Posted on 09/15/2004 7:38:29 PM PDT by lainie
Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 55
Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on September 15, 2004
...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan coming closer to the northern Gulf Coast...strong winds already moving onshore...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Morgan City to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida.
At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was centered near latitude 29.3 north... longitude 88.1 west or about 65 miles south of the Alabama coastline.
Ivan is moving slightly east of north near 12 mph...and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of the hurricane will reach the coast early on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible prior to landfall...but Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...category three or higher. Occupants of high-rise buildings within the Hurricane Warning area can expect higher winds than those experienced at the surface...about one Saffir-Simpson category higher at the top of a 30-story building. After landfall... hurricane force winds could spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of the center.
People are strongly advised not to venture out from shelter during the calm conditions of the eye...as winds will increase rapidly with little or no warning when the eye passes.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles. The Dauphin Island C-man station reported sustained winds of 54 mph with a gust to 83 mph...and Pensacola Naval Air Station reported sustained winds of 51 mph with a gust to 68 mph.
The latest minimum central pressure measured by a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft was 933 mb...27.55 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center.
Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.
Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.
Tornadoes are possible over the next 24 hours in southern Alabama... the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area...and southwestern Georgia.
Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...29.3 N... 88.1 W. Movement toward...north near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 933 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at midnight CDT and 2 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 am CDT.
Forecaster Pasch
$$
Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking
this thread continuing from http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1216382/posts
I usually shop at the last minute with Peterson and can grab an empty week for 1200-2500 beachfront home or stand alone townhouse right on the beach facing the gulf.
I'm self employed so I can be very flexible.
I saw a home in called San Souci in July on a cul de sac near Luna del Mar (right before that state preserve overrun with homosexuals)...a big modern wooden structure on a high dune....I might pay the big bucks to get that one...we really liked it.
but....young folks who I guess inherited money or are married doctors buy these 2-4 million dollar beachfront homes and still rent them for say 4-5K/week. Even if you rent them for all summer and then half rent for the rest....no way can you make the nut on a 2 million dollar 20-30 year mortgage and agent fees and taxes and upkeep.
baffles me.
I can rent "caddillac" property down there for 2-4 weeks a year for 40 years and never dent that kind of expense.
I've seen folks at Perdido and San Destin buy 3 bedroom condos in 88 for 150K and today they are worth 750K minimum.
Sweet for them
Our family mountain top digs at Grandfather Mt has about quadrupled since 84 as well.
It's much harder to find economic vacation digs....maybe some inland lakes ...Possum Kingdom?
The track is way weird going southward back out, according to Wunderground. Very strange. But go figure a storm system. Perhaps ivan just doesn't like Virginia which is fine by me. As far as co-mingling with Jeanne - ain't gonna happen.
Well, the NOAA site for Birmingham is updating again, and the winds have dropped. I tried calling my cousin but there is no answer which means either his phone is out or he left for a shelter or who knows what. Have you any updates from there?
Great Lemonfish....(cobia to non-gulf folkies)
The Sand Flea was high cotton in those days....the old building is still there btw.
Yes, p/c saying the power is out in Montgomery,and Birmingham. I'm not sure if that is in areas, or city wide.
We have power outages in the County and various areas in the City.
Weatherman on Fox just said if Ivan stalls and remains in the Smokies without moving in the Carolinas, Hurricane Jeanne will come into Florida..probably SE and go into the gulf! If Ivan goes into the Carolinas, the Bermuda High weakens and Ivan goes toward the Carolinas. Right now the steering currents are moving her toward Florida.
I love parts of DeFuniak, especially the old colonials around the lake. Glad to hear your dad is ok.
You've probably seen the devastation in P'cola. Wow.
My family can't get back for days because of flooding and roads that no longer exist, there might not be power for weeks and the rumor is that school might be postponed until Novmeber.
So they're in their cars hotel hopping.
