Posted on 09/15/2004 7:38:29 PM PDT by lainie
Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 55
Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on September 15, 2004
...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan coming closer to the northern Gulf Coast...strong winds already moving onshore...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Morgan City to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida.
At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was centered near latitude 29.3 north... longitude 88.1 west or about 65 miles south of the Alabama coastline.
Ivan is moving slightly east of north near 12 mph...and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of the hurricane will reach the coast early on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible prior to landfall...but Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...category three or higher. Occupants of high-rise buildings within the Hurricane Warning area can expect higher winds than those experienced at the surface...about one Saffir-Simpson category higher at the top of a 30-story building. After landfall... hurricane force winds could spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of the center.
People are strongly advised not to venture out from shelter during the calm conditions of the eye...as winds will increase rapidly with little or no warning when the eye passes.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles. The Dauphin Island C-man station reported sustained winds of 54 mph with a gust to 83 mph...and Pensacola Naval Air Station reported sustained winds of 51 mph with a gust to 68 mph.
The latest minimum central pressure measured by a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft was 933 mb...27.55 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center.
Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.
Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.
Tornadoes are possible over the next 24 hours in southern Alabama... the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area...and southwestern Georgia.
Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...29.3 N... 88.1 W. Movement toward...north near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 933 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at midnight CDT and 2 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 am CDT.
Forecaster Pasch
$$
Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking
this thread continuing from http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1216382/posts
My wife has family in Orange Beach ... I hope to God they got out.
Maybe he wants to see a Titans game, or perhaps it's just that wonderful Volunteer hospitality.
Next update in two hours.
My Sister and her husband, niece and nephew, are riding out the storm, in their new home in Daphne....which is right above Fairhope
I've only been "concerned" most of the day but this is exactly where I least wanted Ivan to hit. I am confident in God and his mercy but it is difficult not knowing what's going on with your mother at a time like this.
On the brighter side, my sister complained greatly about the mobile homes that were springing up across the road from her house. Looks like they won't be bothering her any more.
Yeah, he's so low key he's boring. But where is Geraldo??
AT 2 AM CDT...0700Z...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS CENTERED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.8 WEST...VERY NEAR THE
ALABAMA COASTLINE.
IVAN IS MOVING SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE ON THE COAST
SHORTLY.
2am CDT update
Me too..I wish My sister and her family had chose to leave too, but I feel they will be okay, just a miserable experience for them.
He's probably back in New Jersey continuing the fight with his condo board. He's suing them over the board's nick-picking.
My granddaughter is in Wilmer. If anybody hears anything about that area, please post info! Thanks.
Gulf Shores is in the eye right now. That's where Gary Tuchman from CNN just reported from.
The Hospital in Biloxi has suffered roof damage per 710am radio.
Unbelievable.
A woman on Nightline from New Orleans just said that they don't have enough money to properly prepare for floods "I guess because of the war in Iraq." Her words. She went on to say that they needed the money for the war against mother nature--the most important war we'll have to fight.
Nightline actually ran that. No proof that that is the case--nor could there be since New Orleans had this problem for over a hundred years before the war in Iraq.
Completely irresponsible.
The nursing home is on Hwy 98, it is east of Downtown Fairhope. My sister's house is just east of Hwy 59 north of Foley.
I'm thinking too of all the wonderful restaurants I enjoy eating at that may be worthless in the morning.
I also posted earlier about my wife's aunt and uncle in Fairhope. They decided to ride the storm out - very stupid.
That is unbelievable.
Fair is fair, but there is a difference between a "wild ass guess" and staying live on a thread when you have placed your scientific reputation on the line.
Fair distinction?
Well, New Orleans wished the French won!
We Must fight the war against mother nature!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Louisiana Purchase...
If you freep mail me I will send you the links to the battles tomorrow...NO was once french.
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