Posted on 10/02/2004 12:20:14 PM PDT by demlosers
For John Kerry, the good news is that he looked good and sounded good during the first debate. The bad news is that he did not say anything that will attract undecided voters or peal off Bush’s voters. The really bad news is that Kerry made three serious gaffes that virtually ensure his defeat.
Let’s start with the good news. Kerry’s “tan-in-a-can” orange glow had calmed down enough that he looked reasonably good. His $250 haircut was nice. He spent the afternoon before the debate getting a manicure, which evidently helped him appear rested and relaxed at the debate. As an added bonus, his hands looked great.
Seriously, Kerry was helped – as all challengers are – by standing on the same stage with the President and sharing the venue. Kerry looked relaxed and surprisingly kept his answers short. He successfully avoided sounding like the shrieking Howard Dean.
On style and presentation, Kerry won. Bush was fine, but Kerry was smooth. Bush will never be a smooth talker. So Kerry gets the nod for presentation. The bad news for Kerry is that he was poor on substance, which was Bush’s strength.
Kerry misrepresented the facts numerous times. For example, he charged that Bush diverted forces from Afghanistan to Iraq. Yet, the commander of both the Afghanistan and Iraq operations, now retired Gen. Tommy Franks, has unequivocally stated that is false. Kerry asserted that Iraq has cost more than $200 billion. But that is almost double the actual cost as determined by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.
Kerry disingenuously denied that he had ever accused Bush of lying about Iraq, but on at least two occasions Kerry has said Bush “lied.” One such incident was reported in Kerry’s hometown newspaper. Kerry also asserted the President hasn’t made bridges and subways safer and provided as evidence that “they had to close down the subway in New York when the Republican Convention was there.” But the subway was not closed. I rode the subway during the convention.
Aside from the false “facts” Kerry used, he had a bigger problem. In 90 minutes of debate, Kerry never said anything that would expand his support beyond his current base. Kerry continues to try to have it both ways – calling it “the wrong war” and “a catastrophic mistake” and also telling us that he can do it better. Do what better? The wrong war? The catastrophic mistake? His loyal supporters will give him a pass, as will the “mainstream” media, but most Americans will be unwilling to trust the safety of their children to a man who can’t make up his mind about whether deposing Saddam was a good or bad.
Kerry continually referred to having a better “plan” than President Bush, but never described it in clear, unambiguous terms. Beyond knowing that Kerry believes Bush has made big mistakes, it is not clear what Kerry thinks should be done. As nearly as I can tell, he plans to do what President Bush is doing – train Iraqi defense forces and quell the terrorists who are trying to disrupt the upcoming elections. Only Kerry promises to do it better. That is a rhetorical line, but it is not a plan.
Kerry was very clear, however, in stating his belief that summits were a big part of his plan. Kerry said, “I know I can do a better job in Iraq. I have a plan to have a summit with all of the allies.” When asked how he would resolve problems in Iraq, North Korea and elsewhere in the world, Kerry promises more meetings. President Bush has held such summits, but more importantly, Bush has taken action. Bush understands that terrorists don’t respond to meetings. Kerry hasn’t figured this out yet.
Each time Kerry said, “I've had one position, one consistent position” on Iraq, he reminded Americans of three things – (1) that Kerry vacillates almost weekly on Iraq; (2) that even last night, Kelly never outlined a clear, unambiguous plan for Iraq or for America’s security; and (3) that Kerry has vacillated so much and for so long he has grown blind to his habit.
Kerry excused his vote against the $87 billion to supply body armor and other supplies to our troops in Iraq by saying, “when I talked about the $87 billion, I made a mistake in how I talked about the war.” Kerry thought his rehearsed sound bite was clever. But he missed the point. His mistake was not how he talked, but how he voted. His words were not the problem. His vote – to deny troops in the field body armor and vehicle armor and other needed supplies – was the problem.
Even Kerry once understood this. One month before he voted against the $87 billon, CBS asked how he would vote on the troop-funding bill. He responded, “I don’t think any Senator is going to abandon our troops and recklessly leave Iraq to whatever follows... That’s irresponsible… I don’t think anyone in the Congress is going to not give our troops ammunition, not give our troops the ability … to defend themselves. We’re not going to cut and run…” Obviously, John Kerry’s word doesn’t mean much.
