Posted on 10/22/2004 12:40:47 PM PDT by expat_panama
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MALCOLM MORRISON
TORONTO (CP) - Crude oil that rose well past the $55 US a barrel level pressured stock markets Friday as investors also dealt with a string of tepid earnings reports. The price of crude oil for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange moved up 98 cents to a fresh high of $55.45 US a barrel on supply concerns - particularly heating oil inventories amid forecasts of a colder than usual winter in the U.S. Northeast. Investors also found fault with many of the latest batch of earnings reports from the United States. "We've been essentially range-bound," said Patricia Croft, chief economist and vice-president at Phillips, Hager and North. "We get to the top of the range and people get a little bit frightened and then on we go but the uncertainties that were with us at the start of the year haven't really been resolved in terms of oil and economic outlook and the Fed and politics and those issues have still plagued the markets."
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Well, I guess it's possible. You are correct, that the market could cost Bush the election. If the S&P dips under 1000, I think Bush is finished.
Of course he worries. You'd worry too if you were living in a tiny cave and your dialysis machine was hooked up to the battery of a '56 Chevy.
Wanna bet?
Should have done this 10 years ago. It takes about 7 years to bring refined fuel to the market. Everyone thinks el-presto-zappo, ya just turn on the spiggot and fill up the car. Doesn't work that way.
Absolutely! The neural net computer at http://www.stock100.com/ has proven that it will, but then it's going to dip again. It's so nice to have info on future stock prices. |
Probably based on the lower lows followed by lower highs theory.
Maybe Kerry has a secret plan to fix things.
You have to start sometime. Think what it may be like in 7 years if we don't start now?
Why did $51, $52, $53, and $54 not have about the same effect?
I agree, it's definately a Soros move.
Well-funded manipulators can start or stop a big move, via well-timed futures transactions, but no one can afford to fund a sustained move (with the possible exception of the US Treasury).
The fact is, the four-year market cycle is starting to roll over, and the 18 month cyclical bull market is coming to an end. That's just the way it is, and there is no good answer to the question "why?".
Send the Oil up, Crash the markets right before election..
Is there any proof to this? Liek I keep seeing this type of talk all over FR but no one has provided any proof that it is true.
Does anybody have some good evidence on this?
Bet on what? That the S&P will be under 1000 before Nov 2? Or that being under 1000, Bush will lose?
The nature of this bear market was obscured by the enormous increase in credit and money supply just prior to y2k. These dollars seemed to go into the then hot Internet stocks until 2000. Then we had a crash of monumental proportions in the alleged "bubble." This resulted in a sharp, 6 trillion dollar loss in the stock market.
Greenspan et al then pumped up the money supply and pushed short term interest rates into almost all time low levels. With the Bush Tax Cut and huge increases in the equity of homeowners due to the low interest and mortgage rates, the bear market has been further obscured.
But the kicker in all of this is that the depreciation of the dollar (inflation) has added to this hidden bear market until recently when it began to drop in earnest.
Presently, there are many short term challenges for investors, but IMHO anticipate another five or more years of general stock market decline when one corrects for inflation. A good way to measure this decline is the gold/DJ ratio; however, right now this post is too long.
Both.
Bush is finished? Say what? You think folks who are po'ed at the price of oil are gonna turn around and vote for a guy who was AGAINST the first Gulf War. AGAINST drilling in ANWAR. Is FOR raising federal gas taxes? LOL. I don't think so :)
Oh boy is this great!
There are lots of positives about high oil prices. It shows our rediculous dependence, it shows the two facedness of liberals as they are in bed with blue collar car makers and earth firsters. The winner, the one with the most money, the car makers. I suspect that most SUV owners could car less about 2 dollar a gallon gas. Maybe at 4 bucks you could get their attention.
I was talking about the stock market. Having never looked at cycles in the petro markets, not sure what form they take. I agree that even if all speculation was taken out of the oil market there are still fundamental reasons for the price to be high.
Actually I wasnt arguing high oil prices will kill Bushs re-election. But just that its the economy stupid (not my words). If oil prices cause the markets to tank prior to Nov 2, the average not so wise voter will blame Bush and vote for Kerry.
Of course Kerry is a dumb vote. He, like Gore, would tap into the war reserves on a whim. Not only that, instead of opening up ANWAR and other reserves, would tell everyone to buy Hybrids.
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