Posted on 10/09/2004 7:32:34 AM PDT by MarlboroRed
There's no point in doing a little political punditry in the October of an election year without going way out on a limb, so here goes: As I smelled it, the most important thing that happened in the second presidential debate is that George W. Bush lost a good chunk of the women's vote.
He's been ahead, you know, among large blocs of women. If you take away black women, who appear to vote more based on their race than their sex (and thus vote heavily Democratic), Bush leads John Kerry among women. The media have made great hoo-ha lately about this fact, noting and arguing that Bush was gaining steadily and building a solid lead among the "security moms" because of his successful attacks (read: fear-mongering lies) on Kerry's ability to fight terrorism.
I'm guessing that Friday night, that trend started shifting into reverse. It wasn't any single thing Bush said. It was the manner: the schoolyard swagger, the left arm cocked like an itchy gunslinger's, the arrogant sneer, the roosterish strutting -- and the voice. God, that voice. You don't quite call that screaming. It wasn't exactly caterwauling. Maybe yowling. Whatever it was, he sounded like a tedious and noisome braggart in the parking lot after a football game. Having seen plenty of those, and having been that myself from time to time, experience teaches me to take the view that most women do not find that figure appealing.
They might have, if Kerry had come across, to extend the metaphor, as the inadequate sad sack portrayed in Bush's television commercials. But he didn't. Kerry was terrific. Far better, by my lights, than he was in the first debate. I know no one else will see it that way, because he was the first debate's obvious winner, while he merely edged out round two on points after Bush didn't show up in where-am-I-again? mode. But Kerry was, if anything, stronger -- more succinct and direct, more challenging to Bush, and tougher -- than he had been in the first debate. And he especially showed all those qualities when he was talking foreign policy. I'm betting the security moms noticed.
Of course, I'm guessing, and I have no actual idea whether I'm right. Certainly, this isn't the kind of angle that will have been discussed on the cable post-game shows. The few women permitted into the club are busy proving that they can be one of the guys (Andrea Mitchell) or that they can be just as sycophantic toward Bush as the big boys (Candy Crowley); they know that's the only way they can stay on television, so they sure aren't there to represent their sex.
It's very much worth remembering, in fact, how aggressively male a domain cable television is. The worst moment, when Bush just clearly behaved like a rude jerk, came at 9:36 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, when Charlie Gibson was trying to ask him a follow-up and Bush brusquely waved him off, interrupted, and charged forward and started yelping about Tony Blair. It was witnessing this moment that made me start to think about women viewers. But Chris Matthews, naturally, thought it was great. Which makes me think I'm on to something.
Polls won't deal with this question for a few days, and if they prove me wrong, they prove me wrong. But as hunches go, this strikes me as one worth playing.
Michael Tomasky is executive editor of The American Prospect.
Bush did OK with women in the first debate. I don't think this will hurt him.
I far prefer swagger to mincing which is what Kerry does. Everything about Bush shouts male so loudly I sometimes have trouble concentrating on what he's saying.
"Of course, I'm guessing, and I have no actual idea whether I'm right."
Well Buddy, you can stop guessing because you are absolutely and actually WRONG. W is for women and vice versa. Kerry IS a woman.
Far I need to read.........more rat BS.
Not just probably a liberal, he IS a liberal, BIG TIME, always has been.
Michael Tomasky is a sweaty, snide, arrogant girlie-man just like his master, Jean François Kerrý.
Forget the dumb democrat women.
Hispanics like macho.
LOOK here:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1240183/posts
Bush didn't lose this woman. I thought he was the Bush I like last night. He was on the attack, and that is what I like. He also can joke about things, and I like that.
Kerry seems like a professor, and I have never been attracted to that type of guy.
Funny---or perhaps not---but I have several young ROTC women in my classes, and many will be in Iraq before long. This year, for the first time, I'm going to hold a party only for ROTC seniors at Christmas, as a way of thanking them for the service they are about to perform.
It wasn't any single thing Bush said. It was the manner: the schoolyard swagger, the left arm cocked like an itchy gunslinger's, the arrogant sneer,
And, that's a bad thing!!??? I'm a woman and I can't wait to vote for the "gunslinger" in Nov.!!!
YEE HAW!
God bless all women serving in Iraq, but women should be the reason men go to war, not the warriors.
I agree with you, but, unfortunately, we ain't gonna roll back the clock on this one.
I don't know if it has been mentioned on this thread yet, but in Texas we call that . . .
.
"Walking"
Maybe not, but maybe. Times change.
Thanks, I am glad. Do not keep up with all the knowledge lately in this area. Spend most of my time here on computer, and taking care of 86 year old mom. No complaints though, just fact, glad to be able to do so.
I don't know Michael Tomasky from Adam, and I don't know why I should care what he thinks. He sounds like a metrosexual loser to me.
Don't tell me - I was quoting and responding to someone else, hence the "quotes"!
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