Posted on 09/15/2004 7:38:29 PM PDT by lainie
Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 55
Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on September 15, 2004
...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan coming closer to the northern Gulf Coast...strong winds already moving onshore...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Morgan City to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida.
At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was centered near latitude 29.3 north... longitude 88.1 west or about 65 miles south of the Alabama coastline.
Ivan is moving slightly east of north near 12 mph...and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of the hurricane will reach the coast early on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible prior to landfall...but Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...category three or higher. Occupants of high-rise buildings within the Hurricane Warning area can expect higher winds than those experienced at the surface...about one Saffir-Simpson category higher at the top of a 30-story building. After landfall... hurricane force winds could spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of the center.
People are strongly advised not to venture out from shelter during the calm conditions of the eye...as winds will increase rapidly with little or no warning when the eye passes.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles. The Dauphin Island C-man station reported sustained winds of 54 mph with a gust to 83 mph...and Pensacola Naval Air Station reported sustained winds of 51 mph with a gust to 68 mph.
The latest minimum central pressure measured by a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft was 933 mb...27.55 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center.
Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.
Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.
Tornadoes are possible over the next 24 hours in southern Alabama... the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area...and southwestern Georgia.
Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...29.3 N... 88.1 W. Movement toward...north near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 933 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at midnight CDT and 2 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 am CDT.
Forecaster Pasch
$$
Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking
this thread continuing from http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1216382/posts
It was fun tonight, and I thank each and every one of you who have helped me follow this storm.
Next time, I hope to do better.
God, I love hurricanes!
Yea there reporting Pensacola getting hit real hard.
I estimate 30 miles or so on my 2003 Rand McNally atlas.
My brother used to live in the Caymans. He says the service industries there are abysmal because they have essentially, a captive clientele. My brother needed a plumber once. He arrived three months later.
Oh good, I am glad they have a chance of getting out of there, at least. You are a good mom and grandmother.
(witchy redheaded woman talking about weather on FOX is named Fawn Boyd Vigil).
Amen to that!! Keep up the good work!
Both are towns. Gulf Shores is on Alabama coast. Gulf Breeze is on Florida Coast next to Pensacola.
They usually need some prodding...
I will consider anything under 50 miles an achievement. However, that is still not good enough.
Roof off in Pensacola was NOT the hospital but the Royal Arms Apartments, near the hospital. They also said the "flooding" at the city coliseum was greatly exaggerated.
Have been wondering how you are doing. Good to hear your daughter and kids are leaving the Caymans.
Quick turn on KFI, parody on Rather...
46.77 miles between Gulf Breeze and Gulf Shores.
I have been a meteorologist for over 20 years. Of course I love hurricanes, tornadoes and other unusual atmospheric activities.
Scientific research.
That is what we do!
HOWEVER, I hope like hell something like this never happens to my own home.
I wonder if she's into FReeping?
God, I love hurricanes!
That makes two of us...
Anyway...the very nothern edge of the storm is now passing over Huntsville, with the eye still over Baldwin County -- the nothern edge of the eye just now passing over I-10...
Nearly the whole state of Alabama is covered by Ivan.
Years ago, my family took a trip to Mobile the year after Frederic hit. The devestation that little guy did to Alabama was still very appearent a year later...
I've been fascinated by hurricanes ever since.
Joy Angela FR mailed me the notice.
I have it on! :)
GOOD to see you.
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