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Hurricane Ivan -- Thursday 9/16 thread [Landfall!]
NWS/NHC, various | 9/16/2004

Posted on 09/15/2004 7:38:29 PM PDT by lainie

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 55

Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan coming closer to the northern Gulf Coast...strong winds already moving onshore...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Morgan City to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida.

At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was centered near latitude 29.3 north... longitude 88.1 west or about 65 miles south of the Alabama coastline.

Ivan is moving slightly east of north near 12 mph...and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of the hurricane will reach the coast early on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible prior to landfall...but Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...category three or higher. Occupants of high-rise buildings within the Hurricane Warning area can expect higher winds than those experienced at the surface...about one Saffir-Simpson category higher at the top of a 30-story building. After landfall... hurricane force winds could spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of the center.

People are strongly advised not to venture out from shelter during the calm conditions of the eye...as winds will increase rapidly with little or no warning when the eye passes.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles. The Dauphin Island C-man station reported sustained winds of 54 mph with a gust to 83 mph...and Pensacola Naval Air Station reported sustained winds of 51 mph with a gust to 68 mph.

The latest minimum central pressure measured by a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft was 933 mb...27.55 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Tornadoes are possible over the next 24 hours in southern Alabama... the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area...and southwestern Georgia.

Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...29.3 N... 88.1 W. Movement toward...north near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 933 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at midnight CDT and 2 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Pasch

$$




Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

this thread continuing from http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1216382/posts


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Alabama; US: Florida; US: Georgia; US: Louisiana; US: Mississippi; US: Tennessee; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: hurricane; hurricaneivan; ivan
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To: numberonepal; Alamo-Girl; MeekOneGOP; onyx; All
Thank you to everybody who prayed with me about my precious 5 year old granddaughter.

My son-in-law called a little while ago. They had a lot of wind. Trees down and debris. It will probably be at least 2 weeks before they have electricity. SO, they are bringing my precious grandbaby up her to stay with me! AND to collect the ripping off of their lips... grrrrrrrrrrrrrr.
Again, thanks to everybody.

861 posted on 09/16/2004 3:44:50 PM PDT by exhaustedmomma
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To: Battle Hymn of the Republic

You think you would be safe in your car!

862 posted on 09/16/2004 3:46:23 PM PDT by BurbankKarl
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To: augustus713

The remnants of Ivan may erode the ridge and cause Jeanne to go a bit more North..to the Carolinas rather than Florida.

However it looks like eventually a ridge over the Eastern US will take over, so it may go N, and then reverse and head SW and hit Florida from NE to SW.

There's one (not very good) Japanese computer model that has Ivan re-entering the Gulf of Mexico after wandering the Southeast for a while.


863 posted on 09/16/2004 3:55:37 PM PDT by Strategerist
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To: BurbankKarl
Have not had time to read the thread since last night before landfall.

In upper east Tennessee, we were predicted big rain all day, but so far, just a sprinkle; not enough to wet the ground.

864 posted on 09/16/2004 3:57:26 PM PDT by don-o (Stop Freeploading. Do the right thing and become a Monthly Donor.)
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To: onyx

The storm is moving thru north Georgia now. The air feels warm and moist with a scent of tree sap.


865 posted on 09/16/2004 4:03:40 PM PDT by Aquamarine
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To: onyx

Wonderful, wonderful news!!!!!!!!!!


866 posted on 09/16/2004 4:07:54 PM PDT by Gabz (Hurricanes and Kerry/Edwards have 2 things in common - hot air and destruction.)
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To: onyx

Amen....that is great!


867 posted on 09/16/2004 4:08:46 PM PDT by wardaddy
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To: Strategerist; independentmind; Wu

i don't get this at all. Circling back south???
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200409.html


868 posted on 09/16/2004 4:10:44 PM PDT by southriver4
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To: Strategerist

Any chance for it to circle around and re-enter the Gulf for seconds?


869 posted on 09/16/2004 4:11:47 PM PDT by augustus713
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To: beckybea

I usually always rent from Dale Petersons right there in the curve by Luna del Mar (excellent Mex food).

