Posted on 09/15/2004 7:38:29 PM PDT by lainie
Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 55
Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on September 15, 2004
...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan coming closer to the northern Gulf Coast...strong winds already moving onshore...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Morgan City to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida.
At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was centered near latitude 29.3 north... longitude 88.1 west or about 65 miles south of the Alabama coastline.
Ivan is moving slightly east of north near 12 mph...and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of the hurricane will reach the coast early on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible prior to landfall...but Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...category three or higher. Occupants of high-rise buildings within the Hurricane Warning area can expect higher winds than those experienced at the surface...about one Saffir-Simpson category higher at the top of a 30-story building. After landfall... hurricane force winds could spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of the center.
People are strongly advised not to venture out from shelter during the calm conditions of the eye...as winds will increase rapidly with little or no warning when the eye passes.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles. The Dauphin Island C-man station reported sustained winds of 54 mph with a gust to 83 mph...and Pensacola Naval Air Station reported sustained winds of 51 mph with a gust to 68 mph.
The latest minimum central pressure measured by a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft was 933 mb...27.55 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center.
Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.
Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.
Tornadoes are possible over the next 24 hours in southern Alabama... the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area...and southwestern Georgia.
Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...29.3 N... 88.1 W. Movement toward...north near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 933 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at midnight CDT and 2 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 am CDT.
Forecaster Pasch
$$
Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking
this thread continuing from http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1216382/posts
I am thinking the geology of the terrain and the whole state going underwater.
Wow! You and your family are also in my prayers.
My Dad is in DeFuniak Springs, inland, but he still had the 100 plus winds. Said it looks like a bomb went off on his property.
This is so awful but it's good to know your family is OK.
You are so right. God bless all of those in the path.
Amen to that.
I saw that thing last September when I went down for a fishing trip.
I have a friend that lives in Laguna beach and builds houses. He said the rumor is it's some NBA player.
Whoever it is...they bought millions of dollars worth of ugly.
moving fairly quickly. tennessee getting slammed right now:
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/mixedcomposite.asp?region=c4&size=2x&ID=FFC19
Thanks! You're right. I lived on Okaloosa Island. We lived across the road from the beach on Pelican Ave. :) Very fond memories.
I rode the school bus to and from Meigs Jr. High and this one surfer kid named Todd, stood up to check the waves everyday as we went home over the bridge from Fort Walton. He'd get so excited if it was going to be a good day to surf. :)
My brother lives in the Gatlinburg area. I am concerned about the flooding.
Great news...I'm so happy for them and you!
Gatlinburg getting hit now. Under a flood watch. i've been there - God's country. prayers for them but they'll be fine, i'm sure.
Just d#@n!
I remember the Sand Flea Restaurant by the bridge. :)
The owner of this car (with the brand new non-factory installed super-duper A/C) was on TWC tonight. Said he always wanted a convertible, and now he's got one. It's great to see people keep their sense of humor despite all the mess they're in. Maybe some nice car company will see his story and send him a new car.
The cabins on the mountains around Gatlinburg are in dange or mud slides. Lets pray for these people.
I just had a strange thought. Remember the current track of Ivan going SE? What if it meets up with Jeanne in the Atlantic?
Those of us down here in SC get REALLY FREAKING WET, that's what happens! Oy.
This could be really, really ugly.
}:-)4
I have no idea...I assume the stilt houses got flooded beneath.
The new large condo high rises prbably did ok(?)
the dunes have never recovered since Frederic in my opinion.
once, the dunes on Fort Morgan road rivaled Destin and South Walton.
yep...see 906.
I just asked this question before looking at your tracks....a strange situation. Maybe Ivan will be tapped out by then? We won't need the extra rain! Someone on TWC should address this...maybe Swartz, tonight.
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