If the polls are to be believed, we have an almost tied race. Yet time after time, we are seeing groups that went for Gore last time, either very weak for Kerry, or leaning towards Bush.
We have seen, Catholics, Women, Blacks (still very strong for Kerry, but not as enthusiastic as for Gore), Hispanics, Jews, Youth, etc.
The only polls I have seen that Kerry has improved on is the Muslims. It would be very interesting to get some of these figures in a chart and compare them to 2000. If Bush is truly improving in these demographics, without losing any of his base, this election should be a blowout.
Dales, I am pinging you because you have all of the figures at your fingertips, have you looked into this at all?
The support for Nader is well down, and I have seen evidence that the left that occasionally or usually sits out or votes 3rd party is with the Democrats. Combine them with the Muslim vote, and it does not surprise me to see a net wash.