I love South Walton for family summer vacations.


My daddy always took me to Destin (hometown Jackson MS) as a boy fishing in the late 60s and early 70s.

Aside from a few tiny communities like Grayton and the old Seagrove market, Old 98 and 30-A were pretty desolate tween Panama City and Ft Walton.....at nite, you'd go miles without seeing lights.

Destin only had the old two story Holiday Inn motel and the best food was at the Sand Flea by the bridge to Ft Walton.

The old Florida Coppertone ad days....when folks went there for Cypress Gardens and Silver Springs and there was no mouse. I loved it. I'm glad to take my kids down as well.


870 posted on 09/16/2004 4:14:05 PM PDT by wardaddy
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To: lainie
Commmish checking in!!! Power was just restored to Casa de Commish after losing it about 6 this morning. Lost 2 trees in the front yard (they were babies, might be able to replant them), other than that no damage at all.

Wife's father lost his roof in Enterprise, already has had the roofers out and has in patched and sealed!!! WOW!

Brother in Ft Walton Beach called earlier --absolutely no damage what so ever. No power , no water, but other than that everything is fine --- Bless the lord.

Stepsons father did not fare as well -- Home in Fairhope has a tree through it, and the new house in Gulf Shores has been completed destroyed :-(

But the important thing - NO INJURIES TO ANYONE IN THE FAMILY!!!! We are truly blessed, material things can be replaced!

871 posted on 09/16/2004 4:17:58 PM PDT by commish (Freedom Tastes Sweetest to Those Who Have Fought to Preserve It)
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To: commish

Wonderful news (except of course the loss of power and property)

But you are so correct - material things can be replaced - that no one was hurt is really all that matters.

The power of prayer is absolutely awesome.


872 posted on 09/16/2004 4:23:28 PM PDT by Gabz (Hurricanes and Kerry/Edwards have 2 things in common - hot air and destruction.)
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To: wardaddy; All

Has anyone seen any reports from Fort Morgan, AL?


873 posted on 09/16/2004 4:26:34 PM PDT by MagnoliaMS
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To: southriver4
I saw that on my local news tonight!!!


874 posted on 09/16/2004 4:32:47 PM PDT by Howlin (What's the Font Spacing, Kenneth?)
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To: onyx

Have followed your story since the hit on the Caymans. Have sent prayers heavenward for your family and for you. So glad they are on their way to you. PTL


875 posted on 09/16/2004 4:41:38 PM PDT by messenger4
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To: wardaddy

Our house is about 3 or 4 miles from the Luna del Mar. Know what you mean about desolate. When I was a child there was nothing there, I mean nothing. In Panama City Beach there were quonset huts the military left used as rentals, a few mom and pop motels and miles and miles and miles of pristine white beach. I love it there.

So far have not been able to find any information about Hwy. 30A.


876 posted on 09/16/2004 4:42:42 PM PDT by beckybea
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To: commish

God bless you all.


877 posted on 09/16/2004 4:51:29 PM PDT by southriver4
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To: onyx
Well, praise the Lord for answered prayers!

Glad she's o.k. - no wonder you're numb, it's just the reaction after the panic's off.

FWIW, we've got it now, but compared to your daughter's ordeal, our afternoon has been like a walk in the park - no power and the yard flooded out, but we got the generator started and the culvert unstopped, so all is well now .

878 posted on 09/16/2004 4:51:36 PM PDT by AnAmericanMother (. . . Ministrix of ye Chace (recess appointment), TTGC Ladies' Auxiliary . . .)
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To: Howlin

Don't get me wrong... here on the south river at the foot of the blueridge, this is fantastic news. It's just so WEIRD!


879 posted on 09/16/2004 4:52:54 PM PDT by southriver4
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To: Howlin

Would love to know from our weather geek friends here, how in the world does this system turn like this? It's just amazing.


880 posted on 09/16/2004 4:54:28 PM PDT by southriver4
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