[Sam The Eagle]

I have a simple theory about Kerry's slippage in what should be safe blue states for him, even while he continues to poll fairly even with Bush in battleground states:

He's doing opkay in the battleground states because that's where he's spending all his time and ad money. Meanwhile, his base was never crazy about him to begin with, and he's not at all a charismatic figure, so it's hard for him to maintain his appeal in a state like Conn. or Hawaii that isn't getting his message crammed down its collective throat on the airwaves or news coverage of local rallies every day. Out of sight, out of mind.

Basically, Kerry has put so many of his eggs in the basket of a few swing states, that he's losing his base.

[Keith]

and meanwhile, the pubbie ground game is eating him in his "safe" states...

Our GOTV must be awesome...

[over3Owithabrain]

He's doing opkay in the battleground states because that's where he's spending all his time and ad money. Meanwhile, his base was never crazy about him to begin with, and he's not at all a charismatic figure, so it's hard for him to maintain his appeal in a state like Conn. or Hawaii that isn't getting his message crammed down its collective throat on the airwaves or news coverage of local rallies every day. Out of sight, out of mind. Basically, Kerry has put so many of his eggs in the basket of a few swing states, that he's losing his base.

I agree with your take; however, I think this is the only chance Kerry has - to cherry pick states that he can steal from Bush and hope to hold on in the blue states, albeit with dwindling support. Kerry has to assume those blues will stay blue without his attention. He really cannot worry about losing them, since he would have no chance anyway. A desperate strategy but it's all he's got.