Posted on 10/12/2004 10:19:05 AM PDT by MarlboroRed
Bush will win Ohio. Why this is even still being debated is insanity.
I think Bush will win OH, too, but there's a somewhat plausible scenario that has him winning 273 electoral votes even without it. It's a bit reassuring.
The Ohio state polls at realclearpolitics.com looked pretty dicey last time I checked.
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Anybody else envision a scenario, where Bush loses national popular vote again, and wins the EC tally?
I do.
What happens after that will be a nightmare.
I think he will...
Don't forget that in states like NJ and even NY Kerry's margin is smaller than Gore's was...
"I think Bush will win OH, too, but there's a somewhat plausible scenario that has him winning 273 electoral votes even without it. It's a bit reassuring."
Another way of looking at all of this is that Bush only has to win 1 of OH, PA or FL. As long as Bush wins 1 of these states, there are reasonable scenarios involving IA, ME, NH, NM, NV and WI that allow Bush to still reach 270.
For example, let's say Bush loses FL and NH. Bush would be at 247 (278 - 31). Add in IA, NM and WI (22 total), he goes to 269. Add in 1 from ME and he reaches 270 which protects him from WV elector possibly not voting for him.
On the other hand, Kerry must win 2 of OH, PA or FL to win the election.
By the way, both OH and FL currently look to be with Bush, so Bush continues to be in good condition at this time. Bottom line is you'd rather be holding Bush's cards.
I like your chart. Seems perfectly clear, huh. I do think Bush will when Florida simply because of Jebs surprize landslide in 2002(%13). Democrats put everything they had in that race and lost big. Plus Jeb is very popular down hear with the conservative democrats and there are a lot of them.
bmp
Not to mention Massachusetts, where Kerry's margin (+14) is half what Gore's was (+28).
If these idiots riot in the street, they should be arrested or shot. If they protest against the electorial college, or the results from a clean election, they are positioning themselves as enemies of the Constitution. Our form of government is a republic, not a direct democracy. Most of the people who don't understand this are victims of history and government teachers who focused on how mean our founding forefathers were instead of informing them about the tenants of a REPRESENTATIVE democracy.
A great deal of the thought behind our constitution was in avoiding the problem of MOB rule. Just because most people want it, doesen't mean its right or ok. The Senate is a perfect example of this as well as the Bill of Rights. We do not live by mob rules for good reason.
Don't get your hopes up about the blue states leaving the union. They still want your money, just not your ideology.
Can someone speak to the scenario where one of the WV Electors, a Republican Mayor, has said he will vote for Kerry on the first ballot if W wins? How does this affect the WV vote? Can one Elector ignore the state vote? Are there any safegards or penalties if he does this?
They're about as likely to secede as a seed tick is likely to get off a dog. They'll whine and scream, but they want Uncle Sugar's money, and they want to tell the rest of us what to do. For the children.
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