Posted on 09/15/2004 7:38:29 PM PDT by lainie
Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 55
Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on September 15, 2004
...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan coming closer to the northern Gulf Coast...strong winds already moving onshore...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Morgan City to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida.
At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was centered near latitude 29.3 north... longitude 88.1 west or about 65 miles south of the Alabama coastline.
Ivan is moving slightly east of north near 12 mph...and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of the hurricane will reach the coast early on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible prior to landfall...but Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...category three or higher. Occupants of high-rise buildings within the Hurricane Warning area can expect higher winds than those experienced at the surface...about one Saffir-Simpson category higher at the top of a 30-story building. After landfall... hurricane force winds could spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of the center.
People are strongly advised not to venture out from shelter during the calm conditions of the eye...as winds will increase rapidly with little or no warning when the eye passes.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles. The Dauphin Island C-man station reported sustained winds of 54 mph with a gust to 83 mph...and Pensacola Naval Air Station reported sustained winds of 51 mph with a gust to 68 mph.
The latest minimum central pressure measured by a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft was 933 mb...27.55 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center.
Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.
Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.
Tornadoes are possible over the next 24 hours in southern Alabama... the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area...and southwestern Georgia.
Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...29.3 N... 88.1 W. Movement toward...north near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 933 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at midnight CDT and 2 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 am CDT.
Forecaster Pasch
$$
Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking
this thread continuing from http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1216382/posts
First National Bank on Airport Blvd
Bayfront Parkway impassable
I just received a phone call from a co-worker. He has spoken with our boss who rode out the storm in Gulf Breeze Proper. Our boss' home (northwest side of the peninsula) has only sustained a little water damage, but a friend's home (southeast side of the peninsula) has holes in the roof and has flooded (don't know to what extent). Also, as expected, both bridges in Gulf Breeze (P'Cola to GB & GB to P'Cola Beach) are impassable. I tried to get more info, but that's all I know for now.
Thanks for the information. I don't know anything new.
Confirmed storm damage in Carrollton, Bremen, and Bowden, who were under a tornado warning at the time. Trees and powerlines down. Homes damaged.
Currently, Clayton, Fayette, Spalding counties under tornado warnings. Those storms are headed north toward you. Keep your eyes peeled.
You know the next wave, if any, will be named Karl, don't you. See if you can convene a meeting of the Karls and make him go out to sea?
The bank shown in the images above is very lightly constructed.The perimeter "wall" appears to be little more than glass or stucco panels hung on metal studs (sheet metal) attached to the floor joists and not even reinforced with attachments to the column. I am surprised this would pass local codes, as it would not pass the less restrictive codes in the midwest areas I am more familiar with.
Because others here have posted that the water level seen in the I-10 bridge images appears to be "30 to 40" feet above normal, I have posted an image depicting the computed extent of a 9 meter (29.7 feet) storm surge. It is located at:
http://users.in-motion.net/~jefft/tech/Mapping/afghanistan/9msurge2.jpg
The original image, depicting a 4 meter (13.2 feet) surge is still located at:
http://users.in-motion.net/~jefft/tech/Mapping/afghanistan/4msurgetext.jpg
Note that in both images the surge elevation calculations were applied to the entire image, while in reality, the surge would probably peak just east of the eastern extent of the eyewall and gradually taper off in both directions.
Absolutely. No Doritos or cookies?? What are they thinking??
Looks like a couple more possibles following right after the next one whatever that is named, J something.
Having just dodged Ivan with only approximately 80 mph winds and not wanting to face Jeanne, let me ask, how confident are you on this prediction?
Oh, SNAP. I forgot about what 14 feet of storm surge and 10 inches of rain might do with the local gator population. Yeesh.
I sure hope this thing doesn't park itself over the Southeast to wring out over the weekend. Those mountains do NOT need a foot of rain...the term "flooding of Biblical proportions" keeps getting thrown around regarding the Upstate.
}:-)4
Lot of power outages in Birmingham area, some street flooding and downed trees. Wind still whipping at 4 pm cdt.
So far, I've kept power. I've heard nothing that should cause you too much alarm.
Be well.
They also said they had "copious quantities" of junk food, but I figured that just went without saying. :)
Those Pensacola pictures are stunning. I visited Pensacola once about 12 years ago one summer...drove all the way down from Virginia, randomly wandering for a week, and wound up staying on the beach. It was beautiful, the beaches were fantastic, except the water was 91 degrees (!), plus there'd been an offshore storm so it was very grungy. I've always wanted to go back ever since, visit the beach at a more, er, temperate time than mid-August, and see the Naval Air Museum down there.
}:-)4
Cool...Onyx will you drive down to pick them up, or will they hop a flight to where you are?
That's probably good. Crying really helps to relieve stress that's pent up!
They've lived through a nightmare and will take time to heal emotionally.
Onyx, was she there on work permit, or had she obtained her residency...just wondering? We were there on work permit that had to be renewed every year, but we had friends on the island who were ex-pats, but had residency because of the length of time they had stayed.
sw
No, she has status.
Cayman passport as well as her US.
ALL 3 children were born in Georgetown too.
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