Bush ahead 1 in Connecticut....

Polipundit ^

[watsonfellow]

I just read this on polipundit. 49% to 48%

[Cableguy]

i don't see it on the website. do you have the exact link?

[plushaye]

We're just seeing that movement now, and the polls you mention are mostly within MOE. You need to have more polls to establish a trend. It's very possible that the CT & HI are outliers just like the CO that showed Kerry up and the one with AK tied. Not enough empirical data yet to definitely say it's the trend. I'd like it to be, but it doesn't mean it is (yet). It will become more obvious in the next few days.

[amom]

http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/

[reformedliberal]

Except in 1984, did anyone know that Mondale was going down that big this far out? When did it become apparent?

[RightMike]

Bush was only down 6 and 8 in previous polls there. This is believeable. Kerry may win but this is amazing we're talkinga bout it.

[jwalsh07]

BUsh lost Ct by 18 and New Jersey by 16 in 2000. New Jersey hasn't had a poll with Kerry ahead by more than 8 in some time and with a lot of polls pretty tight. Hawaii seems to be a push. If Ct is down to a one point Kerry lead we can indeed infer that something has changed since 2000 and what changed is 9/11/01.

[Cableguy]

i don't see it there either. do you need a membership to access the data?

[Hermann the Cherusker]

We're just seeing that movement now, and the polls you mention are mostly within MOE. You need to have more polls to establish a trend. It's very possible that the CT & HI are outliers just like the CO that showed Kerry up and the one with AK tied. Not enough empirical data yet to definitely say it's the trend.

6/28/04 Quinnipiac Bush 32% Kerry 50% Kerry +18%
8/17/04 Quinnipiac Bush 38% Kerry 45% Kerry +7%
9/28/04 Quinnipiac Bush 44% Kerry 50% Kerry +6%
10/24/04 UConn Rumor Poll Bush 49% Kerry 48% Bush +1%

Bush moving 32-38-44-49 spells "trend" to me.

[underbyte]

Lotsa Rocker fella republicans here in CT. Local cable has plenty of Bush ads. Not many signs here but bush signs are the only ones I see here in central CT. Plenty of Kerry bumper stickers though. We vote in republican governors. I think moderate Democrats are embarrassed by Kerry. I am voting Bush on the 2nd. CT may be in Play

[Steven W.]

on the day of the polls the rumbling of the silent majority moving through the polls confirmed it for the media using their exit polling. but the libs still couldn't believe it & this has similar potential.

[SoDak]

Just getting close in CT would be a tremendous victory. Gathering up all the popular vote possible is important. We need to make for some non-working and dejected Rat lawyers on Nov 3rd by not even making it close.

[reformedliberal]

Well, the polls are trending to the Rs. Today on Wallace's show, he asked George Allen for the upset of the election and Allen said :WI. Finegold loses.

Maybe the RNC felt Tim Michels didn't need that $1.2M because he was going to beat Finegold without it.

I believe none of it. But I have to admit, there are cheering, pumped crowds wherever W goes. Anecdotally, I hear more and more people saying they may not like W, but they are voting for him on security and the WOT. He picked up the needed fractions of the factions, steadily, over the last year.

The legacy media is grudgingly saying we pick up 4 House seats and 2 Senate seats. A month ago, Pelosi was ordering the speaker plaque for her office. Last week, the D's were musing about being back in the majority in the Senate.

The judgment of the entire electorate may marginalize the appeasers and lose the election for Kerry.

[amom]

do you need a membership to access the data?

I don't know. It's my first visit there. :-)

[tejasyank]

This dovetails with Hartford Courtant endorsement

One HUGE reason rational connecticut residents may end up voting AGAINST Kerry - He is a THREAT to their JOBS

1 - Defense contractors number 1 in employment - United Technologies (HQ, Pratt & Whitney Aircraft Engines, Hamilton Sunstrand, Sikorsky Helicopters, Norden Systems); Electric Boat; General Electric; Kaman Helicopters; Groton Naval Shipyard; plus all the subcontracting base for these companies - Even Dodd has to be a hawk in terms of defense spending

2 - Insurance companies probably still #2 employer (Travelers, Aetna, Cigna.......) - Nationalized healthcare is not in CT's best interest....

[Paul8148]

I heard someone said today bush wants to make sure he wins the popular vote this time and that is why the person in the dems states like NJ.............But I think Kerry plan to tax the biggest voting block for Gore in 2000, people making over 160,000 K a year...(remember his tax plan is for anyone over 147,000K, not 200K like he claims....)is hurting Kerry in some of these nothern subrans that went Gore in 2000.....

[Paul8148]

Do not forget the drug companies employment in the state.....That is how Nancy Johnson holds on every year......

[dancusa]

They hunt here. You got to be careful driving at night, deer jump out in front of your car. Thousands of Canada Geese flocking all over the place(they must be native now).

[Sam The Eagle]

I have a simple theory about Kerry's slippage in what should be safe blue states for him, even while he continues to poll fairly even with Bush in battleground states:

He's doing opkay in the battleground states because that's where he's spending all his time and ad money. Meanwhile, his base was never crazy about him to begin with, and he's not at all a charismatic figure, so it's hard for him to maintain his appeal in a state like Conn. or Hawaii that isn't getting his message crammed down its collective throat on the airwaves or news coverage of local rallies every day. Out of sight, out of mind.

Basically, Kerry has put so many of his eggs in the basket of a few swing states, that he's losing his base.

[dancusa]

Also lots of wild turkey. Yes they do fly!

[dixiechick2000]

"Is MS looking tight?"



LOL! Ain't nuthin' tight about Mississippi. ;o)

Regarding the landslide...from your keyboard to
The Lord's ears.

Welcome to Free Republic. ;o)