China sends more troops to N. Korea border(10K elite troops)

Straits Times ^ | 10/15/04 | N/A

[TigerLikesRooster]

China sends more troops to N. Korea border

WASHINGTON - China has dispatched thousands of additional soldiers to its border region with North Korea, prompting an alert among intelligence officials in South Korea and the United States, says a diplomatic source here.

'Based on the US satellite photos and South Korea's human intelligence, the two countries concluded that China has recently deployed 10,000 elite troops to the North Korean border,' the source in Washington was quoted by South Korea's JoongAng Ilbo as saying yesterday.

Last Saturday, Japan's Sankei Shimbun newspaper also reported that China had sent 10,000 troops earlier this month to three border areas along the Tumen River, running between China and North Korea.

The Washington source said: 'China already has two divisions of troops guarding the border. Seoul and Washington are now analysing why China had to send another division of its best-trained troops to the area.'

China reportedly already has some 150,000 People's Liberation Army (PLA) troops stationed along its 1,400km border with North Korea, with which it signed a Border Cooperation Agreement in June.

In response, Beijing confirmed on Tuesday that it had deployed troops to the border, but denied media speculation that the move was aimed at stopping North Koreans from defecting or in protest against Pyongyang's continuing nuclear arms development.

In a related development, two North Korean refugees, including the wife of an economic official, were to fly to the US yesterday to seek political asylum, South Korea's Yonhap news agency said.

Ms Chang Sun Young, the wife of a senior state-run trading company official, and Mr Chung Sung Il, are to arrive in the US via Japan and Germany, Yonhap said.

Ms Chang has information regarding the family tree of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, it said.

The two would be the first North Koreans to apply for political asylum in the US after the US Senate approved a Bill last month pressuring North Korea to improve its human rights conditions.

[NJ_gent]

"?......10,000......nothing here,... move on till.......1,000,000"

150,000 with armor plus 10,000 elite forces is pretty significant. A million troops aren't needed to rush across a largely undefended border. In fact, a troop buildup that large would tip off North Korea to start defending the border, and would be a logistical nightmare. Why not send 100 million troops? They won't need a whole lot if they decide to take Pyongyang.

[NJ_gent]

"Is it possible that China would invade N. Korea? Is there anything of value near where all the troops are?"

Yes. China taking North Korea would allow it to showcase its military power, would strengthen its position with Taiwan, would get American troops off the Korean penninsula and away from China's doorstep, would cause other nations in the region to gravitate towards China as a regional leader/protector, and would remove multiple potential nuclear threats from its doorstep.

[Q6-God]

In the moutains 150K really isn't that much. You would need alot just of service and support troops for an endevour like that.

Plus, Winter is coming along now. Why would you want to start something in the winter ?

The only Army that would want or need to fight in the winter is NK. Nov and April are the key times for them to move South. Maybe the CHICOMS are just saying no with a little bit a backing.

[NJ_gent]

"Don't let them fool you,, China, and North Korea's boss are chum chum buddys."

Not true at all. North Korea is China's local area junkyard dog. It distracts US and other regional military assets from Taiwan, which is good for China. That's why China throws a bone to North Korea every so often in the form of political defense or humanitarian/military aid. That being said, China understands perfectly that, like all junkyard dogs, North Korea could turn around and bite the hand that feeds it at any time. With conventional forces, North Korea's military would be obliterated trying to invade China. With nuclear weapons, however, Beijing is under threat of vaporization. It's in China's interests to remove North Korea's nuclear weapon threat one way or another.

[rudypoot]

Let's HOPE GEORGE BUSH WINS IN A LANDSIDE by a LARGE MARGIN, because, the Chinese, and North Korea will take advantage of our weakness, and ciaos in our country during this election.

The US had a show of strength this summer by conducting war games with 7 carrier groups in the pacific. A first for the US with so many carriers. We can still project military power.