Has anyone heard anything about how Eglin AFB faired? My daughter and son-in-law evacuated down here to Orlando, and are worryed about their base house there. They don't know when they will be allowed to return. My parents, grandmother and aunt who live in Bluewater Bay (Niceville - outside of Destin) stayed put and are safe and sound. Lots of trees down and roof damage to my parents' house and to many in their development. They actually had their power restored this afternoon so they are real happy about that. I'm going to buy them a chainsaw and send it back up with my daughter and son-in-law. I have relatives up in Birmingham who lost their power and have been told it will be the 20th before it will be restored. A cousin in Auburn has been told she probably won't get her's back on until beginning of October. I'm just thankful that everyone is safe. What a brutal month we've all had.
Question for hurricane literate folks.
What am I seeing when looking at Jeanne on this link?
It almost looks like two systems merged together, but only one has the counter clockwise motion, the other just looks like really intense weather.
Can somebody give me an explanation?
Thanks.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html
It's much harder to find economic vacation digs....maybe some inland lakes ...Possum Kingdom?
Mexico Beach rentals are more economic. I hear that's the "new frontier".
Thank you for the update! I guess I just have to be patient... not my strong suit.
Sorry it took me so long to reply. We've been busy all day trying to get a hold of them. We've not heard from them since 10 30 this morning. We're a bit concerned naturally. My parents are going down there Saturday morning even if we don't hear from them. They are part of a disaster relief team and were supposed to go down there on Sept 25 but now that it's personal, they're going earlier.
They live in West Pensacola. They live off of Fairfield. Do you know where that is? It's been a couple of years since I've been there and the best I can remember is when you're on Fairfield coming from Hwy 29 going west, their neighborhood is right before you get to that split to go to the base and the beach. I just remember seeing signs saying Eglin and Pcola Beach.
Oh, btw, I have heard more since my last post. If I can remember correctly, the last I posted was everyone was okay but couldn't see the damage just yet. Well, at 10 30 am, we got a report from them and they said there was some damage on my aunt's roof. Her next door neighbor's house was damaged badly. The cousin who is the retired Marine with very bad rheumatoid arthritis lost his pool. That pool was his prized possession. They installed it for his therapy. All of their trees are down. Luckily none of the trees fell on their houses. But everyone is okay as of 10 30 this am. We have not been able to contact them on their cell phones since this am. It's nervewracking especially knowing that the storm wasn't really over til this afternoon.
While typing this out, I just remembered more specifically about where this neighborhood is. That split I was talking about, once you go towards the beach, you're on 9th Street going all the way down to where you get to this curve and you go under a small bridge and then you get ready to get on the Three Mile Bridge. God, I love that Three Mile Bridge.
Go to wwwmyflorida.com. You can find Hurricane Ivan information updates about roads, bridges, etc. Maybe there's info about Eglin.
Don't know anything for sure, but I've hear that hwy 89 doesn't exist in many places.
fwiw there are some moving picture galleries on these sites:
www.pensacolanewsjournal.com
www.weather.com
This is a very lovely area - we love it!!!
We've been very lucky, to be perfectly honest. It seems the folks on the Western shore have gotten hit worse than we have.
We've only been here a year and a half, but I've lived on DelMarVa (in Delaware) for more than 20 years - the peninsula has been very lucky in all those years.
I live in Knoxville and yes, we are getting slammed. At five pm this afternoon they had already closed our schools even some colleges for tomorrow. Luckily, we live on high ground so we shouldn't get much flooding however, we have trees all around us but we should be okay. The worst of it is supposed to hit us sometime late tonite.
It's structured a bit weirdly. The Leftmost thing is Jeanne (with an eye.) The blob on the right is just a band of Jeanne (that has produced 20+ inches of rain over Vieques.)
CNN says 8 souls lost.
Miami Herald says 13. Guess we don't know yet.
Thanks...it just looked so weird, and I wondered what I was looking at!
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