Burr 3 points behind Bowles in latest poll

Winston-Salem Journal ^ | September 23, 2004 | JOURNAL STAFF AND WIRE REPORT

[JohnnyZ]

RALEIGH - A new poll shows the race for the U.S. Senate in North Carolina tightening, with Republican Richard Burr closing to within 3 percentage points of Democrat Erskine Bowles.

In other polls so far, Bowles - who ran for the Senate two years ago against Republican Elizabeth Dole - has led by 8 to 10 percentage points.

But the poll for N.C. FREE, a trade group in Raleigh that tracks state elections, found Bowles with support from 44 percent, Burr with 41 percent and 12 percent undecided, according to N.C. FREE members who have seen it.

The statewide poll of more than 700 likely voters was conducted by Verne Kennedy, a pollster in Florida, before the Republican National Convention began Aug. 30 and before Burr released ads last week that criticize Bowles' support of a tax increase as a member of the Clinton administration.

The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

[MHT]

One thing that has struck me about NC and SC is that the latest influx of new residents might not be included in current polling. This was the case in 2002 Colorado and Minnesota polling--new residents living in new subdivisions with no-voting history were completely ignored by pollsters. Their addresses were not even on polling (or get-out-the-vote) registers.

I know several families, all conservative, who have chosen the Carolinas as their retirement residences precisely because they found people there to be just like themselves. The newly-retired Republican boomers might not be asked their preferences.

[NeoCaveman]

One thing that has struck me about NC and SC is that the latest influx of new residents might not be included in current polling. This was the case in 2002 Colorado and Minnesota polling--new residents living in new subdivisions with no-voting history were completely ignored by pollsters. Their addresses were not even on polling (or get-out-the-vote) registers.

Interesting. So that is why CO's polls were so screwy in 2002. The goofiness of the 2002 CO polls are why I don't believe the 2004 CO polls, as they are too negative.

[wardaddy]

I have property in NC and was born at Seymour Johnson...just got back from Avery-Watauga (flood damage was very heavy in places)

Anyhoo....how does Bowles even have a chance there?

Is Burr not a great candidate?

[MHT]

According to Michael Barone, the country's best demographer, Minnesota and Colorado are among two states that have experienced rapid population growth since the last census. These are gen-xer's who are conservative. They don't want to live in cities, but near cities, and comprise the membership of many of the new more charismatic mega-churches. Moms stay home, Dad works, they do stuff as a family, and they vote Republican. However, they weren't there in 1999-2000 to be surveyed because they were still in college, young married's, etc.

Likewise, I am curious about the younger boomers (55-ish) who have retired early and have left the suburbs of the North and Midwest for warmer climes--with golf 9 months a year. The Democrats I know like this have gone to Florida, no questions asked, no investigation of other locales. However, the conservatives have made a big deal of visiting prospective states (Arizona versus SC versus Idaho [surprisingly better weather than most people realize] versus even Montana [ski-bunnies])but this trend has happened since 2002. So......wonder what the impact of this potential relocation is on senate races....? And what will the effect be on the next set of races two years from now as we are beginning to experience the greatest influx of people into retirement that the country has ever seen? (For starters, bye-bye New England congressional seats.)

[NeoCaveman]

And what will the effect be on the next set of races two years from now as we are beginning to experience the greatest influx of people into retirement that the country has ever seen? (For starters, bye-bye New England congressional seats.)

Barry Goldwater was ahead of his time, he suggested getting rid of New England.

[Kuksool]

[I still think that Bush and Cheney should do fundraising appearances for Burr. It will take Burr some $12 million to win, in my opinion]

As I kept repeating on this site, I really hate the Presidential election to be so close. The polls are beginning to tightened up somewhat although Bush is still in the lead. This keeps GWB from giving Dr. Coburn, Mel, Coors, Thune, Lisa M, and Burr big Bush bounces. Let's face it, Dr Fletcher, Haley, and other GOP Senators would never have won their races if it weren't for the Bush bounce.

I hope the French Man has a complete meltdown on Sept 30th. The more he opens his mouth, the more swing voters are repelled by him. Thus giving Bush time to visit our embattled Senate candidates.

[Clintonfatigued]

This is VERY good news. If Burr can take the lead by mid-October, he will be praised for shrewd strategy. But I still think Bush should do a fund-raising dinner for him.

[Baseballguy]

The campaign manager of Jesse helms era commented on this. Stating in NC you only need to campaign in OCT! hehehe