Posted on 09/22/2004 9:23:30 PM PDT by StarCMC
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Bowing to political realities, Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry has canceled plans to begin broadcasting television commercials in Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana and the perennial battleground of Missouri.
The decision to shrink his political playing field reduces Kerry's strategic options -- at least for now -- in the homestretch of the campaign. George W. Bush won all four states in 2000, and Kerry can't win the White House without taking a state or two from the Republican incumbent.
While pulling back from some states that Bush carried, Kerry is still strongly competing in several GOP-leaning battlegrounds, including Ohio, Florida, Colorado and Nevada.
Ads were scheduled to begin airing Oct. 5 in Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana and Missouri as part of a $5 million investment through Nov. 2, but campaign advisers concluded Kerry isn't doing well enough in the states to justify the cost.
The campaign, which has reserved commercial time in 20 states through Election Day, notified television stations in the four states that Kerry would not follow through on his plans for the first week of October.
Plans are still in place to air ads starting the second week of October, campaign officials said, but those will likely be tabled, too.
The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Arizona, Arkansas and Louisiana are unlikely to see Kerry ads unless there is a major shift in the campaign's dynamics. Missouri is still the subject of debate inside the campaign, with some advisers pushing to advertise in the traditional swing state.
With its burgeoning exurbs and rural areas turning more Republican every day, Missouri cannot be won by Kerry in a close race, some advisers have concluded. But some think it's important for the Democrat to spend money there, forcing President Bush to defend the GOP turf.
Bush and the Republican National Committee have been advertising moderately in Arizona and Missouri. With Kerry chased from those states, Bush can shift their budgets -- $330,000 this week alone -- to states that Democratic presidential nominee Al Gore won four years ago.
Kerry spent about $15 million in the four states, half of it in Missouri, trying to put them in play. It was part of a strategy to stretch the battlefield into GOP territory, from Virginia and North Carolina in the South to Arizona in the Southwest and Nevada in the West.
Constantly shifting their strategies, both campaigns recently increased their ad budgets in West Virginia and Colorado. Bush has boosted his ads in Minnesota, Maine and Oregon -- all states won by Gore that Kerry can't afford to lose.
Ohio and Florida, with a combined 47 electoral votes, offer Kerry his best hope of claiming territory won by Bush in 2000. After that, the options dwindle to a few small states: New Hampshire, Nevada, West Virginia and Colorado.
Kerry ads are running in 14 of the 20 states in which he reserved commercial time. His schedule calls for ads to begin airing next month in Washington state and North Carolina.
Because of population shifts since 2000 that favor Republicans, Kerry could win every state taken by Gore in 2000 and would have just 260 electoral votes, 10 short of winning the presidency. Gore lost to Bush by five electoral votes, 271-267.
Kerry is no longer "strongly competing" in Ohio.
Nevada has five. Close enough.
Mama T cutting off his allowance? Heh heh heh!
Yeah, I gathered that from polls that I have heard. I don't think he is doing so well in FL either.
And Hats off to my home town Ohions for coming to their senses
there, is the crux of this article Gramma
Let me see if I got this right. Kerry wasting money in a place he can't win is a good thing because it forces Bush to spend money to hold on to it. To quote Eisenhower on the opening day of the Battle of the Bulge, "we got em right where we want em."
kerry is going to have to spend some money in Calif. BUSH is coming on strong.
The best news of the day IF TRUE, however, don't tell Courage!
w00h00!
Fla is pivotal as well
Kerry needs to pull all his ads
He would probably do better.
Please do NOT quit working for Bush. With voter fraud, anything could happen. Work like we are a little behind. It sure wouldn't hurt if Bush beat him by a wide margin so there wouldn't be a recount.
"don't understand... how does one reconcile this news with the most recent Electoral vote estimates???
www.electoral-vote.com"
The campaigns are taking much better polls.
See where they are spending their money.
Bush has already stopped spending money in many of his States knowing they were locked up.
He is now going after Kerry's
I hate to be a splash of cold water but Bush does not have this election sewed up yet.
In politics, there is a lot of time between now and Nov 2nd. A lot can happen...a large tragedy in Iraq involving many US military deaths...a poor performance by Bush in one (or more) of the debates...
Kerry is reeling from the blows but he's not down for the count yet. I expect the Democrat sleaze and fraud machine to kick into high gear early in October.
The best thing we can all do is to continue volunteering at your local B-C'04 office. I do.
"Eisenhower on the opening day of the Battle of the Bulge, "we got em right where we want em."
That was Patton who said that.
You are right we cannot become too sure of ourselves here.
He needs to pull them just because they are LIES!
"I hate to be a splash of cold water but Bush does not have this election sewed up yet.
In politics, there is a lot of time between now and Nov 2nd. A lot can happen...a large tragedy in Iraq involving many US military deaths...a poor performance by Bush in one (or more) of the debates...
Kerry is reeling from the blows but he's not down for the count yet. I expect the Democrat sleaze and fraud machine to kick into high gear early in October.
The best thing we can all do is to continue volunteering at your local B-C'04 office. I do."
absolutly correct.
The only poll that counts is Nov.2
the issue will be turnout, turnout and turnout!
From your keyboard to God's PC... I am SO SICK of Kerry ads down here in FL I'd rather have another hurricane than see any more of Kerry.
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