Posted on 10/02/2004 1:45:56 PM PDT by tsmith130
Edited on 10/02/2004 2:53:28 PM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]
NEWSWEEK POLL: BUSH LEAD GONE
Sat Oct 02 2004 16:42:32 ET
New York-Sixty-one percent of Americans who watched the first presidential debate on September 30 say Sen. John Kerry won; 19 percent say President George W. Bush won and 16 percent say they tied, according to the latest Newsweek Poll which was conducted after the debate ended. Fifty-six percent say Kerry did better than they expected; 11 percent say so for Bush. Thirty-eight percent say Bush did worse than expected; 3 percent say so for Kerry, the poll shows.
The debate erased the lead the Bush/Cheney ticket has held over Kerry/Edwards in the Newsweek Poll since the Republican convention. In a three-way trial heat including Ralph Nader/Peter Camejo, among registered voters Kerry/Edwards leads Bush/Cheney 47 percent v. 45 percent with 2 percent for Nader/Camejo. In a two-way heat, Kerry/Edwards leads 49 percent v. 46 percent for Bush/Cheney, the poll shows.
A 62-percent majority of viewers says Kerry seemed more confident and self-assured (26% say so for Bush) and 51 percent say Kerry had better command of issues and facts (37% for Bush). Forty-seven percent say Kerry seemed more personally likeable (41 % for Bush) and 49 percent say Kerry came closer to reflecting their own views on most foreign policy issues (43% for Bush). The two were nearly even on several other points, including who came across as a strong leader (47% Kerry, 44% Bush) and who had a better plan for dealing with the situation in Iraq (45% for both). Forty percent of viewers thought Kerry was too wordy and 57 percent thought Bush was too repetitive.
Fifty-seven percent of all poll respondents say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time. Bush's job approval rating dropped two points from the Sept. 9-10 Newsweek Poll to 46 percent-a 6-point drop since the poll taken during and after the Republican convention. Forty-eight percent of registered voters polled say they would not like to see Bush re-elected but almost as many (46%) say they would.
Excerpt, the rest of the article is here: NEWSWEEK POLL: BUSH LEAD GONE
The most consistently unflappable poll has been rasmussen.
Today he has the president up by 3. He has never had the president up by more than 4. Since the convention, during all the high marks by most other polls during this period, Rasmussen has shown it fluctuating by a few from the Pres up by 1 to the Pres up by 4.
This has always been a margin of error battle, and it makes sense to continue viewing it that way.
The loss of one point today suggests a slight bump for Kerry out of the first spin crazy night of the poll. The counter-spin began immediately the next day. I expect it to be within the margin of error with the Pres. up by the skin of his teeth. Monday will tell where we stand.
JMHO.
Actually, with their standard margin of error of 4 points for each candidate, the last Newsweek poll with the 49-43 Bush lead could also have been expressed as 47-45 Kerry lead.
A close look at this week's poll shows that Newsweek
has added the "worst possible" margin of error to each candidate from their last poll - and your result is a 47-45 Kerry lead.
Get a grip..
I can't take this chicken little attitude in here. Newsweek for God's sake and you act like Moses carried it down the mountain. Damn. I've been a Repub since March, and I have more faith in Bush than some of you whiners. Geez. Grow up and stop crying and belly aching. I'm going outside to have a smoke. I hope sanity has returned by the time I get back.
She needs to also realize that if we quit Iraq early, the war on terror will get worse, not better and the chances of your son being in battle will be much greater.
BS.
100% agreed
States will follow national polls. I don't believe Newsweek though.
States will follow national polls. I don't believe Newsweek though.
I agree. That's my standard reply to silly poll scares.
I have been a little preoccupied with a sick parent...but I'm back now.
I read a while ago -- I don't think I can find the link but it was a true story -- that someone did his tour in Afghanistan and Iraq, then came home and died in a car accident.
Also remind your wife that the 3000 killed on 9-11-01 were killed in NY and Washington DC.
Also, far more people died in traffic accidents in the US, than the number of soldier died in Iraq during the same time.
"U.S. highway deaths down in 2003 to 42,643"
http://www.cnn.com/2004/US/08/10/autos.deaths.reut/
====
The point is that while it's understandable, that your wife wants to protect her son, but keeping him from going to Iraq doesn't necessarily mean he will be safer, or conversely, in a way, while there is a lot of propaganda, he is actually relatively safe in Iraq. The actual death rate is remarkably small.
And that is what her son chose for himself.
Just imagine, if we pulled out our soldiers from Iraq, which would allow terrorists to take over, than they would come here and kill many thousands of us with WMD RIGHT HERE, and it could be you, me, her, her son, anybody.
FEAR is not the answer. Doing the right thing and having faith IS.
Seems to me to be too drastic a change. It conflicts with every other survey I've seen. I'd like to see the internals on this one.
What?
I agree with both of you but I'm afraid that we are more informed than the average voters. The media will spin this Kerry debate win, albeit on form only, and the substance that Bush showed will be lost. That's why, Newsweek or not, I hate that the MSM will repeat these poll numbers and the uninformed voter will go with that.
You wrote:
Was Bush great? No. But he didn't say anything stupid that will follow him for the next month. Chill out, guys!
You are exactly right! GW will never be as smooth a talker as Slick Willie. Few are. But by his own admission people know where he stands on issues, and to me and countless others, that puts him way out in front of John F'n Kerry. We are all very fortunate that GWB was CIC on 9-11. He led well then. He leads well now. He will lead well in the future.
Bush has always had "ummm" pauses when he is speaking...he seems to need a bit of time to collect his thoughts especiallly with complex conversations. Many males have this problem...it has to do where the speach centers are in male brains verses female brains. Males will do well with prepared speaches and rehearsed come backs...(ala Kerry) but not as well on the whole with off the cuff speeches as women do.
The emperor Claudius was seen as some-what of a plodding slow of tongue administrator...yet ironically he was probably one of the best ruling emperors who actually balanced the empire's financial affairs and was popular with his soldiers.
Let us not forget Moses, who also was slow of tongue and halt of speech! The Bible speaks of controversey that various folks would have with his style of leadership...there were times he didn't want to be there either.(In reference to your post regarding Bush's demeanor).
Unfortunately, Bush spent the day before the debate having to do presidential stuff...I'd be tired and frazzled too!
LOL, I didn't mean everyone who signed up since the CBS mess. I know alot of people came here after that feeling like they found a home, which is great.
But the live thread the other night had several brand new (that day or day before), people saying "Woe to me, Bush is done." It was pathetic.
The sad thing was, the thread was so incredibly slow, I gave up even trying to respond to them or anyone on the thread.
BTW, I just realized you said you switched parties! Very cool.
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