[NJ_gent]

A goodwill visit? That sounds more like a cover for talks with China about how to avoid a military conflict. China has no problem engaging in bi-lateral talks with North Korea if it serves the interests of China. My guess would be that these meetings are essentially made up of someone from North Korea pleading with someone from China not to attack, and someone from China demanding they give up their nuclear weapons program. It looks to me as though China's dropping into some shotgun diplomacy.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Re #43

Chinese are good at fighting in a frigid weather, too. Manchuria is a frigid place, more like Minnesota or Dakotas. Besides, in the winter, rivers are frozen. They won't need complicated river-crossing operation. They could roll over thick ice in tracked vehicles and trucks.

However, I am not necessarily saying that they are about to invade N. Korea this winter. They may or may not. We don't know. I believe that they try to be ready for all contingencies, though.

[NJ_gent]

"Could you see the chinese supporting a military coup inside North Korea?"

Absolutely not. The last thing China wants is confusion and chaos in its nuclear-armed neighbor. China wants those nuclear weapons dismantled in a controlled-as-possible manner. Anything less than that risks seeing Beijing reduced to rubble.

"If China moved troops into N. Korea do you think they would leave or do you think they would make a land grab?"

China would keep troops there for a while as peacekeepers, but they would continue to respect the sanctity of the borders. To do otherwise would undo all the political benefits that come from taking North Korea while giving China little more than a hunk of worthless land filled with starving people. I wouldn't be altogether surprised if they gave control of North Korea to the South Korean government and declared the peninsula a united Korea. That would thrill people in South Korea and Japan (in North Korea as well, but they don't really count), and it would all but guarantee the total removal of US forces from South Korea.

[mad_as_he$$]

All your borders are belonging to us.

[Steel Wolf]

In fact, a troop buildup that large would tip off North Korea to start defending the border, and would be a logistical nightmare. ... They won't need a whole lot if they decide to take Pyongyang.

Large buildup or small, North Korea doesn't have the resources to defend their western border and the DMZ. The troops in place on the west are mostly to stop people from leaving. Were the Chinese so inclined, they could push through the border and make it deep into North Korea before running into any significant resistance. If they are able to convince a few key commanders not to oppose them, they could make it close to Pyongyang in short order.

There are a number of reasons why this might be desirable for both sides. Most likely would be the imminent collapse of the government. The leadership of the DPRK could flee to China, and the PRC wouldn't have to risk Korea being unified by the ROK/USFK military.

[Porterville]

Good target practice..... especially for our new weapon systems.

[Steel Wolf]

That would thrill people in South Korea and Japan (in North Korea as well, but they don't really count), and it would all but guarantee the total removal of US forces from South Korea.

If China siezes North Korea, they'll almost certainly tie their withdrawl and troop redeployments to ours. That way Korea can reunite in a measured way and free itself from foriegn influence. Political pressure in South Korea to take the peaceful reunification deal will overwhelmingly force us out.

[snowsislander]

Yes. China taking North Korea would allow it to showcase its military power, would strengthen its position with Taiwan, would get American troops off the Korean penninsula and away from China's doorstep, would cause other nations in the region to gravitate towards China as a regional leader/protector, and would remove multiple potential nuclear threats from its doorstep.

Indeed, from our viewpoint, it is a very logical course. But I don't see any evidence for it except for the troop movements, and the ostensible 3-day stoppage of oil.

Instead, Kim is freely visiting Beijing; materials still go in; and China has possibly let North Korea transship interesting materials via rail to Pakistan:

Since the beginning of this year, there has been a large-scale movement of military goods under military escort to Pakistan from China along the Karakoram Highway. While most of these containers were said to contain spare parts and replacements for the Chinese arms and ammunition and aircraft in Pakistan's arsenal, one should not rule out the possibility that the Chinese might have accepted the Pakistani request for the movement of the missile-related goods from North Korea by train and road across China and then along the Karakoram Highway.

Source: Asia Times, October 22, 2002

I just don't see the political signs that I would associate with a coup de main. This is not to discount a Barbarossa, but I don't think that has been the Chicom's style.

[NJ_gent]

"In the moutains 150K really isn't that much. You would need alot just of service and support troops for an endevour like that."

