Posted on 09/24/2004 11:04:58 AM PDT by Tribemike
Rasmussen shows a 3 point erosion to Kerry today....
With Saturday ALWAYS being a big democRAT day, Bush could be trailing in his poll tomorrow.
Rasmussen's poll along with Zogby's are Kerry polls
Wow.
You should have posted this to Breaking News.
I don't think Rassmusen is a Kerry shill at all. At least his polls are somewhat consistant. Zogby on the other hand.............
These tracking polls are going to be up and down for a while still. With the debates upcoming, we'll see some swings, I think.
Should we discount the polls? I don't think so, but I think we need to watch for trends rather than base anything on one day's polling.
Of course, the only poll that really matters is the one on November 2.
False. Rasmussen posted an article on how the candidates polled on different days of the week in his polling throughout the year. Saturday is Bush's second-best day, after Friday. Kerry's best day has been Wednesday.
So whose best day is Tuesday?
what are you talking about...rasmussen shows kerry moved within two points of bush
Correct. Rasmussen is not a Kerry shill. Shouldn't accuse poor Rassy of being a shill just because you don't like his results.
Rasmussen's bigger problem is that his results appear to be unreliable and produce odd and contradictory results... just as when he produced two polls, done over the same period of time, showing Kerry with a large lead over Bush in NH, but a fairly small one in NY.
In the broader scheme of things, his results are fairly meaningless. I don't think anyone pays much attention to them outside of the blogosphere.
47% to 46%, with 7%"undecided". But the "undecideds" usually break towards the incumbent. Figure 2/3. So 47% + (2/3 x 7) = 51.67%. And the IEM vote share was last quoted as 51.8%!
Wish someone with the time could post all the polls on Monday night before the election and see how accurate they end up being.
Neither of them is lying on purpose. Zogby has expressed his leftward tilt verbally so I know that. However, I do know that in order for him to survive he won't risking making thing up.
Also, it is Zogby, who we have to *thank* for today's polls.
Up till 96, everyone used 'registered voters' as true polls, but when they were off by 20 points, Zogby's 'likely voters' method became standard. At least that is what I remember.
If they went back to those old methods than you would be shocked to know that we are most likely trailing big.
You are wrong on that score. One of Zogby's favorite tactics is to have "dramatic last minute surges" in the closing days of the campaign. Thus, he could have the race close the entire way, but then claim that Bush gained 10 points in the final two days of his tracking poll and claim he was right all along. He does this quite often, but people keep falling for it.
I believe that undecideds usually end up going to the challenger. This is why we want Bush at 50% before election day.
Do you realize that there is no statistically significant difference between todays numbers of 47.4% Bush and 46.5% Kerry and yesterday's numbers of 49.0% vs. 45.4%? That means if you took a series of polls from the same universe of voters on the same day you would likely come up with differences such as these solely due to random statistical error. Face it, there is no way to know for sure if these day to day fluctuations are real or not. Go to RealPolitics.com and use their numbers which average all the current polls. That is much better determinant of where the race is at any given point than Rassmussen or GAllup or whoever.
There are a lot of people in the polling business. If Zogby did that, wouldn't others say something? Zogby can't be keeping his methods secret; if he were we would be talking about that.
Rasmussen had Bush by 7 in 2000. His polls are a waste of time.
Kerry by three-tenths of a percent. Rasmussen concluded that there is no daily bias based on all the polling he's done this year. The biggest advantage either candidate had over the other on a given day was half a percentage point.
Excuse me but there is a difference between a poll 40 days out and one the weekend before the election. A poll taken now is basically for entertainment value, a way to get a feel for the horserace. The final polls taken prior to the election are predictions. In the final polls, Zogby and others make assumptions about turnout by party and other factors to make their final prediction as valid as they can. In 2000 the race collapsed in the last few days because Bush didnt come clean with the DUI information early on in the campaign by mentioning that he had been arrested for DUI when he was young and irresponsible. When the charges came out the final weekend there was no time for Bush to deflect the charges or voters to process them.
OIC. Whatever.
I pay attention to these numbers. I've seen Zogby regularly pull 10 to 20 point swings in the last few days of an election. He's done more polling since the 2000 election, and much of it has been wildly wrong.
Who could possibly vote for a candidate whose best day is Wednesday?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.