WASHINGTON, Sept. 19 - Senator John Kerry, who was advertising in 20 states earlier this summer, had hoped by now to be playing on a broader canvas that included more states that President Bush won in 2000.
But advertising data gathered for The New York Times by Nielsen Monitor-Plus shows that from Sept. 7 through last Thursday, Mr. Kerry was running advertisements in just 13 states. He had pulled back in seven that he had tried to make competitive, including the crucial battleground of Missouri.
Mr. Kerry actually projected a bigger television presence than his advertising buying suggested because the Democratic National Committee was augmenting it with significant purchasing of its own.
Still, there were fewer Kerry and Democratic Party advertisements in that period than spots bought by President Bush and the Republican National Committee, and they ran in fewer states. Mr. Bush was advertising in 18 states.
The president, who was still enjoying a bounce from his convention three weeks ago, was running commercials in all markets of all states in which he was competing.
Tad Devine, a chief strategist for Mr. Kerry, said the campaign's diminished presence on television in certain states should not be construed as a sign of faltering.
"We're not out, even if we're not on TV," he said. He described the campaign's strategy as "opportunistic," reserving its resources to take advantage of future opportunities.
Not necessary to excerpt as NY Times not on list. :-)
Jim Robinson's Master List Of Articles To Be Excerpted
Kerry Pulls Ads From Some States as Spending Is Limited - Katharine Q. Seelye
Senator John Kerry, who was advertising in 20 states earlier this summer, had hoped by now to be playing on a broader canvas that included more states that President Bush won in 2000.
But advertising data gathered for The New York Times by Nielsen Monitor-Plus shows that from Sept. 7 through last Thursday, Mr. Kerry was running advertisements in just 13 states. He had pulled back in seven that he had tried to make competitive, including the crucial battleground of Missouri.
Mr. Kerry actually projected a bigger television presence than his advertising buying suggested because the Democratic National Committee was augmenting it with significant purchasing of its own.
Still, there were fewer Kerry and Democratic Party advertisements in that period than spots bought by President Bush and the Republican National Committee, and they ran in fewer states. Mr. Bush was advertising in 18 states.
The president, who was still enjoying a bounce from his convention three weeks ago, was running commercials in all markets of all states in which he was competing.
Tad Devine, a chief strategist for Mr. Kerry, said the campaign's diminished presence on television in certain states should not be construed as a sign of faltering.
"We're not out, even if we're not on TV," he said. He described the campaign's strategy as "opportunistic," reserving its resources to take advantage of future opportunities.
"If we see an opening, we want to be able to take it," he said. "If the bounce continues to go down for Bush, which it will, and we come out of the debates with momentum, we'll be positioned to move."
Matthew Dowd, a top strategist for Mr. Bush, said the Kerry campaign's dwindling advertising in certain states showed that its options were narrowing.
"They're in a thread-the-needle strategy now," Mr. Dowd said. "They wanted to expand the map into our states."
But the battle is now largely in states that Vice President Al Gore won in 2000, with exceptions like Florida and Ohio. The spending data provides a snapshot of the campaigns' thinking as they were forced to make tough decisions because their spending was now limited.
Throughout the summer, the Bush and Kerry campaigns raised unprecedented amounts, $242 million for Mr. Bush and $234 million for Mr. Kerry. That allowed them to dream big and test the waters in markets that were not necessarily friendly.
But both candidates chose to use only public campaign money - $75 million - from the close of their conventions until Election Day. The Democratic convention ended on July 29 and the Republican convention finished on Sept. 2.
The spending cap has forced the campaigns to start picking and choosing where they will advertise, where they will send the candidates and his surrogates, and where they will concentrate on the so-called ground game of getting out the vote.
Television advertising is one of the most revealing measures of a campaign's strategy.
"Where their advertising dollars are going is competitive and where they aren't going, it's not competitive," said Kenneth M. Goldstein, director of the Wisconsin Advertising Project, which analyzed the Nielsen data.
Nielsen, best known for its television ratings, is using its monitoring technologies for the first time this year to track political advertising. The data covers all of the nation's 210 broadcast markets.
From Sept. 7 to Sept. 12, Mr. Kerry was advertising in a relatively narrow band of eight states. They included three big swing states - Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio - but he was also spending heavily in Wisconsin, which the Democrats barely won four years ago and where Mr. Kerry is trailing in the polls.
The other four were Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico and West Virginia. By last Tuesday, as some polls showed Mr. Bush's bounce deflating, Mr. Kerry had expanded to four more: Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada and Oregon. By last Thursday, he had added Maine.
But the Bush campaign and the Republican National Committee were advertising heavily in 18 states.
And Mr. Kerry was still off or nearly off the air in seven where he had advertised earlier: Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Louisiana, Missouri, North Carolina and Virginia.
"Pulling out of Colorado and Arizona might have had them a little bummed, but they were essentially playing with the house's money in those states," Mr. Goldstein said. "But pulling out of Missouri is a much bigger sign that the Electoral College battlefield has shrunk, and it shrinks with a clear advantage to Bush."
While the polls fluctuate, the Democratic National Committee is keeping the lights on with minimal buying in some states - notably Colorado, where polls now show Mr. Kerry running strong, and Missouri - to make it easier for Mr. Kerry to re-enter later.
"Anytime you turn off the ignition, it's hard to rev the engine back up to 60 miles per hour quickly," said Peter Hart, a Democratic pollster. "And this is a race that still has many miles to go. Attitudes are anything but frozen at this stage."
Ellen Moran, director of independent expenditures for the Democratic Party, said she expected that Kerry officials would limit their buying now to save their cash for the end game. That leaves the party with an obvious mission, she said.
"Of course we're going to go in and fight where we think the battles are being pitched," Ms. Moran said. "There are states where Kerry isn't advertising, and we think advertising there would keep the state competitive for him."
The party's presence allowed Mr. Devine to insist that Mr. Kerry had not given up on certain states. But much of this stage of a campaign involves feints as well as a refusal to acknowledge certain realities because of the terrible signal that withdrawal would send - and because in a race as close as this one, those realities could change.
Still, Mr. Dowd said that the Bush campaign was in an increasingly stronger position because it no longer had to put advertising money into the states in which the Kerry presence was dwindling.
"If they're not competing in Arizona and Missouri and Colorado, we can put those dollars into Michigan and Pennsylvania," he said, referring to two states that Mr. Gore won in 2000.
In most of the states where Mr. Kerry and the Democrats are showing advertisements, the Bush campaign and the Republicans are advertising more often and in more markets.
For example, between Sept. 7 and Sept. 12, the Kerry campaign's only advertising in Pennsylvania was in Pittsburgh, with spots that ran 114 times. In the next two days, it added small buys in Wilkes-Barre (seen 31 times), Philadelphia (8) and Harrisburg (3). By last Thursday, it had added Johnstown (66).
Combined with spots by the Democratic National Committee that ran 1,519 times in six Pennsylvania markets, Kerry advertisements were seen 1,741 times between Sept. 7 and last Thursday.
In the same period, the Bush campaign and the Republican Party ran advertisements seen 2,137 times in six Pennsylvania markets.
So far, the Democrats have not coordinated any advertisements with Mr. Kerry, while the Republican Party has coordinated frequently with Mr. Bush but has not yet unleashed any money on its own spots.
Christine Iverson, a spokeswoman for the Republican Party, said that for now the party was focusing more on organizing and getting out the vote. But no one doubts that if the president needs its money for advertising, the Republican committee is ready to pour in millions.