This is true, but you have to remember that virtually every part of North Korea's military is concentrated on the defense of the DMZ against US and South Korean invasion. They've built up that border's defenses for the past 50 years, sinking every dime they had into it. They never really planned for a Chinese invasion, and they don't really have the money to make preparations quickly at this point. China's military would have no problems at all until they hit Pyongyang, at which point they might have to work a little bit. The thing of it is, I don't think they'll have to fight anyone else once they take Pyongyang. With the former regime deposed, the North Korea military will likely stand down. Therefore, I think that China's likely preparing for a lightning rush to Pyongyang to end things quickly and quietly.

"Why would you want to start something in the winter ?"

Because China has the money to fight a Winter war, while North Korea would find itself largely paralyzed. China's military strength may be diminished by the Winter weather, but North Korea would likely be almost entirely unable to respond militarily.

"The only Army that would want or need to fight in the winter is NK."

Only if that fight occurs at the DMZ, where they're already set up and ready to fight. As difficult as it would normally be for North Korea to shift military positions, it's all but impossible for them to do in the Winter. That makes it the perfect time for a lightning strike by China's military to take Pyongyang in a matter of days.

[Steel Wolf]

However, I am not necessarily saying that they are about to invade N. Korea this winter.

'Invasion' might be an overstatement. Even some kind of backdoor agreement to move in 'peacekeepers' might be preferrable now, while the U.S. is otherwise distracted and the DPRK government is ostensibly still stable. Kim Jong Il may suspect that his regime's days are numbered, and may be looking for a way out that allows him to keep his neck.

If North Korea collapses violently, then world opinion may force China to give Kim up if he flees there. If they can work out a reasonably peaceful transfer of power, there may be a nice Chinese retirement dacha with Kim's name on it.

[NJ_gent]

"We can still project military power."

We can jump up and down, yell and scream, and wave a big stick, but to our friends in the region, it appears as though we're completely incapable of solving a real problem, like a nuclear threat from a psychotic dictator.

[snowsislander]

A goodwill visit? That sounds more like a cover for talks with China about how to avoid a military conflict. China has no problem engaging in bi-lateral talks with North Korea if it serves the interests of China. My guess would be that these meetings are essentially made up of someone from North Korea pleading with someone from China not to attack, and someone from China demanding they give up their nuclear weapons program. It looks to me as though China's dropping into some shotgun diplomacy.

I have considered that Pyongyang or at least some faction is trying to mediate a way from an impasse. But I only would place more weight on that position if I thought that I saw other signs of bad relations between the "teeth and lips."

However, I am by no means an expert on either Korea or China, and perhaps indeed we will see swift action from China to displace the Kim regime. We live in interesting times.

[beyond the sea]

bless you......................ditties here

[NJ_gent]

"Large buildup or small, North Korea doesn't have the resources to defend their western border and the DMZ."

If the North Koreans felt an imminent threat from China (such as they would if they saw a massive troop buildup), they could very well start recalling troops and equipment back from the DMZ. They know the US is in no shape to launch an invasion against such a heavily defended border, and the know that the South Koreans wouldn't allow it anyway. The South Koreans understand all too well that war with the US means that Seoul will be obliterated by artillery and missiles from North Korea, which means that they'll hold back the US unless they have no other choice. North Korea could probably divert up to 90% of its military forces to the defense of Pyongyang, making the whole thing a major pain in the rear for China, who would then have to bring a bunch more troops and equipment in. I can certainly see China simply lining up a ton of artillery and just shelling the hell out of Pyongyang and all the troops defending it, so it's still a losing strategy for North Korea in the end.

"The leadership of the DPRK could flee to China"

That's an interesting possibility, but one has to consider whether Kim Jong-il's ego will allow him to give up all the power he has right now and flee like a coward. That's sort of like asking a track star who's breaking world records to retire. If they could get Kim Jong-il to agree, it would still look good for China, though not as good as a military invasion, and would have the same benefits of removing the nuclear threat while getting rid of the US forces on its doorstep.

[Steel Wolf]

Just because I know deep down you guys feel sorry for Kim Jong Il, listen to him here singing about how he's so lonely.