Kerry said throughout the debate “the president made a mistake in invading Iraq.” But when asked if “Americans are now dying in Iraq for a mistake?” Kerry said, “No.” Which is it? If Kerry is correct that the war is a mistake, then anyone who has died fighting that war died for a mistake. But, John Kerry wants to have it both ways – be for and against the war. This is not leadership and America knows it. If Kerry meant to convince us that he is ready to lead America, he missed the mark.
Kerry asserted Bush is wasting billions in Iraq that could be better spent in America on health care and prescription drugs. But then he tried to reassure us, “I'm not talking about leaving. I'm talking about winning.” Which is it? Spend the money on health care or win the war? Take your pick, Senator, but you can’t have it both ways.
Kerry continued to argue that he would be a more effective diplomat than Bush, but Bush shot that claim down rather easily. Bush asked how Kerry could rally foreign leaders to help in Iraq when Kerry has called it a “catastrophic mistake,” and the “wrong war at the wrong time.” Why will foreign leaders who haven’t helped us yet, suddenly commit their nation’s blood and treasure to help in an action Kerry has clearly condemned as a mistake and a waste?
Kerry has shamefully belittled our most loyal allies, calling them the “coalition of the coerced and bribed.” Additionally, when Iraq’s Interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi spoke to a joint session of Congress to report on progress in Iraq, Kerry didn’t attend, but pushed his way onto camera to blast Allawi for not grasping how bad things are in Iraq. Kerry’s campaign even mocked Allawi as a “puppet.” Most Americans understand you can’t belittle and mock your allies and then claim to be a better diplomat.
But Kerry’s biggest problem is that he made a number of serious gaffes that will haunt him in the campaign and significantly contribute to his defeat.
First, Kerry criticized President Bush for not having a plan in Iraq, saying, “You don't take America to war unless have the plan to win the peace. You don't send troops to war without the body armor that they need." Later, he said, “Help is on the way.” This was a huge blunder. Kerry voted against the $87 billion to fund body armor and supplies for the troops. By his own admission, he was registering a “protest vote” over a tax cut he disliked. We are to conclude that the man asking us to trust him with the safety of our families thinks it is okay to deny body armor and other needed supplies to our troops because he didn’t get his way on a tax bill? Little wonder folks don’t trust Kerry to defend them.
Second, Kerry’s discussion of nuclear proliferation revealed a shocking “blame-America-first” bias. He started his answer by correctly identifying the danger of nuclear proliferation among rogue nations. But then Kerry went on to lament that America is conducting research on “bunker-busting nuclear weapons” as if America cannot be trusted with such things. It is self-evident why Iran and North Korea should not have nuclear weapons. But why would Kerry object to America’s continued research on such things? America is a fundamentally good and responsible nation. Currently, Iran and North Korea are not. We protect and liberate. Others enslave and dominate. It is alarming that John Kerry does not understand this distinction. It is reason enough for Americans to reject him out of hand.
Third, when asked what he thought of a preemptive war, Kerry said he would “do it in a way that passes the test, that passes the global test…” Kerry came right out and said what most Americans already feared – John Kerry will protect America only if the rest of the world approves.
President Bush didn’t think much of Kerry’s “global test.” Bush stated clearly, “My attitude is you take preemptive action in order to protect the American people." Period. No global tests. That is the election. Kerry says he’ll protect America if France says he can. Bush will protect America, regardless of what foreign leaders say. If voters understand this difference, the election is over and it won’t be close.
America is not going to elect a man who believes he must satisfy “global tests” before protecting our families from another 9/11. America is not going to elect a man who believes America cannot be trusted with new “bunker-buster” bombs. America is not going to elect a man who believes it is acceptable to register a protest by voting to deny the troops the supplies they need to defend themselves and protect America.
The bottom line is that Kerry did an excellent job securing the left wing of his party. He also probably secured roughly 42% of the vote in the general election. And he did it all with style. But that’s not enough to get him elected.
