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MUST READ Demographics Election Analysis (W looks good)
http://polipundit.com/wp-comments-popup.php?p=4448&c=1 ^ | http://polipundit.com

Posted on 10/10/2004 7:48:52 PM PDT by soccer4life

I would post the whole article but not sure if that's allowed due to copyright laws.

Just click on the link. WELL WORTH YOUR TIME. Guaranteed!


TOPICS: Extended News; Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
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1 posted on 10/10/2004 7:48:52 PM PDT by soccer4life
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To: soccer4life

Thanks for posting this


2 posted on 10/10/2004 7:54:12 PM PDT by MJY1288 (KERRY SAYS WE MUST PASS A GLOBAL TEST IN ORDER TO DEFEND OURSELVES)
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To: soccer4life

Now those are facts you'll NEVER get from the "elitist media".


3 posted on 10/10/2004 7:54:15 PM PDT by TheEnigma47 (kerry will NEVER deserve forgiveness for his treachery to America's Military)
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To: soccer4life
.In 1980, Ronald Reagan won the White House with just 86% of the Republican Vote. In 2000, Bush took 92% of the Republican Vote. In August, Bush had 88.4% of the Republican Vote. he now runs at 91.9%.

Few rememeber that John Anderson, defeated by Reagan in the primaries, ran as an independent and siphoned off some Reagan votes. Hence the likely reason for the 86% number for Reagan in 1980.

4 posted on 10/10/2004 7:56:18 PM PDT by Agamemnon
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To: soccer4life

Great facts!! this one everyone should read. I will go to bed tonight feeling joy in my heart!
four more years!
four more years
four more years!


5 posted on 10/10/2004 7:58:44 PM PDT by suzyq5558 (proud member of the pajamahadeen for Bush! (jammies for truth!))
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To: Agamemnon

Let not forget Ross Perot in 92. Parley


6 posted on 10/10/2004 7:58:49 PM PDT by Parley Baer
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self-ping


7 posted on 10/10/2004 8:00:24 PM PDT by clintonh8r (Vietnam veteran against "global testing.")
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To: soccer4life

there was a statistic that came out while back that said in the counties that Bush won last election against Gore, the murder rate was x10s less on the average. Not one demographic anybody should be proud of taking the lead on, but the democrats perhaps will pander to whom ever they can get....


8 posted on 10/10/2004 8:01:03 PM PDT by seastay
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To: soccer4life

ping


9 posted on 10/10/2004 8:05:39 PM PDT by madison46 (Give IRAN nuke fuel?? Your nutz)
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To: soccer4life
In 2000, George W. Bush won the White House with just 9% of the Black vote. Kerry had 84% and Bush 12% of the Black vote in August. now, it’s 82% Kerry, 14% Bush, which is very good for Dubya

I'm certainly no expert, but somebody said a couple years ago that if W were able to win an extra 5% of the Black vote, it would devastate his Democratic challenger. 9% + 5% = 14%! (Goosebumps!)

10 posted on 10/10/2004 8:09:00 PM PDT by silent_jonny ("Kicking Ass & Taking Hyphenated Names!")
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To: Parley Baer

Actually I'd rather forget that drooling idiot Perot, but I get your point. Even though these stats are obviously what I wanna hear, I can't help being cheered up by them. I only have one vote and it's for Bush. The alternative flat out terrifies me. Way to go Bush/Cheney. Thanks for the uplifting posting.


11 posted on 10/10/2004 8:10:25 PM PDT by Calusa (One Nation Gone Under.)
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To: soccer4life

This report did not say who dead voters are leaning towards.

Regardless of any good news for Dubya, please continue to work hard, folks, to get this man re-elected.


12 posted on 10/10/2004 8:13:28 PM PDT by bear11 (If Kerry wins, America loses)
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To: Calusa
Did somebody call my name? My ears are burnin'!


13 posted on 10/10/2004 8:13:47 PM PDT by silent_jonny ("Kicking Ass & Taking Hyphenated Names!")
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To: bear11
Regardless of any good news for Dubya, please continue to work hard, folks, to get this man re-elected.

Agreed. We can't rest. (Hey, bear.)

14 posted on 10/10/2004 8:16:34 PM PDT by silent_jonny ("Kicking Ass & Taking Hyphenated Names!")
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To: soccer4life

None of the statistical comparisons from August to today work to prove this essay's hypothesis. They are all within the marginal error, which means that Dubya could have undergone no changes in the real world and normal statistical variation could have produced all these numbers.

Most people who consume polls fail to understand just how important the margin of error is. The margin of error for these August-Present numbers is such that we cannot draw any valid causal inferences. See the following for a more detailed argument:

http://jaycost.blogspot.com/2004/10/perfect-example-of-popular.html

I want Dubya to win as much as anybody, but this is just wishful thinking.


15 posted on 10/10/2004 8:23:23 PM PDT by jaycost (Jay Cost's Horserace Blog (http://jaycost.blogspot.com))
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To: soccer4life

Interesting. Bush is doing better than 2000 in every category except the white vote. There he's down by 1%. I don't know if that's statistically significant, but I've noticed that there's a lot of elite rich people for kerry. He gets the suburban vote and the vote of soccer moms who aren't yet persuaded that their kids are in danger.


16 posted on 10/10/2004 8:25:29 PM PDT by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: silent_jonny
I'm certainly no expert, but somebody said a couple years ago that if W were able to win an extra 5% of the Black vote, it would devastate his Democratic challenger

This is why Kerry is sitting in a pulpit with Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton. Expect the numbers to go up to 15% by the end of the week.

17 posted on 10/10/2004 8:28:09 PM PDT by garbanzo (Free people will set the course of history)
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To: garbanzo

LOL--I'm hoping and praying.


18 posted on 10/10/2004 8:40:07 PM PDT by silent_jonny ("Kicking Ass & Taking Hyphenated Names!")
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To: Cicero

I know a lot of these people...they are former hippies who have brought their tie-dye clothes out of storage because they think their kids will get sent to Iraq...


19 posted on 10/10/2004 9:28:55 PM PDT by Keith (JOHN KERRY...IN VIOLATION OF ARTICLE III SECTION 3 OF THE US CONSTITUTION)
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To: Parley Baer

>>Let not forget Ross Perot in 92. Parley

I have become CONVINCED Perot did that to insure Clinton's victory. And Perot ran in both 92 and 96... He never ran for political office before or after Clinton's presidential runs.

I think Wes Clark was scheduled to be the Perot-like spoiler if Shrillary had chosen to get involved this year.


20 posted on 10/10/2004 9:33:32 PM PDT by Future Useless Eater (FreedomLoving_Engineer)
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