaii swinging to Bush is the most surreal development of this campaign. Plus... this throws off alot of the closer electoral vote scenarios. Nobody thought Hawaii would be anywhere near in play.
ugh!! you're still in this state of mind... why not go to HAWAII if you can pick off four more from Kerry? what a kick in the pants that would be... you know Kerry never thought he'd have to ensure HAWAII... if anyone doesn't have his base down, it's him!
does anyone know where Cheney was scheduled to be before they decided to send him to HAWAII? maybe his schedule was open for just this sort of thing...
Sending the VP for a trip to HI, just a plane ride away, is not wasting time IMO.
Now, if he spent the whole weekend there, that would concern me.
BTW, please see 72.
This is insurance. If Bush does barely win this thing, he can lose almost virtually every battleground state and STILL win if he gets HI's or NH's 4 electoral votes.
Just because they are trying to get this insurance doesn't actually mean they believe it is close enough they will need it, however. It is just a precaution in case the internal polling and GOTV efforts are way wrong the Dems are much better organized due to Moveon's drives etc., causing the race to be almost tied.
"I'm trying not to panic....but don't know why they'd go to hawaii...if we had our base down, we don't need it."
We have to win by a landslide. It is the only way we can prevent the Dems from stealing the election.
People get locked into this "just nail down the base" idea. Look at the numbers--KERRY is the one trying to hold down his base. What would you have Bush do, jsut hang around states they have locked up, or try to build on secure states by taking more EVs, so we have more of a cushion to shove in the dems's faces when they try to litigate their way to a win?
Any campaign manager who says "Ah, we have enough EV's,don't bother" should be FIRED.
You answer it yourself, but perhaps without realizing it: If we have our base down there's no reason NOT to go to Hawaii. You don't need to keep pounding away where you are winning, you are better off spending your efforts adding to states you've already got set. If Bush had won Hawaii, or if Hawaii was normally a Republican state, I'd say we were in deep dooo. But Hawaii is as leftist, usually, as my state. If it is truly in play then the odds are more toward a Bush landslide than a narrow Kerry victory.