Newsweek: Too Close to Call (But it's 50-44 likely voters)!

Newsweek ^ | 10-16-04 | Newsweek

[handy]

Results based on likely voters (as opposed to all registered voters) give Bush the edge, with Bush-Cheney pulling 50 percent of the vote and Kerry-Edwards drawing 44 percent in a three-way race (Nader still gets 1 percent).

[Intolerant in NJ]

Newsweek: Too Close to Call (But it's 50-44 likely voters)!...only a flesh wound.....

[handy]

[TonyInOhio]

"Dem builds solid and insurmountable lead, GOP in disarray"

A reporterette on CNN was saying something quite like that just this morning.

Who needs a headline? :)

[No Blue States]

lol! Funny pic.

Deadheat..thats why Bush and Kerry are both campaigning in BLUE states.ummhummm.

[stockpirate]

I would bet if it were 60/40 the headline would still remain the same.

[KrazyEyezKillah]

Kerry is toast. It was so fun casting my vote for W. today and knowing its a lock.

[No Blue States]

I envy you for having voted, we must wait till monday here.

[NewMediaFan]

I still wish Bush had that 11-point lead.

Likely Spinweek Headline:

Resilient Kerry Remains Competitive Despite Vicious Attacks from Bush

 

[stop_fascism]

Of course if the results were reversed the headline would read, "Kerry's lead becomes close to insurmountable."

[counterpunch]

I'm surprised Newsweek didn't run this headline instead:
Kerry Holds Massive 43 Point Lead Over Nader

[Gamecock]

But one must admit it is hugh...

[Owen]

Read earlier in the thread. Party affiliation breakdown appears to be sentiment based, not registration based, because many states don't have party registration at all.

[Owen]

Ooops, the party breakdown discussion is in the other newsweek thread, not this one.

[Fruitbat]

Funny, it's usually not too close to call when Kerry is up by 1.

LMAO...

Don'cha know it! Hell, he can be down by two or three and he's gonna win it. Naturally the distribution of those polled reflecting electoral votes don't have anything to do with it either or the fact that most states that W owns are solidly w while hardly any of the ones that F'n owns are solidly F'n.

It's a real gas!

[stockpirate]

I bet they thought about it.

So, the mid week polls had Bush with 49 and now he is at 50.....mmmmm

I think we might be seeing a pattern.

I am looking for it to finish at about 58-40, but the dimwitocrats will say it was close.

[vpintheak]

I guess they must be devastated

[Fruitbat]

Yeah, and I'm sure the same attorney will take up that suit against iN DEMAND as will file one against Sinclair!

[MNJohnnie]

Read earlier in the thread. Party affiliation breakdown appears to be sentiment based, not registration based, because many states don't have party registration at all.

I guess I will wait and see what the internals are. I would be careful about repeating anything posted as a comment as factual. The poster is making a mistake. The Party Identification is based on what the Respondent TELLS the pollster. I take part in Zogby's weekly interactive survey where they test how on line results correspond to their telephone surveys. One of the 1st questions is which party are you registered. They then WEIGHT the poll based on past turn out. Because the Democrats have more registered voters nationwide, self-identified Democrats tend to get a large % of responses recorded in the polls. For Example, one poll gave the breakdown as 39% Democrats, 35% Republicans 21% Independents. One of the reason to be cautious with "News Media" polls is they game the numbers. In Sept when they wanted a Bush lead so they oversampled Republicans. When they wanted to show a tight race, they over sample Democrats. Like most scientific measurements, polls are mainly a reflection of the assumptions the pollster makes before measuring.

The point I am making, is the internal numbers on the poll all give Kerry HIGHER numbers on the ISSUES but give Bush the lead overall. That would suggest that Kerry is losing some from his base because these people are saying that while they agree more with Kerry on most issues, they are picking Bush for Pres.