" Don"t let the girlymen freak you out!"
Posted on 10/02/2004 1:45:56 PM PDT by tsmith130
Edited on 10/02/2004 2:53:28 PM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]
NEWSWEEK POLL: BUSH LEAD GONE
Sat Oct 02 2004 16:42:32 ET
New York-Sixty-one percent of Americans who watched the first presidential debate on September 30 say Sen. John Kerry won; 19 percent say President George W. Bush won and 16 percent say they tied, according to the latest Newsweek Poll which was conducted after the debate ended. Fifty-six percent say Kerry did better than they expected; 11 percent say so for Bush. Thirty-eight percent say Bush did worse than expected; 3 percent say so for Kerry, the poll shows.
The debate erased the lead the Bush/Cheney ticket has held over Kerry/Edwards in the Newsweek Poll since the Republican convention. In a three-way trial heat including Ralph Nader/Peter Camejo, among registered voters Kerry/Edwards leads Bush/Cheney 47 percent v. 45 percent with 2 percent for Nader/Camejo. In a two-way heat, Kerry/Edwards leads 49 percent v. 46 percent for Bush/Cheney, the poll shows.
A 62-percent majority of viewers says Kerry seemed more confident and self-assured (26% say so for Bush) and 51 percent say Kerry had better command of issues and facts (37% for Bush). Forty-seven percent say Kerry seemed more personally likeable (41 % for Bush) and 49 percent say Kerry came closer to reflecting their own views on most foreign policy issues (43% for Bush). The two were nearly even on several other points, including who came across as a strong leader (47% Kerry, 44% Bush) and who had a better plan for dealing with the situation in Iraq (45% for both). Forty percent of viewers thought Kerry was too wordy and 57 percent thought Bush was too repetitive.
Fifty-seven percent of all poll respondents say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time. Bush's job approval rating dropped two points from the Sept. 9-10 Newsweek Poll to 46 percent-a 6-point drop since the poll taken during and after the Republican convention. Forty-eight percent of registered voters polled say they would not like to see Bush re-elected but almost as many (46%) say they would.
Excerpt, the rest of the article is here: NEWSWEEK POLL: BUSH LEAD GONE
"1,013 registered voters on Sept. 30-Oct. 2"
Are they actually saying they polled on a SATURDAY MORNING???? Yeah, they're gonna find a lot of Republicans home!
In this case I'm more inclined to believe Rasmussen.
" Don"t let the girlymen freak you out!"
I think your post illustrates the importance of keeping a consistent clear lead in all polls, regardless of how big that lead is. I'll risk a guess that short of any earthshaking developments, Bush will squeak by again if he continues to perform the way he did on the debate and merely "stay on message" until voters know what will come out of his mouth before he does. The main thing that the debate did was get Kerry supporters out of their funk. That's bad for any Republican presidential candidate, because "political inertia" is almost always with the Democrats no matter how united and enthused they are. Bush needs to win on all fronts. Blowing off the debates may not prevent his reelection, but it's still completely unacceptable. His political standing is a major factor in the future health of his party and the direction it takes. Since he can't control the other factors, he needs to win big, not just get by every four years.
I don't trust any poll.
Going into this everyone on tv was saying Kerry had to win this one to stay viable. So it was expected that those in the media would make it so. To have something to talk about.
I can't see how he could have possibly won anything considering everybody with an opinion has said Bush won on substance.
AMEN! Suddenly, with ONE poll, we've got soup lines, a dust bowl choking our blackened lungs, mayhem in the streets, and "Swing low, sweet chariot" playing in the background. It's ridiculous.
Many challengers to the incumbant have gotten a late surge before going down in flames. Jimmah Cahtah comes to mind.
The Jackass Spin Machine is now in full-bore spin mode. By the end of the month, they will be so desperate for good numbers that if they find three people and one of them supports Lurch, they will call it a bounce.
The wrong direction numbers are at 57% in the newsweek poll. A totally unexplained shift, odd sample.
Most undecideds were opposed to the Iraq war, but did not like Kerry at all. Kerry appeared polished and serious in the debates and it won over a lot of those undecideds.
I expect to see the gender gap explode again with women moving strongly for Kerry. If we win this one, it will be by the skin of our teeth.
Nice you have opinions. Too bad the average voter doesn't seem to agree with you.
And Kerry "WON" the debate? Gallup Poll Debate Scorecard
Best of the Web Today - October 1, 2004 ^ | 10/01/04 | By JAMES TARANTO
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1233390/posts
CNN/Gallup poll Debate scorecard
Kerry/Bush
Expressed himself more clearly 60%/32%
Had a good understanding of the issues 41%/41%
Agreed with you more on the issues you care about 46%/49% Was more believable 45%/50%
Was more likable 41%/48%
Demonstrated he is tough enough for the job 37%/54%
Gallup Poll post 1st 2004 Election Debate
(Excerpt) Read more at opinionjournal.com ...
OhGeorgia is really John Kerry
"Like father, like son", at least his father looked and sounded presidential.
Escaped from the asylum I see.
Definitely points to an artificial bump here. The debate was about National Security, and Bush still holds a commanding lead in all things military and foreign policy. If, as the MSM tells us, Kerry won the debate shouldn't that mean he leads Bush in these areas? Something fishy about this poll. My guess is they called moveon.org and just polled everyone who was in their office.
Nice you have opinions. Too bad the average voter doesn't seem to agree with you.
And Kerry "WON" the debate? Gallup Poll Debate Scorecard
Best of the Web Today - October 1, 2004 ^ | 10/01/04 | By JAMES TARANTO
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1233390/posts
CNN/Gallup poll Debate scorecard
Kerry/Bush
Expressed himself more clearly 60%/32%
Had a good understanding of the issues 41%/41%
Agreed with you more on the issues you care about 46%/49% Was more believable 45%/50%
Was more likable 41%/48%
Demonstrated he is tough enough for the job 37%/54%
Gallup Poll post 1st 2004 Election Debate
(Excerpt) Read more at opinionjournal.com ...
I suspect you will see just the opposet. I suspect Kerry will lost a point or 2 of the women vote. His "It's all about me" cocky speaking style is NOT going to be very appealing to women.
Check me out. I signed up before the debates. I switched parties because the dims are filling up with commies and liberals. Not my cup o tea.
What's unbelievable is your idiotic "analysis".
According to Drudge the poll shows Kerry with 47% to W's 45% in a three way race (which it will be) and, though Drudge doesn't mention it, Kerry's "lead" has to be well within the margin of error which is typically 4%.
The MSM should report this as a "Dead Heat" but will they? NOT A CHANCE IN HELL!
Oh, interesting comment. Did you vote for his father?
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