Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15

NWS, NHC, various | 9/15/2004

[lainie]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 51a

Statement as of 1:00 AM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours. Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of Ivan.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf Coast...and will be increasing today.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

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Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

[No Blue States]

"“If the water starts rising, we’ll take everybody up to the third floor and move the bar up there,” he said."

Wasnt it the 3rd floor that Ivan blew off in Grand Cayman? (the floor above where Onyxs daughter was taking shelter)

[PBRSTREETGANG]

That misses the mark of adequate storm preparation by a tad.

[BurbankKarl]

Dan Thomas, weathercaster for WDSU, pours drink at Mollys at the Market.

[AmericanMade1776]

I guess I am just a bit scared right now....this is gonna be a bugger of a storm..

[LA Woman3]

John Kerry may need to bring his swift boat down here to save these idiots!!

[Dawgmeister]

Pier at Ft. Walton is ok, Navarre Beach's is collapsing. Local News, and Weather Channel.

[agrace]

Maybe you'll luck out - my brother and his wife live in OC, talked to him last week and he said they didn't get a drop from either hurricane that hit FL and they both were west of Ivan.

Hey, make sure you go to Phillips while you're there - great food. Pricey but good. My bro's a manager for their crab house uptown. But if you happen to go to Phillips By the Sea (which is downtown), home of some very - ahem - interesting decor, be sure to check out the "monkey in a tutu" painting in the bar. It will leave you speechless, and probably confused as well.

[alancarp]

Conditions in NOLA, reported as current:

83 degrees; MOSTLY SUNNY(!)
Wind NNE at 36 mph; gusting to 38
Ceiling 8200 ft; 45% cloud cover.
(source: accuweather)

[cogitator]

Just happened to be replying to you with this, but it's for anybody watching and listening and praying:

[gopwinsin04]

[alancarp]

...but seeing the radar, rainfall to start soon in the French Quarter.

[AmericanMade1776]

Know all that area well...I am on the Alabama, Georgia line right now..Columbus. We are even going to get some of the storm here....

[dogbyte12]

My work is cancelled tomorrow. Yay. I live in Gonzales, work in Baton Rouge. We are starting to get some good gusts here. I am about 50 miles east of NOLA. Some of the trees are looking iffy right now. Power outages, downed limbs are going to be a big problem in southeastern LA. Lots of rural, tree filled properties= lots of mess to clean up this week-end.

[BurbankKarl]

Karen Carlson, anchor for WWL, pours herself a cold one.

any wonder they were relaxed for the storm.

[Moose4]

Don't forget the 1985 flood...don't know if y'all got it on the east side of the mountains, but I was in Harrisonburg at JMU and we got *hammered*. I drove down to see a friend in Bridgewater a couple of days later and the river had gone halfway through the town, flooded a car lot and dumped all the used cars upside down on a riverside playground. It was incredible.

I remember reading about that 1996 Madison County rain...wasn't it Camille-like in its intensity, 12+ inches in a few hours?

}:-)4

[kinghorse]

I was gonna say. Ft. Walton Pier is one of those combo concrete with wood blow outs like they re-did at Pensacola. Navarre is a wooden pier. That one was overdue to go bye bye.

[No Blue States]

"I guess I am just a bit scared right now....this is gonna be a bugger of a storm.."

http://www.theinterviewwithgod.com/popup-frame.html

:)

[gopwinsin04]

With times of 8-9 hours by car to Baton Rouge yesterday, I dont blame folks for staying home..

[BamaBlue]

Don't know that specifically but Mobile is about 30:41 N and 88:02 W. New Orleans is about 30:02 N and 90:01 W.

[agrace]

Yeah really! I was so busy reading the board that I failed to see that they had barely boarded the window and the doors not at all. Hopefully it was a work in progress, and the gentleman on the left was taking a break.