Posted on 10/03/2004 3:07:34 PM PDT by West Coast Conservative
Just announced on CNN.
Just my $0.02...
At this stage in the game (and the obvious BS Kerry was putting out in the debate), all of these polls are meant to do only 2 things.
1. Give the media something to talk about. A landslide would be boring for the media.
2. Give the manipulators in the media to push poll their opinion on the not-so-well informed.
Yeah, I don't have a subscription so hopefully someone will break down furthr internals than what we have.
But as I understand it he still leads WOT, Iraq, trustworthy and honest which is what the election revolves around in a poll that askd where people were LEANING? Hmm..
You nailed it, thats why I never got to excited about the Gallup polls, they had too many Repbulicans in the last couple polls. I am not huge on Rasmmussen as a whole, but because they have seemed the most consistant on their polling sample, their treands and the state trends, IMHO tell what is happening and what we need to watch. So far really no movement and I believe that may dictate about a 3-4 pt lead.
Again, I believe some of this was being set-up, at least on newsweek, to help give momentum to Kerry. One other thing, all these people talk about their Margin of Error, well none of it means anything this far out, it will be the last week that you will see probably the most balanced samples.
I am continuing in my support of the President, and I am not a bit demoralized. I am disgusted with the weak-kneed whiners who can't get behind their candidate. Feh.
Thanks for pinging me, commish. I have been avoiding the news and the forum today. I am already on BP meds and don't want to have to go back to the doctor! LOL!
I was upset during the debate too. There was no doubt the President was upset and it threw him off. He would look over at kerry (and probably the notes) and it looked like he was ready to explode. Too bad that they were on the air live or he could have called kerry on his deception.
Great rant!!!!!!!!
Ok now I get it, a "snap poll" with leaners counted in the cnadiates columns. Not as bad, still not good.
I should have also made clear that the previous poll (52%Bush - 44% Kerry) also contained a combination of both leaners and those who were definite. All the major polls do the same thing.
What I don't know is if there is a difference between a "Snap" poll and what they normally do.
"Actually, Bush dropped 5 points against Gore to dead even at 45% going into the 2nd debate. After the second debate he dropped behind. Before gaining a small lead going into the election."
EXCELLENT HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE!!! [Didn't Newsweek have GWB behind by double digits?!]
"You nailed it, thats why I never got to excited about the Gallup polls, they had too many Repbulicans in the last couple polls."
That's a good point. That's what the DU's were complaining about and even took an ad out in the paper accusing Gallup of being evangelical. What if, due to the bad publicity, Gallup overcompensated and polled more Dems than Pubbies this time around? That might explain things. It's a theory anyway.
No--you're wrong not for criticizing the debate, but because you are questioning the whole campaign based on ONE small element. Sorry, but it's so.
Bush will win.
"And when it comes to who they think is the stronger leader, those polled favored Bush by 56 percent to 37 percent for Kerry."
I am for Bush, and of course that carries some bias about things. However, if these polls are legit, I am frankly stunned. Bush didn't do great at the 1st debate, but it wasn't a stinker for him. Kerry didn't do much better in my honest evaluation. He rambled on and was hard to understand even if you have been following him. He didn't say anything new. I just can't see how Kerry could move so much so fast, based on the one debate. I wonder if there are other factors that are causing it to close? We'll have to see in another 7-10 days if this is a blip or not. The newsweek poll is definitely wacky once you see the internals. However, this one worries me more.
I saw it on CNN Headline News
I cannot understand why a poll would be legit with 10% of the respondants not even going to or eligible to vote.
Please explain.
BEAUTIFUL RANT!!!!
"Hi Dr. Deb,
Gallup in 2000, the week of 10/1 thru 10/7 Bush was behind 11 points, (40- 51 gore). It moved to 45-44 gore lead the week of 10/8-10/14. After that, the rest of October Bush had anywhere from a 5-7 point lead. It did not pick up the panic after the DUI revelation. Their poll 11/1 was a 47-45 lead for Bush. Everyone needs to simmer down."
I knew it was a double digit lead -- thank you for the historical perspective!!!!
I never questioned "the whole campaign based on ONE small element".
Nice try.
"It would be good to do a comparison with other previous Fri, Sat, Sun Gallup surveys. "
Gallup's Fri/Sat/Sun survey immediately after the RNC this year had President Bush up 7. Newsweak did that Thurs/Fri/Sat survey after the RNC that had us up 11.
Actually the poll DID include Nader.
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