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I think those who want Bush to win are going to fight in the futures markets tooth and nail to keep the S&P from collapsing. I think they have a decent chance. I wouldn’t bet against them. So I’d say there is a 75% probability that the markets don’t break down.

As far as the markets causing Bush the election, I’d say a combination of the S&P under 1000, the Nasdaq under 1900, and the DOW in the 9000s will cost Bush the election. 100%. I could be totally wrong and will have to eat my words. For America’s sake I hope it doesn’t happen.

After the election. If it comes down to a few hundred votes, and ends up in the courts, the markets will lose big time. If Kerry wins, the markets will lose. They don’t want a man who will not defend America. If Bush wins, the markets will win short and medium term. Long term, they are not in his control.