I think your post illustrates the importance of keeping a consistent clear lead in all polls, regardless of how big that lead is. I'll risk a guess that short of any earthshaking developments, Bush will squeak by again if he continues to perform the way he did on the debate and merely "stay on message" until voters know what will come out of his mouth before he does. The main thing that the debate did was get Kerry supporters out of their funk. That's bad for any Republican presidential candidate, because "political inertia" is almost always with the Democrats no matter how united and enthused they are. Bush needs to win on all fronts. Blowing off the debates may not prevent his reelection, but it's still completely unacceptable. His political standing is a major factor in the future health of his party and the direction it takes. Since he can't control the other factors, he needs to win big, not just get by every four years.
Nice you have opinions. Too bad the average voter doesn't seem to agree with you.
And Kerry "WON" the debate? Gallup Poll Debate Scorecard
Best of the Web Today - October 1, 2004 ^ | 10/01/04 | By JAMES TARANTO
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1233390/posts
CNN/Gallup poll Debate scorecard
Kerry/Bush
Expressed himself more clearly 60%/32%
Had a good understanding of the issues 41%/41%
Agreed with you more on the issues you care about 46%/49% Was more believable 45%/50%
Was more likable 41%/48%
Demonstrated he is tough enough for the job 37%/54%
Gallup Poll post 1st 2004 Election Debate
(Excerpt) Read more at opinionjournal.com ...