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To: expat_panama
There are always some stocks up and some down regardless of the general trend of the stock market. IMHO we are in a secular bear market and have been so since 1998 or thereabouts.

The nature of this bear market was obscured by the enormous increase in credit and money supply just prior to y2k. These dollars seemed to go into the then hot Internet stocks until 2000. Then we had a crash of monumental proportions in the alleged "bubble." This resulted in a sharp, 6 trillion dollar loss in the stock market.

Greenspan et al then pumped up the money supply and pushed short term interest rates into almost all time low levels. With the Bush Tax Cut and huge increases in the equity of homeowners due to the low interest and mortgage rates, the bear market has been further obscured.

But the kicker in all of this is that the depreciation of the dollar (inflation) has added to this hidden bear market until recently when it began to drop in earnest.

Presently, there are many short term challenges for investors, but IMHO anticipate another five or more years of general stock market decline when one corrects for inflation. A good way to measure this decline is the gold/DJ ratio; however, right now this post is too long.

31 posted on 10/22/2004 1:52:42 PM PDT by shrinkermd
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To: shrinkermd
I’m probably one of the few that would agree with you. The 2000 crash didn’t do enough to work out excesses in the valuations. We certaintly can’t blame Bush for the bubble or its consequences. Unfortunately the public is not well educated and it blames the current administration for its woes. And wrongly believe the stock market IS the economy.

The theory is that as the dollar weakens the US will experience inflation as foreign goods will no longer be competitive. Has anyone seen the effects of that yet, or is it too soon?
35 posted on 10/22/2004 2:14:43 PM PDT by Lord Nelson
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