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Mr. Landrith is a graduate of the University of Virginia School of Law, where he was Business Editor of the Virginia Journal of Law and Politics. He had a successful law practice in business and litigation. In 1994 and 1996, Mr. Landrith was a candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives from Virginia's Fifth Congressional District. He served on the Albemarle County School Board. Mr. Landrith is an adjunct professor at the George Mason School of Law. He is recognized as an authority on constitutional law and jurisprudence, federalism, global warming, and property rights.
Cogent, thorough analysis. Although every item you mention
is enough to sink Kerry, the GLOBAL TEST is his most deadly
misque.
Let's just beat that one with every statement Kerry
makes. Kerry says he has a plan. OK, does it pass the GLOBAL TEST. ect., ect.
I was feeling pretty down yesterday, but now I'm over it. I still say Bush needs to do much better in the next two debates, but I no longer think Thursday night was fatal.
Most likely one of the reasons that the Bush camp agreed to go with 3 instead of 2 debates was just the point you made.
Kerry is a walking talking gaffe making machine.
There is not one week that goes by where Kerry doesn't sticks his foot in his mouth.
"By his own admission, he was registering a “protest vote” over a tax cut he disliked. We are to conclude that the man asking us to trust him with the safety of our families thinks it is okay to deny body armor and other needed supplies to our troops because he didn’t get his way on a tax bill? Little wonder folks don’t trust Kerry to defend them."
By his own admission, then, he hates tax relief more than he hates terrorists.
He is the wrong candidate, at the wrong time, in the wrong country.
Then add in the his quotes to KILL the Bunker busters and missile defense systems. If done right it will look like sKerry is leaving the US or Israel wide open for a nuke attack by Iran.
The RNC could (will) make several commercials from Kerry's performance.
On the other hand, W was disciplined and didn't get off message, didn't make any mistakes, didn't give the dems anything to use against him.
Let them think they won the debate. Let them enjoy their little delusion. Karl Rove is a genius!
Kerry got the questions beforehand. Look at the transcript.
At one point he says to Lehrer, "I understand we'll be discussing homeland security later."
How did he know that?
Yes, I remember him saying that. I fleetingly said to myself "how does he know"? ....then I dropped the thought as the debate went on.
kerry had huge gaffes, but Bush just stood there and didnt call him on it.
MY PLAN FOR WINNING THE WAR ON TERROR IS TWO-PRONGED: ONE, I WILL HAVE A SUMMIT, THEN
TWO: I'M GOING TO HAVE JOHN EDWARDS SUE THE $HIT OUT OF OSAMA!
Did anybody else get the same impression of Kerry's remarks?
From what I hear, Osama's already submitted his absentee ballot for Kerry.
Well, he said a lot of crap Thursday & our side did nothing to use it against him, they let it slide.
What are they waiting for?
Don't count on that.. Oprah has just activated the ditz vote.. Millions of "super feelers" feel very stongly about whatever Oprah is "feeling".. and since Dr. Phil is her "bitch".. him too. Add cBS, nBS, aBS and of course pBS.. and we're talkin serious propaganda.. Women have been bred to be "dupes" for thousands of years.. kind of like domestic dogs and cats.. they are what they are.. Why does a "pointer"(dog) point.?. He can't help it.. Any normal dog would run after birds.. but pointers just assume that ridulous stance when "senceing" a bird.. like democrats eyes glaze over when presented "THE TRUTH"... They can't help it..
Excellent analysis.
That all sounds good, but don't most polls show undecideds breaking 2 to 1 for Kerry?
All President Bush has to do is step aside and skerry will continue to shoot himself in the foot...over and over again. ;o) What an absolute bozo skerry is!!!
Really? You got a link?
Like this?
Perhaps the most famous or infamous goal ever to have been scored in FIFA World Cup[tm] history: in the quarter-final between Argentina and England, Diego Maradona beats Peter Shilton to a high ball and scores... with his hand! The Albiceleste number ten later refers to it as the "hand of God" by way of a justification. The goal unlocked the door to the semi-finals and eventual success for Argentina.
My wife, no political junkie, and I watched the debates. I thought Bush was thrashed. My wife said that no unbiased woman in America would trust Kerry with the safety of her children.
I think she was right.
I wouldn't let Kerry get any momentum out of the debate, they should hit him hard over his outright lies to a National audience.
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