Posted on 10/01/2004 1:23:29 PM PDT by drangundsturm
Trading activity at Tradesports.com and IEM indicate that online traders, who bet on the outcome of political events, do not consider the purported Kerry debate "win" to be significant in the election. Both markets sold off the Bush election futures in the days before the debate to lock in very high profits from a Bush contract run-up last week, but Bush's stock has been rising all day today, even while the mainstream media continues to tout reaction polls that declare a Kerry "win".
As of this post's time, Tradesports.com has the probability of a Bush election win at 65.9%, and IEM has the probability of Bush receiving more than 50% of the two-party popular vote at 61.8%. These levels are off of Bush's recent highs but are still dramatically in his favor this far from the election.
While it may appear that there is an arbitrage available due to the spread between the two markets, that is not necessarily true because it is possible for Bush to win electorally with slightly less than 50% of the two party vote, due to favorable demographic factors. Tradesports.com does have a popular vote market and it is trading within a percent or so of the IEM equivalent.
This is interesting because it indicates that the traders believe there is about a 5% chance that Bush will win the election with fewer popular votes than Kerry.
Good post! I am relieved to learn this. I love the president, however, I do not think last night was an especially strong performance.
He will do better next time!
Viva Bush!
Which candidate did you agree with more on issues you care about? Kerry 46%, Bush 49%
Who was more believable? Kerry 45%, Bush 50%
Who was more likeable? Kerry 41%, Bush 48%
And 54 percent said Bush would be tougher as president, compared with 37 percent listed Kerry as tougher.
For all you here that are weak in the knees. ;)
I think today's stock markets are voting on who they think won the debates. And the markets want Bush.
Historically, the debates don't change the outcome of an election.
"I do not think last night was an especially strong performance."
He was just being himself - I love the guy. If he started getting slick I would then become concerned. I think his sincerity, not his ability to speak, is his strong point.
We will buck you up and carry on! Use the new material Kerry gave us on a silver platter last night to once again show him for the true extreme liberal he is! Its easy folks, just keep fighting. Just like Iraq. They want to demoralize us because they cant beat us any other way. Now lets all go out there and fight!
Bush works from gut-instincts rather than a professional sales persona. He's genuine. Kerry's proving that elongated sentences will not hide his failure of instinct.
I think the market(s) are showing relief, in that Mr. Bush's performance exceeded the market's expecations and Mr. Kerry's performance only met the market's expectations.
No relocating the Iron Curtain to the right of Poland, no "Why am I here?", no heavy breathing, lurking and glaring, no looking at his watch. Kerry did manage, among other things, to relocate the HQ of the KGB from "Lubyanka Square" to "Treblinka Square." (The concentration camp in Poland.) But since he's a Dem, he gets a pass, right? Did anyone actually expect Mr. Bush to win after looking at the Gov. William Weld debate tapes? We may all have hoped that Mr. Kerry would melt down into a puddle of orange dye, Botox and makeup under the Klieg lights, but at least our guy played a game with no major errors.
Agreed, and that's really all he has to do, IMHO.
Sounds about right. Kerry won on style, but on content it was at worst a draw. I only saw the first half hour so I didn't get to hear Kerry's "global test", which if the GOP is smart they will be reminding us of frequently.
It's the typical "philosopher vs laborer" class war stuff again.
One is a doer, the other a thinker.
If you have a brain in your head, it's not real hard to choose who you want defending the country.
Real life is where all of this counts.
For instance, my ex was an intelligent "thinking" man.
He could postulate a million ways to solve a problem and all his plans sounded great yet he never actually took any action.
He could talk a good fight yet in my heart of hearts, I knew if I ever found myself in real physical danger, I'd better be able to outrun my attacker because the ex would've done nothing but "think" about how to protect me.
The husband I have now is not a "deep philosophical thinker".
He just consistently and unfailingly -does- what -needs- to be done and no matter where I am with him, I know that I am safe, no matter -what- might happen.
My life experience is but a microcosm of our country, in general.
We do not need a "great orator and brilliant global statesman" at this period of our history.
We need a resolute and willing warrior.
The enemies we face now demand such a leader.
W is that man.
On the other hand Kerry made an error with his "global test" statement. As I listen to the news summaries today, I hear Bush on the attack based on that statement and Kerry is on defense.
Yes we don't want another leader who is certain. < /sarcasm>
I was more than a little shocked that all of the questions from odl Jim boy were worded in a manner so openly negative to Bush...usually they are a bit more subtle
The MSM has been tempering any Kerry win lines. I never detected a sincere embracing of that stance, myself. I perceived a wishful thinking on their part.
The polls indicated people granted Kerry debate style but the internals gave the substance to Bush. As Kerry's lies and flawed thinking are gradually exposed, any positives will disappear.
In fact I just heard on one of the channels that Kamp Kerry is saying they do not expect the polls to "reflect 'the' win" soon.
Yeah, right. Try never.
Both Cheney and Bush are all over the Global Test line and Rush called it Kerry's "Kitty Dukakis" moment.
I was wondering if anyone caught that. LibLieSlayer Has access to polling data that said numbers actually shifted toward Bush immediately after the debate. And on a related note, I don't think we'll go into the next debate losing the battle of expectations fight. People are now truly going to expect Kerry to debate like Cicero, and for Bush to look like a chump. I'm certain that wasn't part of the B/C grand strategy, but I prefer that to the high expectations placed on Bush, and the low expectations placed on Kerry going into the first debate. Finally, it appears the stock market is very comfortable with the debate outcome (if in fact the state of the election race has any impact on the stock market).
Off topic but just saw an ad for tonight's 20/20. Sharon Bush will be on and the clip had her saying she really won't be welcomed by the other Bushes after this interview.
~sigh~
I agree on the expections now for the rest of the debates.
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